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not much investigation possible


Fluffy

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Clearly, your only options for the final contract are 6, 7 and 7NT.

 

RKCB is dangerous because there might be some ambiguity about your subsequent bid of 6 or 7.

 

To make 13 tricks, partner needs a trick and an entry. The A along with the 9 or the 10 works (in which case 7NT is the right spot). The K works by itself (in which case 7 is the right spot unless partner also has the A, which would make 7NT the right spot).

 

Unless you play asking bids over 4, there is no way you can find out about the K. Of course, it makes perfect sense for a simple new suit bid to be an asking bid, as the chance that you would want to play a different suit at the 5 level after a 4 opening is probably less than 0.5%. But since there are other possibilities besides partner having the K that result in making 7 or 7NT, asking for the K is not the be-all and the end-all.

 

If I have the agreement that 5 is an asking bid AND that any bid I make at the 6 level or higher thereafter is to play, then 5 is the way to go.

 

Otherwise, a simple 6 (assuming that it is to play) will have to do. I am not going to bet the house that partner has either the K or a trick and an entry.

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Is partner not allowed to hold AKQxxxxx and out or indeed AKQJxxx and 4 clubs where 7 is in the frame.

Sure, its possible that partner has that. Although if he has AKQxxxxx he needs the opps spades to break 3-2 to make 7, while I can make 7 or even 7 with very normal breaks in those suits as long as I have an entry and a trick or just the K in opener's hand. And there is certainly no guarantee that partner has 7 or 8 solid (or very close to solid) spades. Even 6 could fail if partner has a perfectly normal suit like AQJxxxxx or AKTxxxxx for his 4 opening if spades break 4-1.

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Sure, its possible that partner has that. Although if he has AKQxxxxx he needs the opps spades to break 3-2 to make 7, while I can make 7 or even 7 with very normal breaks in those suits as long as I have an entry and a trick or just the K in opener's hand. And there is certainly no guarantee that partner has 7 or 8 solid (or very close to solid) spades. Even 6 could fail if partner has a perfectly normal suit like AQJxxxxx or AKTxxxxx for his 4 opening if spades break 4-1.

I have an ask that can establish this over 4m but not over 4M - there is room in our structure for a bid which says "I have the nuts outside but no more than a small singleton in your suit" and a potential reask for stiff/void. If you're really unlucky he'll have KQJ1098xxx, void, xx, xx and you'll have a diamond loser in 6/N but no trouble in 6.

 

Funnily enough, we had a hand which could be better in 6 come up today in a match I was playing in.

 

AQJ1098xx, void, xx, Qxx

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Clear 7 bid. There are a lot of ways this can be cold. It's even good opposite KQJxxxxx xx x xx, and needs a trump to beat it when pard is 8113. And there are many other scenarios, few of which we can investigate, that make it a complete spread.

 

Shame on all the 6 bidders!

 

partner probably has KQxxxxxx x xx xx *shrugs*

I'll be content with 6 hearts.

 

I used to play 5 asked for a heart control. That works a treat here - when partner bids 5 or 6, you can bid the obvious 7, settling for 7 when partner signs off.

 

 

Funnily enough, we had a hand which could be better in 6 come up today in a match I was playing in.

 

AQJ1098xx, void, xx, Qxx

 

Anyone for diamonds?

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There's no way to know exactly what partner has except maybe 8 or 9 pretty decent .

 

If you bid 7 and it makes vs. the opponents being in 6, you'll gain 13 IMPs. If you bid 7 and it goes down vs. the opponents being in 6, you're losing 17 IMPs. The break even point is about a 56% chance that 7 makes. So you want to be pretty sure 7 makes if you bid it.

 

For 7 to make, you need a way to get rid of your loser AND bring in your suit without a loser. That seems like a pretty tall order to me.

 

I bid 6 feeling that is much more likely to make than 7 .

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On reflection, I think 5 then 7 over a sign-off should show this. If partner does something other than bid 5, that should help as well.

Should show what? A hand where you have a chance to make 13 tricks if partner's 4 opening can produce a 13th trick opposite a red two-suiter?

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Should show what? A hand where you have a chance to make 13 tricks if partner's 4 opening can produce a 13th trick opposite a red two-suiter?

 

More than a chance.

 

Dummy's clubs get discarded on his red shortage, and you ruff the club. If partner is 8122 or 8212, only a 5-1 or 6-1 break beats you. Two out of three 7321s are OK and even 7123 has play on shape alone, and partner is allowed to have a high card.

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I'd just blast 7. Partner will probably have at least A so all he needs is T, 9 or a ruff to cash it. K will also do just fine. The chance that partner will hold one of these cards is highly likely imo. Even with xx there's a chance that we can ruff the 3rd one.
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On reflection, I think 5 then 7 over a sign-off should show this. If partner does something other than bid 5, that should help as well.

The problem with this approach is that it removes the ability to make an asking bid in one off suit and then sign off in 6 or 7 of another off suit.

 

For example, suppose responder held:

 

---

Ax

AKQJxxxxx

AK

 

Wouldn't you like to ask about second round heart control before signing off in 6 or 7? This is probably a more likely occurance than asking partner to choose between two suits at the 7 level after he opens 4 of a suit.

 

After this thread was posted, I discussed the situation with my regular partner. We agreed that a simple new suit bid by responder is an asking bid, and that any subsequent bid at the 6 or 7 level is to play.

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Wouldn't you like to ask about second round heart control before signing off in 6 or 7? This is probably a more likely occurance than asking partner to choose between two suits at the 7 level after he opens 4 of a suit.

 

Yes, sure, but given that I no longer play asking bids, unlikely or not, logic dictates that 5 followed by 7 should show, of all things, hearts and diamonds. If I played asking bids here, I would still bid 5, and then bid 7 to play if partner shows a heart control and 7 otherwise, which is a huge favourite opposite 2+ hearts. So on the actual hand, it is trivial to get to the right grand using cues or asks.

 

I no longer have a clear solution to your Ax hand, but then again, no one solved the first hand correctly even when they had the tools to do so. I would try 5 cue and hopefully get a 5 cue in response. I need partner to realise that my first bid is a cue OR natural and forcing to avoid strain issues.

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