Is Lauria's line the best?

[twcho]

[hv=pc=n&s=s743hakda94cjt763&n=sa9hqt63dq87653ca&d=n&v=n&b=5&a=1dp2cp2dp3dp3hp4dp5dppp]266|200[/hv]

This hand was played by Lauria in Jimmy Cayne's daily match at BBO. No opposed bidding and the lead is ♠6. I wonder whether the line chosen by Lauria is the best percentage line. The actual play please refer to My link

[JLOGIC]

His line is at the very least very natural. Ruff your loser in the short hand then pull trumps...

 

I honestly would not even consider another line.

[Finch]

His line is at the very least very natural. Ruff your loser in the short hand then pull trumps...

 

I honestly would not even consider another line.

 

That's an overbid.

The first line I thought of was win the spade, A of diamonds, AK of hearts, A of clubs, Q of hearts, 4th heart.

I'm not at all convinced that's the right line (it goes off on many 5-2 heart breaks; it gains with Jxx hearts in someone's hand and two trump losers) but it's worth thinking about, just has cashing the DA before taking the heart ruff is worth thinking about.

[rhm]

It is close.

Play 2 rounds of trumps before trying to ruff the heart.

 

T1: duck spade as happened

T2: ♣A

T3: ♥A

T4: small diamond to the ♦Q with the intention of playing the ♦A next before ruffing the third heart.

(If the queen looses to the king but West plays a diamond honor you might prefer to check whether the ♥J drops in 3 rounds before playing a second round of trumps.)

 

This line looks to me a contender to Lauria's line. It is safe on all 2-2 trump breaks.

Lauria would have gone down if you switch the diamond holdings between East and West.

Of course this line could loose if there is a singleton ♦K and if East has the singleton king it would loose irrespective of the heart division.

 

Rainer Herrmann

[JLOGIC]

Stiff K in a specific hand is 6.22 % according to rpbridge. So rainers line loses immediately 6.22 % of the time, and something like 3/4ths of another 6.22%. So ~10.8% of the time. This is to pick up RHO having 2 hearts and 2 diamonds to not the king.

 

RHO having 2 to not the jack is something like 14.5%? (all of these numbers are rough from rpbridge, I don't know how to eliminate Jx). And him having Tx or Jx or JT of diamonds is like 20 %. So it seems like we are gaining only ~3 % of the time.

 

Maybe I am butchering the math but it doesn't seem close, and logically stiff K of diamonds offside or stiff K on and no HJ dropping feels much more likely than RHO having 2 small hearts and Jx or Tx of diamonds. I don't see how that is close.

[JLOGIC]

just has cashing the DA before taking the heart ruff is worth thinking about.

 

Why? Now if LHO has 2 hearts and Jx or Tx of diamonds we have given them a trump trick. Leaving the trump ace to overruff seems obvious and not worth thinking about.

 

That's an overbid.

The first line I thought of was win the spade, A of diamonds, AK of hearts, A of clubs, Q of hearts, 4th heart.

I'm not at all convinced that's the right line (it goes off on many 5-2 heart breaks; it gains with Jxx hearts in someone's hand and two trump losers) but it's worth thinking about,

 

Fair enough, did not see this possibility.

[Finch]

Why? Now if LHO has 2 hearts and Jx or Tx of diamonds we have given them a trump trick. Leaving the trump ace to overruff seems obvious and not worth thinking about.

 

If RHO has the doubleton heart cashing the DA first gains on some layouts and never loses (unless if RHO over-ruffs with the J or 10 you plan to play him for J10 exactly)

If LHO has the doubleton heart, cashing the DA first loses to Jx and Tx (2 holdings). It gains when he has J10 doubleton exactly, so that's 2:1. I'm not sure if the other 5-2 heart layouts compensate, I'm too sleepy to work it out. But I claim it's worth thinking about.

[lesh]

Stiff K in a specific hand is 6.22 % according to rpbridge. So rainers line loses immediately 6.22 % of the time, and something like 3/4ths of another 6.22%. So ~10.8% of the time. This is to pick up RHO having 2 hearts and 2 diamonds to not the king.

 

RHO having 2 to not the jack is something like 14.5%? (all of these numbers are rough from rpbridge, I don't know how to eliminate Jx). And him having Tx or Jx or JT of diamonds is like 20 %. So it seems like we are gaining only ~3 % of the time.

 

Maybe I am butchering the math but it doesn't seem close, and logically stiff K of diamonds offside or stiff K on and no HJ dropping feels much more likely than RHO having 2 small hearts and Jx or Tx of diamonds. I don't see how that is close.

 

If we compare it playing low ♦ towards the Q and then cashing the Ace, losing against singleton King as 6.22 and adding another 3/4ths of 6.22% as 10.8%, that line gains immediately in 20.34% of the cases:

J10 - 6.78, J2 - 6.78, 102 - 6.78 = 20.34% of the time.

 

And if we add a singleton King♦ in LHO - another 6.22 increases to 26.56%.

 

Not sure I calculated it correctly tho :P What do you think? :)

[gszes]

i read all the above and not sure if this LOP was covered

 

trick 1 same

trick 2 same

trick 3 heart to K

trick 4 low dia toward Q

 

the advantage of this line is that it works with all 22 splits

and whenever lho has Kxx trumps and at least 3 hearts

 

this also works when lho has the stiff K and rho has at least 3 hearts

 

if this is a repeat of the above i apologize

[TWO4BRIDGE]

i read all the above and not sure if this LOP was covered

 

trick 1 same

trick 2 same

trick 3 heart to K

trick 4 low dia toward Q

 

the advantage of this line is that it works with all 22 splits

and whenever lho has Kxx trumps and at least 3 hearts

this also works when lho has the stiff K and rho has at least 3 hearts

 

if this is a repeat of the above i apologize

Doesn't LHO with K x x only need at least TWO hearts ?

[gszes]

Doesn't LHO with K x x only need at least TWO hearts ?

 

this will indeed work when lho started with KJx or KTx planning on ruffing the heart with the

A (in case lho started with 2) and finessing lho out of remaining honor however this line will

fail if trumps broke 22 (rho starting with JT)

 

Its just gotta be more irritating to go down when trumps break 22 when to make it with

trumps 31 all u have to do is cash the dia A and if trumps 22 claim if not have lho hold

at least 3 hearts (or the J drop doubleton)