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Deal #24


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What I'm trying to do is to leave out personal judgment here and only assign different outcomes due to system differences. I would think Pass2000 and Moscito would have the highest chance for deviation on this hand.

 

 

The big deviation on the MOSCITO auction would appear to be the fact that the 2 overcall is no longer a jump.

I think that this leads to a different set of inferences.

 

I posted two possible MOSCITO auctions upthread based on whether or not the partner of the 2 bidder decides to bid 4.

 

As I mentioned earlier, I don't see a convincing auction to 5.

Contracting for 11 tricks after a semi positive is hairy.

There are too many different layouts where 5 could go very wrong.

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  • 3 weeks later...

.............T9874

.............void

.............AJ652

.............T84

KQ52.......................AJ3

J985........................AT7432

T..............................984

K632........................9

.............6

.............KQ6

.............KQ73

.............AQJ75

 

Molybdenum Forcing Pass System:

S ---- N

P --- 1 (2) (opening, 0-bad 12)

dbl (4) dbl (general takeout, 2 places to play)

P (opposite some values, the contract should go down sufficiently)

 

By the way, I changed first X from showing the other major(s) to takeout (much easier)

 

If east overcalled 1 and west cuebid it goes

S ---- N

P --- 1 (1) (see above)

2 (3) P (3) (clubs with 16+, not enough unless south bids more)

3NT --- 5 (both minors with longer clubs, signoff)

 

That auction is a bit optimistic though.

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Unnamed Homebrew Diamond:

1-(P)-1-(2) 16+, excluding GF / 0-7 (almost) any

 

Difficult call for S here. 2NT is natural, so the spade singleton is unfortunate; double is takeout; pass is non-forcing. I think a likely continuation is:

 

3-(4)-P-(P) 5+ cards, "smallest lie" / nothing to say

X-(P)-4-P Penalties / no defense

4N-(P)-5-AP Two places to play / This looks like the best fit

 

Of course, this may well be -1 as it's difficult to avoid a club ruff. Other possible contracts include 4X, and 5 - the latter of which has trump control issues on a forcing defence, which is probably indicated on the auction.

 

I'll have to talk about this one with Matt.

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  • 1 year later...

1D-3C (unb 4D, mixed raise 4 trumps+ruff power may have 4M)

3Nt

 

or more likely

 

1D-(P)-1S-(2H) (1S show 5S but nf)

X--(3H)-4D-?? (X is semi penalties, 4D is probably void in H or super fit no interest in 3Hx)

 

4Hx or 5D.

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System seems not to be as important as (opp's) judgement on this hand :(

Not quite sure but I think it would be something like

1(11-20 3+ unbal)-1(nat F1)

1NT( or 16+)-2(nat minimum)-(2)

X(16+, no fit)-5

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