To preempt, or not preempt

[Mbodell]

There were a decent number of hands that partially revolved around if people choose to preempt or not, and if so at what level. I realize that not everyone has the same system or style agreements, so some differences might be due to that, but here are a set of hands where a preempt or not may have effected the outcome of the match, and I'll poll people for if they preempt or not on these 7 hands. Remember it is IMPs.

 

Hand 1, all red, dealer (match board 4)

[hv=pc=n&s=s3haqj9873d8ckq64&d=s&v=b&a=?]133|200[/hv]

 

Hand 2, all red, dealer (match board 7)

[hv=pc=n&s=skt9852h42dkc9742&d=s&v=b&a=?]133|200[/hv]

 

Hand 3, all white, 2nd seat (match board 17)

[hv=pc=n&s=s87643h7da32cat87&d=e&v=0&b=14&a=p?]133|200[/hv]

[mr1303]

These struck me as automatic to answer.

 

1) 1H

2) 2S

3) Pass

 

1 & 3 doing anything other than my answers above strikes me as mildly insane. 2 I think is a minimum for a vulnerable pre-empt, but it would still take a lot to stop me pre-empting on those cards.

[Mbodell]

These struck me as automatic to answer.

 

1) 1H

2) 2S

3) Pass

 

1 & 3 doing anything other than my answers above strikes me as mildly insane. 2 I think is a minimum for a vulnerable pre-empt, but it would still take a lot to stop me pre-empting on those cards.

 

On only one of the 3 boards in this thread did both tables choose the same bid as each other. And out of the 7 hands I produced in this series, it only happened on just 2 of them (including one from this thread) that both tables agreed with the same action.

[Fluffy]

Hand 1 I'd open 1♠ if I had spades, with hearts I just blast 4♥ and let opponents guess

[mgoetze]

JEC would pass #2 even nonvulnerable. I personally would bid 2♠ but I have some understanding for more disciplined styles. If someone preempted with hand #3 they have been reading entirely too many old Marty Bergen books.

[daveharty]

Hand 1 I'd open 1♠ if I had spades, with hearts I just blast 4♥ and let opponents partner guess

Modified your post.

[the_clown]

These struck me as automatic to answer.

 

1) 1H

2) 2S

3) Pass

 

1 & 3 doing anything other than my answers above strikes me as mildly insane. 2 I think is a minimum for a vulnerable pre-empt, but it would still take a lot to stop me pre-empting on those cards.

 

Agree 100%

[awm]

I bid namyats or similar on the first if I have it. If not I will open 4H. I do not expect this to be a popular choice but a combination of bridgebrowser results and my own experience has convinced me this is best.

 

On the second I will pass. Close though.

 

Only the third (pass) seems obvious to me

[Mbodell]

I bid namyats or similar on the first if I have it. If not I will open 4H. I do not expect this to be a popular choice but a combination of bridgebrowser results and my own experience has convinced me this is best.

 

Can you clarify a bit more about which hands you think merit this action/treatment (I.e., is it just ♥ or also ♠, just 7411 and 7420 or other shapes, just stiff spade, etc.).

[awm]

Can you clarify a bit more about which hands you think merit this action/treatment (I.e., is it just ♥ or also ♠, just 7411 and 7420 or other shapes, just stiff spade, etc.).

 

Well the bridgebrowser sim that I did only specified 7+M and 12-15 hcp in 1st or 2nd seat, and it indicated that when people open 4M on these hands they are substantially positive in both IMP and MP scoring. This also holds if you restrict to four "good players" at the table. I looked at a bunch of examples and in general the losses are (as you might expect) missed slams. The wins are when opponents misjudge whether to compete and/or double over the 4M opening, which happens surprisingly often even in a good field. It does seem slightly more positive with hearts than with spades (for the obvious reason) but both 4M openers are winners.

 

Of course, this doesn't say anything about specific rules as to which hands are suitable for this treatment. My own general approach is to open most hands where I have the "playing strength" and a good 7-card major and less than around 15 hcp in this way. Of course exceptions can be made for really freak hands, but I feel like if I need three or more useful cards for slam then the chances of missing one by opening 4M are not really that high. For example here, I would need partner to hold three of the missing keycards and even then slam may not be cold (i.e. AQx Kx Axxx xxxx is an okay slam but not a great one).

[mgoetze]

The wins are when opponents misjudge whether to compete and/or double over the 4M opening, which happens surprisingly often even in a good field.

The next question is whether it happens only when one player is masterminding in a pickup partnership or also when it is a fully disclosed systematic bid.

[Mbodell]

Results:

 

Hand 1 (at time of writing we have 12 votes for 1♥, 3 for 4♥)

 

Open room: 4♠W= +620

[hv=pc=n&s=s3haqj9873d8ckq64&w=skt87hk2djt52c953&n=sj654htd9764cjt87&e=saq92h654dakq3ca2&d=s&v=b&b=7&a=1hppd4h4sppp]399|300[/hv]

Closed room: 4♠W= +620

[hv=pc=n&s=s3haqj9873d8ckq64&w=skt87hk2djt52c953&n=sj654htd9764cjt87&e=saq92h654dakq3ca2&d=s&v=b&b=7&a=1hppdp1sp2hd2np4sppp]399|300[/hv]

 

Imps 0. This was one of only 2 of the 7 polled preempt hands that acted the same at both matches.

 

Hand 2 (at the time of writing we have 10 votes for 2♠ and 5 votes for pass)

Open room: 4♥E= +620

[hv=pc=n&s=skt9852h42dkc9742&w=sj43hk53dt987cak6&n=sq76hqj7daq5432c3&e=sahat986dj6cqjt85&d=s&v=b&b=7&a=pp1d1h2s3h3s4cp4hppp]399|300[/hv]

Closed room: 3♠S= +140

[hv=pc=n&s=skt9852h42dkc9742&w=sj43hk53dt987cak6&n=sq76hqj7daq5432c3&e=sahat986dj6cqjt85&d=s&v=b&b=7&a=2sp3sppp]399|300[/hv]

 

Imps +13 to BBOForums. As predicted JEC didn't open 2♠ and jfaria's opening of 2♠ and the_clown's raising to 3♠ kept the opps out of their heart fit.

 

Hand 3 (at the time of writing we have complete support for pass with 15 votes)

Open room: 4♥W= +420

[hv=pc=n&s=s87643h7da32cat87&w=sk9haq9654dkckq62&n=sq52hktdqj74c9543&e=sajthj832dt9865cj&d=e&v=0&b=14&a=pp1hp3d(mixed%20raise)p4hppp]399|300[/hv]

Closed room: 4♥W+1 +450

[hv=pc=n&s=s87643h7da32cat87&w=sk9haq9654dkckq62&n=sq52hktdqj74c9543&e=sajthj832dt9865cj&d=e&v=0&b=14&a=p2s3hp4hppp]399|300[/hv]

 

Imps +1 to BBOForums. apron decided to preempt with this in second seat, and both tables ended up at the same place. But with the preempt Moki led a spade (compared to ♦Q in open room) and that picked up the spade Q for the overtrick.

[Zelandakh]

If their agreement is that this is a "Standard" second seat weak two bid then to my mind it comes close to MI. Is there an alert missing?

[Mbodell]

If their agreement is that this is a "Standard" second seat weak two bid then to my mind it comes close to MI. Is there an alert missing?

 

It is possible there was, since they did alert their weak 2s. I wasn't at the table and didn't see an alert explanation and found other normal 6 card no side 4 card suit weak 2's that they also alerted in the match.

[scarletv]

Hand 1:

With my regular partner I will open 2♣ = semiforcing and as a modification of Benjamin will rebid 4♥. That shows 9 tricks with long hearts (7+) and 12 - 15/16 HCP. We use that for majors only.

 

Hand 2:

Maybe in third seat - never in first or second. Vulnerability at least not red vs white.

 

Hand 3:

no thought of preempt

[han]

I echo awm's comments on board 1. I would also open namyats (actually: 3NT showing a good 4M opening) but if not playing it I prefer opening 4H over opening 1H. Awm's argument in favor of opening 4H is "in my experience and from what I've investigated this is a winning style". The arguments against it so far are "4H is insane", "people who open 4H are bad", and "I don't want to think about it because it is bad bridge". I find awm's type of argument more convincing.

 

On the second hand it seems to me that it was east that missed game by not bidding it. Is there anybody else that thinks you cannot pass the east hand after 2S - p - 3S?

 

I like the preempt on board 2 though. I can't say the same about hand 3, the only hand about which the forum answered unanimously.

[cherdano]

I would bid 4♥ on the first - if I am forced to guess which action has a better expected IMP-outcome, this is my guess. But I understand 1♥.

Similarly on the second - the stiff king is ugly, but we are 6-4, I open 2♠ without thinking, but understand anyone who passes.

 

Opening 2♠ on the last seems terrible to me. But I am also convinced that in terms of expected IMP loss, it's not nearly as bad as passing the East hand over 2S-P-3S in board 2.

[Zelandakh]

Hand 1:

With my regular partner I will open 2♣ = semiforcing and as a modification of Benjamin will rebid 4♥. That shows 9 tricks with long hearts (7+) and 12 - 15/16 HCP. We use that for majors only.

Sounds great except that you only have 7.5 PTs here. More importantly, I hope you do not describe your 2♣ opening as "Benji" or "semi-forcing" or whatever when asked. Including "strong preempts" into such openings is a common trick and incorrect disclosure of this can lead to MI rulings against you.

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

 

the only hand suitable for a preempt is #2.

#2 is a matter of style, I would pass, but dont consider 2S / 3S

bad bids. Those bids are just not my cup coffee.

 

Seening the complete deal

 

#1 4H wont stop them from reaching 4S, a Namysats Opening my do the

trick, but not a 4H opening preempt.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

[JLOGIC]

I hate opening 4H on the first hand, there is not really much of an argument to be had other than I think my hand is too good. I need nothing for slam, and I have no idea what to do if they bid (I guess people are doubling to show something like this?).

 

I also hate opening 2S on the 2nd hand.

 

Obviously both of these actions could work well though.

[JLOGIC]

 

On the second hand it seems to me that it was east that missed game by not bidding it. Is there anybody else that thinks you cannot pass the east hand after 2S - p - 3S?

 

Sure, but preempting definitely will induce more errors. And a normal auction after 2S is 2S p 4S AP probably, not sure what 3S is about.