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Something fishy is going on here...


Lord Molyb

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Lets speculate a bit. East probably has 7-4 minors for his opening, West has 7 hearts most likelly this puts partner with something close to a 4261, we have fit, but partner is very weak, with 1 heart sure loser and many clubs o deal with, we can't expect any help from partner's diamonds. Losing 2 spades, 1 heart and 1 club from the start would be pretty normal.

 

 

I would like to make a penalty double, but I doubt double is penalty, partner might bid 4 with 4, but also possible is 5 if he has 3 7 that would be awful. I think I would bid 4 just to avoid partner getting in trouble.

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pass

 

p is exceedingly short in clubs but could find no call over 3c

 

this severly limits p power though there is no reason to assume it

drastically reduces their chances of having very long diamonds.

 

next we see 4h and that means p has a good chance of being very short

in hearts also further reinforcing the probability they have very long diamonds

and also a very weak hand. P probably has some minimal spade support

but if we picture a decent hand like

 

Qxxx xx Kxxxxx x

 

do we have good play for 4s??? we lose the first 2 tricks to ruffs and we still have

the trump A along with a heart and 2 other club losers to take care of. thats down

2 on a hand where the opps are going to lose 2s 2h and 1d and thats assuming we

arent x. I think it is too dangerous to bid on here since we could just as easily be turning

a + 50/100 for a -500/800 and p needs a much better hand for us to score + 620.

 

IMO pass at this vulnerability.

at favorable I would bid 4s not so much because I expected to make it but because there is

significantly less risk involved and it is extra insurance against the opps making 4h.

 

As an aside even if x were penalty I would not use it on this hand we have only 2 "sure" tricks and

it seems that we may be all too easily endplayed into playing spades from our hand.

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