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Deal #16


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.......................94

.......................7

.......................742

.......................AQJ8763

KJ75.....................................T8

JT86.....................................Q542

J53.......................................QT986

T2.........................................95

.......................AQ632

.......................AK93

.......................AK

.......................K4

 

Molybdenum Forcing Pass System:

S ---- N

P --- 1 (opening, 0-bad 12)

1NT --- 2NT (22+, transfer to a minor)

3 --- 3 (complete transfer, shortness GF)

4 --- 4 (minor suited blackwood, 1KC)

4 --- 4NT (queen ask, yes + 7th club)

6 --- P (grand slam is only on if north has 3+ diamonds and 50-% otherwise)

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Unnamed Homebrew Diamond:

1-1N 16+, excluding GF / weak or slam try with

2-2N At least tolerance, and a suit / No fit, but slam try in

3-4 Suit agreement, GF / 4 or 6 CPs (here it's A=2, CQ=1, Hx=1)

4-5 Second-round control (and 7+ CPs) / Also second-round control, and 4 CPs

7

 

S can bid 7 here because N has shown a 6+ card suit to an honour, 0-2 spades, and a singleton heart; he's also promised 4 CPs. Those 4 could be Kx/x/x/QJxxxxxxx, but N should ask for keycards with that hand instead of using Swiss. S can therefore deduce that N has the CA; he's therefore got diamonds that can be ruffed. The worst-case hand is something like xx/x/xxxx/AQJxxx, and that's not good enough for a single-suited slam try.

 

The key to bidding this one is our weak-or-slam-try transfer responses. They've appeared about 3 times at the table, and on each one we've had a very good board out of them!

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You are South and dealer. V vs V. imps. Uncontested auction.

 

.......................94

.......................7

.......................742

.......................AQJ8763

KJ75.....................................T8

JT86.....................................Q542

J53.......................................QT986

T2.........................................95

.......................AQ632

.......................AK93

.......................AK

.......................K4

 

Pass 2000

 

Funny this board should show up. We are just now discussing how we should handle preempts when partner is passed.

 

P - 3C; (0-7 / 17+ -- 7 clubs, 2 of 3 top honours, no side king or ace)

6NT

 

Even if we could relay partners hand it would probably do no good, since north would show x-1-x-7+, and south needs to know the full distribution to bid the grand (without taking a chance with the spade finesse).

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Upgraded Ultra Club Relay (C3)

I can understand the 2137/3127 relayers guessing this because they are >50% on the shape and have the spade finesse in reserve but can you explain the maths behind your decision. It feels like something of a position to take on what may very well be a finesse for the 13th (but I have not calculated any probabilities).

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I can understand the 2137/3127 relayers guessing this because they are >50% on the shape and have the spade finesse in reserve but can you explain the maths behind your decision. It feels like something of a position to take on what may very well be a finesse for the 13th (but I have not calculated any probabilities).

OK, I can count 12 tricks: 7 + 5 more (AK + AK + AQ). Partner has 6 cards outside of and I have 5 of them covered. The 13th trick could be a) a ruff if partner has 3, or he has Q and/or the Q, or the Q finesse as a last resort. Only three distributions are likely (partner should not have a side 4-cd suit for his bid): 7222 or 7321 or 7330. 7321 is most likely, thus my gut-feel is that 7 is about 75%, which is my threshold for a grand slam in IMPs.

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