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How do you defend?


Hanoi5

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[hv=pc=n&w=sj82ht95dk94caq84&n=sakq7hkdat852ck62&d=w&v=b&b=4&a=p1d3hppdp3sp4sppp&p=hthkhah2hqh3h5s7sah4s3s2d2d7dqdk]266|200[/hv]

 

What do you play at this point? It's MP's, do you plan to defeat?

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I can not see how you can beat this contract unless partner has bid 3 on a six card suit, which is possible with the void in spades.

But how can it hurt to cash the A before continuing hearts?

This could also possibly work if partner has seven hearts and J7 doubleton.

 

Rainer Herrmann

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I can not see how you can beat this contract unless partner has bid 3 on a six card suit, which is possible with the void in spades.

But how can it hurt to cash the A before continuing hearts?

This could also possibly work if partner has seven hearts and J7 doubleton.

 

Rainer Herrmann

 

Could partner have x, AQJxxxx, Qx, 109x where A or Q switch might be good, is locking declarer in dummy with 2 rounds of hearts good ? S could have some 4234 hand, there is no need to assume partner is short in spades, simply playing hearts could give declarer a horrible guess on the second round of diamonds.

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Could partner have x, AQJxxxx, Qx, 109x where A or Q switch might be good, is locking declarer in dummy with 2 rounds of hearts good ? S could have some 4234 hand, there is no need to assume partner is short in spades, simply playing hearts could give declarer a horrible guess on the second round of diamonds.

Hit the NEXT button on the deal, before making your analysis and follow to the first tricks 4 tricks

Certain options can be excluded that way.

 

Rainer Herrmann

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Hit the NEXT button on the deal, before making your analysis and follow to the first tricks 4 tricks

Certain options can be excluded that way.

 

Rainer Herrmann

OK, in that case the best chance would seem to be to lead a heart.

 

My best chance is that declarer's hand is 10xxxxx, xx, Qxx, xx and he views the diamonds incorrectly. If I lock him on the table he has no choice but to drop the J, so I'll give him a potentially useless ruff and discard. If he actually had 10xxxxx, xx, QJx(x), x(x) I get egg on my face at MPs as he now makes 11, so is probably best to cash A before playing the heart. I think declarer should get this right if he is missing J as with Jx(x) left I would most likely just return a trump.

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If declarer has Txxxxx xx Qxx xx, he really should never go wrong, since as has been mentioned, we could just exit a trump when we hold the J.

 

However, if that is his hand, he has already carved the play - he should have drawn trumps before playing a diamond to avoid the problem.

 

So I will just play ace and another (not the queen, since I don't want to give a moderate player the idea that I have AQJ in case he is trying to place the jack by counting the wrong thing) - it is matchpoints, after all, and declarer still has time for another error.

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If declarer has Txxxxx xx Qxx xx, he really should never go wrong, since as has been mentioned, we could just exit a trump when we hold the J.

 

However, if that is his hand, he has already carved the play - he should have drawn trumps before playing a diamond to avoid the problem.

 

So I will just play ace and another (not the queen...

Does the fact that declarer stopped drawing trumps not make it more likely that declarer might have a third ?

If declarer has three diamonds, it must be better to assume declarer had a reason for his play instead of assuming he made a basic error.

 

I can understand a jump to 3 over 1 with -,AQJxxx,xx,JTxxx

 

Rainer Herrmann

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Does the fact that declarer stopped drawing trumps not make it more likely that declarer might have a third ?

If declarer has three diamonds, it must be better to assume declarer had a reason for his play instead of assuming he made a basic error.

 

I can understand a jump to 3 over 1 with -,AQJxxx,xx,JTxxx

 

Rainer Herrmann

 

I'm not sure partner's carding is consistent with that - at best he's been extremely unhelpful. I guess it depends. I think 3 is OK with a 7-4 if partner lacks the club jack, although I would bid four myself.

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My first thought was that partner should have 7 , otherwise declarer would have chosen a better line of play instead of this one, which immediately sinks the contract. (There actually exist better lines of play if he holds 3 )

 

However, it is possible that declarer also believes that partner has 7 and he trusts that we don't have a third to promote a trump trick !

 

(Our lead of 10 and play of 5 next is consistent with this scenario, and he knows we rate to hold A and K)

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