Guesswork

[Vampyr]

League match scored in VPs. You are down around 30 IMPs after 12 of 24 boards. The other team is very strong.[hv=pc=n&n=sajhaj865daq3ca92&d=w&v=n&b=12&a=p2c2hp4hd4sdpp5c5sp]133|200[/hv]

 

2♣ is GF or 20-21(22) balanced. The first double is consistent with the general agreement that double over interference shows the weaker balanced hand.

 

Any ideas what to do and why?

[nige1]

[hv=pc=n&n=sajhaj865daq3ca92&d=w&v=n&b=12&a=p2c2hp4hd4sdpp5c5sp]133|200| Vampyr writes "League match scored in VPs. You are down around 30 IMPs after 12 of 24 boards. The other team is very strong. 2♣ is GF or 20-21(22) balanced. The first double is consistent with the general agreement that double over interference shows the weaker balanced hand. Any ideas what to do and why?

 

Fascinating problem, Vampyr. I suppose LHO could have e.g. ♠ - ♥ - ♦ xxxx ♣ KQJxxxxxx..

Strong opponents don't often psych when coasting to a win in the second half of a short match. (A 2♥ psych is dangerous, for example, if partner tries a 7♥ advance-sacrifice). Hence, the first thing to do is to check the backs of the cards; then consult opponents' system-card; and finally ask opponents to explain their auction. Of particular interest is the meaning of RHO's 4♥ bid which may reveal whether LHO's 2♥ was intended as super-pseudo-psycho-suction or some such. Although in that case, LHO is in receipt of unauthorised information from RHO's failure to alert, so LHO's 4♠ bid will come under the microscope.. Anyway, a 5N bid was avaliable to partner, so, judging on currently available evidence, I reckon Pass = 10. 6♠ = 9, 5N = 6.6N = 5.[/hv]

[rhm]

To me South bidding is inconsistent.

Which hand is good enough to come in at the 5-level with 5♠, but will not bid 2♠ over 2♥ interference?

West has at least four hearts, so South can have at most 4 cards in hearts himself.

 

I picture South with something like ♠Txxxxxxx,♥xx,♦Kxx,♣-

 

I bid 6♠.

 

Whether 6♠ makes or not, opponents are likely to take the push anyway.

 

Rainer Herrmann

[rmnka447]

No matter the outcome, it would probably be good to discuss with your partner exactly how you handle intereference over 2 ♣ strong.

 

Specifically, does a pass show values or weakness, and does a double shows values or weakness? Also, what would say a suit bid like 2 ♠ over 2 ♥ show?

 

With my best partner, we play double shows values, other bids are natural and pass is the weakest action.

 

The auction looks suspiciously like a rat tailed double auction where a player bids the suits not held and only at a high level bids the suit actually held.

 

That being the case, then partner holds space length. But as pointed out earlier, partner couldn't find a direct 2 ♠ over 2 ♥, so probably holds ♠s and not much else. Without any strong bid from partner, bidding slam is a complete gamble. So, I'd stay fixed and sit for 5 ♠ as the most sure positive.

 

Part of sitting is also another consideration. Often, the rat tail bidder will start bidding in a suit that he is void in to be sure someone takes another call. With ♥ length on your right, that is a distinct possibility.

[han]

To me South bidding is inconsistent.

 

Not just to you.

[Zelandakh]

Assuming that partner's initial Pass showed values and second round Double was penalty (neither specified), I would bid 5NT for the simple reason that partner has a much better idea what I have than I do what they have, so better to let them pick the slam when I hold a doubleton in spades. Are screens in use? That is, is it possible that partner has a different explanation for one or more of the calls than we have?

[gszes]

Even though my hand is at the bottom (as advertised by my systemic x) it is loaded with

aces that p has no reason to assume i hold. There is way too much distribution here to feel

safe at the 7 level so

 

6s

 

 

should be sufficient.

[ArtK78]

I pass.

 

I cannot have a worse hand on the auction. My partner failed to bid 2♠ over 2♥ which should deny a long, strong spade suit with reasonable values. So I don't think we have a slam in spades.

 

I suspect that we have a heart fit, but slam is unlikely since West has long hearts. East may have zero (or fewer) hearts judging from his psyches.

 

There is something to what Rainer says about bidding slam to goad East into bidding 7♣. Lets see what happens when I pass 5♠.

 

In my opinion, if slam makes then partner has misbid his hand. Clearly 5♠ is not forcing. I just don't understand where the bid is coming from.

[PhilKing]

Looks like a pass. Partner has long spades but not enough for 2♠. Personally I think there is no such hand - partner should be able to bid 2♠ more freely in competition. That, however, is by the by.

[PhilKing]

Looks like a pass. Partner has long spades but not enough for 2♠. I have a pretty suitable hand, but 11 tricks will often be the limit. Personally I think there is no such bidding - partner should be able to bid 2♠ more freely in competition to avoid ludicrous situations such as this. However, that is by the by.

[ggwhiz]

I'm bidding slam just because I expect the joker on my left to take out insurance at these colours and with this lead in the match in 7♣ (smashed).

 

I'm torn though. 6nt may well avoid an opening heart ruff and I guess that the joker has a zillion clubs and out.

 

Pard didn't bid 5♠ to risk a minus score and I should probably bid 6♣ on the way in case we are getting jobbed out of a grand.

 

With what sure looks like a double psych I'll give pard a heart holding (length) that makes a 2♠ bid risky given my "marked" length in the minors and Guesswork is a fine title for this one.

[SteveMoe]

I'll pass for the logical reasons mentioned above (partner needed to bid 2♠ or 5♠ over 4♠ with real spades, my hand has not revalued with this "auction" and

 

... because East has one more strain they haven't bid yet....

[mikeh]

I place partner with long but weakish spades: Qxxxxxx seems about right, but that obviously depends on one's methods over interference. My preference, when the 2 level remains available, is to require the same holding for a spade bid here as one would need to show a positive had RHO passed. I am aware that this leaves us more vulnerable to preemption, but my feeling is that this is offset by the additional assurance of suit quality when I do bid, plus I am usually going to be able to bid later on most hands.

 

I would expect partner to hold some side values, and a stiff or void club. LHO was funning with us, and I suspect taking advantage of being up a lot and expecting to win anyway, so thought he'd be a joker.

 

Q10xxxxx Kxx Kxx void makes sense to me, but there are a very large number of hands where his playing strength is equivalent but the layout different.

 

I am bidding slam. Had I an extra spade (or two), I'd bid 6♣, but as it is, grand will be against the odds even if he holds 8 spades (even I would show a positive with Kxxxxxx in the suit and a side card).

 

Plus, as others have noted, the joker may well be unwilling to sell. He's had his fun.....let's make him sweat a bit.

[Vampyr]

My preference, when the 2 level remains available, is to require the same holding for a spade bid here as one would need to show a positive had RHO passed.

 

This agreement was implied, though perhaps never actually discussed.