Will you even think about this one?

[Lord Molyb]

[hv=pc=n&s=saqh8763da73ca932&d=s&v=b&b=7&a=1n(12-14)p4h(weak%20natural)4s]133|200[/hv]

Double, 5♥, neither?

IMPs against a decent team (about your skill level)

4 Hearts promises a weak hand with 7 hearts or 6 good ones (2 of top three)

[RunemPard]

What exactly is the definition of weak here?

[Lord Molyb]

What exactly is the definition of weak here?

nothing outside, probably not more than 6-8 points either

[wyman]

I will rip it.

[Fluffy]

rip, probably +500 instead of +650, but tis IMPs

[RunemPard]

5♥...and some regrets about it...

[nige1]

[hv=pc=n&s=saqh8763da73ca932&d=s&v=b&b=7&a=1n(12-14)p4h(weak%20natural)4s]133|200|

'Lord Molyb asks "Double, 5♥, neither? IMPs against a decent team (about your skill level) 4 Hearts promises a weak hand with 7 hearts or 6 good ones (2 of top three)"

 

 

IMO 4N = 10, 5♥ = 9, Double = 7.[/hv]

[Siegmund]

Given the description of partner's hand, seems very likely we have 10, and only 10, tricks in hearts, while we have either 4 or 5 on defense.

 

Any action other than double strikes me as going waaay out on a limb.

[Finch]

Given the description of partner's hand, seems very likely we have 10, and only 10, tricks in hearts, while we have either 4 or 5 on defense.

 

Any action other than double strikes me as going waaay out on a limb.

 

So there's no way that partner can have

 

x

AKxxxxx

xx

Jxx

 

and RHO

 

KJ10xxxx

xx

KQJx

-

 

then?

[gszes]

lets us assume (unless your 4h bid is strictly conventional) your p will

not bid 4h needing you to have 3 aces to make game for your 12 14 nt

(unless they are preempting with a very weak hand - xxxxxxxx xxx xx.

 

Your 3 aces and 4 hearts are huge for partner and any reasonable 4h bid will probably

have little trouble making 5h. The problem is 5H has to right close to 70% of the time

to be right

 

650 vs 500 +4

650 vs 200 +10

-200 vs + 200 -9

-200 vs + 500 -12

 

Opps chances of making 4s are very small and at -25 the occurence is mainly diluted

due to relative obscurity. 5h does eliminate that worrisome -25.

 

Is there any way to have it all??? nige1 suggests

 

4N

 

and the imp scoring tends to agree with him. A spade lead (a huge favorite) will

score up for our side 2 spades 5 hearts and 2 aces needing only 1 more heart or

1 side trick to make 10 tricks. This bid completely eliminates the worrisome

-25 and will probably score ten tricks far more often then hearts will score 11.

 

we will probably go -200 anytime p has made a hugely preemptive call since

they will pull (4sx or 4n) to 5h but those hands are probably less than 10%

and we will never set 4s two tricks anyway so -9 is our worst result there. The

rest of the time (when we dont go down 1) we will score up somewhere between

+ 3 and +10 with 4n having to be right only about 60% of the time to break even impwise.

 

IMO 4n=10 5h=8 x=5 p=0(it only costs 0/1 imp if the opps can make it and picks up 2 to

(6 when they dont and making will be rare)

[mycroft]

Ah, but partner may not be looking to make 10 tricks or be 500 into game. They may be hoping to make 9, undoubled (-100 into -110/120/140). They may be hoping that they pass it out and it luckily rolls. Especially in a strong-NT field, they may be playing a "last guess" game, where they should be +EV even in a prima facie -EV hand because almost everybody else's auction is going to allow the opponents to show their suit at the 1 level, and they have to go 4.

 

I think with AK-seventh and out, "double-wants-sacrifice" will be nice from partner's end; but I don't think I can afford to pass it around to find out.

 

I'll double; I'm going to play partner for a "last guess" hand, and they guessed to go minus (likely). Maybe they guessed right; but 11 tricks in a "shut up, partner" hand is an awfully tight window to hit. I'm expecting 6-to-some-strength and a card; if it's the AK or AQ, we've already lost unless we are 650 or 800; if there's a heart loser, there's a good chance there's maybe 4 losers, and with a more revealing auction, they'll find the better lead. An advantage my weak NT partnership has is that we play 2-level transfers and South African Texas, so I have the added knowledge that partner thinks her hand is more of a surprise than mine. That could easily be heart-to-the-A, singleton to the ace, ruff, other ace, ruff - a magic 1100.

 

I've been known to be a pessimist, though.

[the_clown]

I will double. Looks like we have 4 sure tricks and partner can have a lot of different hands, where we can make from 9 to 12 tricks in ♥s. I see no way to investigate this now so I will just my plus.

[Lord Molyb]

 

 

North:

[hv=pc=n&n=s642hakt9542d62c7]133|100[/hv]

 

East:

[hv=pc=n&e=skjt983hdkqj4ckq]133|100[/hv]

FrancesHinden is good at guessing.

 

[han]

I like 4NT better than 5H.