4N

[CSGibson]

[hv=pc=n&s=sj8653ha984dt72ca&d=n&v=e&b=9&a=2s(frequently%205)2n4s4npp]133|200[/hv]

 

2♠ is frequently 5, but if 5, then it will be unbalanced - aggressive but not suicidal preempting style. Opponents are a national caliber pro pair in the final of a Bracket 1 knockout.

[JLOGIC]

Pass? I expect to beat them a lot and at the very least imagine they had a misunderstanding about 4N (LHO must have 2 suits and RHO took it as nat, a pretty reasonable misunderstanding to have).

[Fluffy]

I only see 9 tricks in spades at most, so nothing to protect. Partner would need to have 4 clubs for 4♠ to make. I'd just pass.

[Mbodell]

Assuming this is IMP scoring, as bracket 1 ko tends to indicate, you are getting horrible IMP odds too. 4NT is a terrible contract for them, and 5♠ will get doubled and is nearly certain to go down at least 2 or 3 tricks. You have two A and can start leading spades, a suit you have often 11 of, sometimes only 10, and the opponents will often have stopped only once, sometimes twice. Even if you give the 5♠ sac pretty good odds like 10% down 1, 30% down 2, 40% down 3, and 20% down 4, and if you assume they will only even make 10 tricks or 9 tricks (which is pessimistic because often times if you set them you are setting them 2 or 3 or more undertricks at 100 a pop), they need to make more than 75% for you to bid on. If you make the save a little worse like 25% down 2, 50% down 3, and 25% down 4, now even if they make 90% of the time and are only down 1 the other 10% of the time it is still bad IMP odds to save.

[rmnka447]

Pass.

 

If they have made the right judgement to stop in 4 NT, so be it. You mentally tip your hat to them as top notch players and get on with the next board.

 

But, as JLOGIC points out, there is a possibility they may have had a misunderstanding. There's also no absolute guarantee that the 2 NT bidder has more than one ♠ stopper. You'll get at least a second chance to play on ♠s. If partner can conjure up a useful stopper, 4 NT may be doomed anyway. So defensive prospects are at least reasonable.

 

The worst thing would be to sac at 5 ♠ Dbld and find that 4 NT goes down. If you had just one A (where their chances of making increase quite a bit), then saccing at 5 ♠ would be more attractive. You have too much defense to do so here.

[CSGibson]

Ok, just judgement-checking. It turns out that both 4N and 4S make on this board (partner had KTxxx Kx x 9xxxx, diamonds 6-3 and clubs 5-2, 2N bidder with AQ in spades).

[fromageGB]

I see I am the only person who voted for 5♠ Maybe that's why I don't play at the top level, but I have no confidence in getting 4NT down.

[jogs]

Ok, just judgement-checking. It turns out that both 4N and 4S make on this board (partner had KTxxx Kx x 9xxxx, diamonds 6-3 and clubs 5-2, 2N bidder with AQ in spades).

 

I too would pass 4NT. Think EW can hold you to 9 tricks in spades.

East must allow West to win a diamond and lead a trump.

 

It is possible for opener to bid 5♠ if you started with a fit

showing 4♥ call. Fit showing is 9 cards in two suits. Usually

it is 5-4 with 5 in the bid suit. But it can also be 4-5 or 6-3.

[Free]

If anything I would Dbl, but I'm afraid they just had a bidding misunderstanding so I'll pass.