1NT Play Problem

[kriegel]

Club game, IMPs

 

[hv=pc=n&s=sk42hakdj53caq753&n=sq73hq942d9842cj9&d=w&v=b&b=4&a=ppp1nppp]266|200[/hv]

 

The spade-jack lead rides around to your king, East playing the five (standard carding). Plan the play.

[JLOGIC]

Club to the jack?

[mikeh]

I prefer to unblock the hearts before the club play. If the club J holds, I leave the heart alone for now: I am going to pin my hopes on the spade A on my left. But I don't want the opps clearing spades before I unblock the hearts. 2 spades, 3 hearts and 2 clubs are all I need.

[gnasher]

I prefer to unblock the hearts before the club play. If the club J holds, I leave the heart alone for now: I am going to pin my hopes on the spade A on my left. But I don't want the opps clearing spades before I unblock the hearts. 2 spades, 3 hearts and 2 clubs are all I need.

LHO rises with ♣K and plays another club.

[mikeh]

LHO rises with ♣K and plays another club.

 

I'm not sure of your point.

 

I win and cash another club. If clubs are 3-3, I am home, as is Justin, assuming that he plays 3 rounds of clubs after the jack holds.

 

So assume clubs are 4-2.

 

I lead a spade: I am down only if they can score 2 clubs, a spade and 4 diamonds.

 

But on that layout, Justin is down as well, is he not? They actually have extra ways to beat him rather than the counter-intuitive line that you suggested (I am not saying it isn't a feasible defence, but it certainly wouldn't occur to many to do it unless presented as a problem).

 

What have I missed?

 

I do see, btw, that there are interesting issues in the club suit, if the J holds, and I would prefer not to have unblocked on some of those layouts, but I'd come back the club A and lead a spade...more power to RHO if he ducked the club smoothly from Kxx.

 

At mps, I'd lead the club early, since misdefence is possible when I conceal my hearts, but good defenders will know, at imps, that they can't beat me in the heart suit, so they had best assume diamonds are their friends.

[gnasher]

 

I'm not sure of your point.

 

I win and cash another club. If clubs are 3-3, I am home, as is Justin, assuming that he plays 3 rounds of clubs after the jack holds.

 

So assume clubs are 4-2.

 

I lead a spade: I am down only if they can score 2 clubs, a spade and 4 diamonds.

 

But on that layout, Justin is down as well, is he not? They actually have extra ways to beat him rather than the counter-intuitive line that you suggested

No. he's not. If they play ♣K, he has at least four clubs, two hearts and a spades. If they let him win the club, he can unblock the hearts and lead a spade up.

 

(I am not saying it isn't a feasible defence, but it certainly wouldn't occur to many to do it unless presented as a problem).

If they stop to think, they can write down your entire hand - cashing the top hearts is horribly revealing. If a second round of clubs is too hard to find LHO can probably achieve the same result by playing ♣K and then two rounds of spades.

[PhilKing]

If a second round of clubs is too hard to find LHO can probably achieve the same result by playing ♣K and then two rounds of spades.

 

Don't we have seven tricks? The result of West playing another club will often be the same, I suppose.

[kriegel]

Say you lead a club to the jack. East wins and returns a diamond to West's queen. He cashes the diamond king and plays the ten of spades. What now?

[mikeh]

No. he's not. If they play ♣K, he has at least four clubs, two hearts and a spades. If they let him win the club, he can unblock the hearts and lead a spade up.

 

 

If they stop to think, they can write down your entire hand - cashing the top hearts is horribly revealing. If a second round of clubs is too hard to find LHO can probably achieve the same result by playing ♣K and then two rounds of spades.

Really? club K and two rounds of spades doesn't exactly get me screaming that I went down, since even I am then able to cash 3 hearts, 2 spades and at least 2 clubs.Edit: deleted gratuitous snark, for which I apologize :D

 

And have you never led a club to the J9 with Q10xxx or even Q87xx?

As for Justin's line, obviously if they fly the K from LHO he makes, but where I come from the odds seem to suggest that RHO might hold the club K. Assuming that is as likely as that LHO both has it and pops with it (and it isn't auto to pop with it from Kxx, since partner may hold A10x and declarer is finessing), and it seems more likely to me, then when he returns a spade or a diamond, Justin is likely down since he can't ever enjoy the third heart so long as they defend like normal people. He needs clubs 3-3.

[JLOGIC]

:( at my line. As i said in a different thread I was drunk last night sorry :( I was very wrong, nice line mikeh

[PhilKing]

Say you lead a club to the jack. East wins and returns a diamond to West's queen. He cashes the diamond king and plays the ten of spades. What now?

 

You put the queen up. Basically, you can't make this contract unless the spades are well placed, so unless you are going to play for Ax offside that means you simply play West to have led from the ace.

 

Mike's line maximises the chances of seven tricks on that assumption. It's not gilt-edged, since they might win the first club, clear hearts and be able to cash sufficient red winners, but it's the best we can do as far as I can tell.

[gnasher]

Really? club K and two rounds of spades doesn't exactly get me screaming that I went down, since even I am then able to cash 3 hearts, 2 spades and at least 2 clubs.Edit: deleted gratuitous snark, for which I apologize :D

Sorry, can't count (and I was asleep when you posted and deleted whatever else you said). I'll revert to my original defence of ♣K and a club.

 

And have you never led a club to the J9 with Q10xxx or even Q87xx?

If I held Kxx AK Axx Q?xxx I wouldn't start by cashing two of my three side entries. Would you?

 

As for Justin's line, obviously if they fly the K from LHO he makes, but where I come from the odds seem to suggest that RHO might hold the club K. Assuming that is as likely as that LHO both has it and pops with it (and it isn't auto to pop with it from Kxx, since partner may hold A10x and declarer is finessing), and it seems more likely to me, then when he returns a spade or a diamond, Justin is likely down since he can't ever enjoy the third heart so long as they defend like normal people. He needs clubs 3-3.

My original reply was to a sentence which began "If the club J holds ...", and seemed to imply that with ♣K on the left it would all be straightforward.

 

If we're now discussing a scenario where RHO has ♣J and clubs are 4-2, he too can win and play a club back.

Edited January 25, 2013 by gnasher

[gnasher]

Maybe it would be better to consider when each line succeeds or fails.

 

With clubs 3-3 and the spade onside, everybody makes. With the spade offside, everybody will, sooner or later, play ♠Q losing to the ace and go down. Hence the only relevant layouts are where ♠A is onside but clubs break 4-2. On those layouts:

 

- If you play a club to the jack at trick two, you make when ♣K is on the left.

- If you cash ♥AK and then play a club, you make when ♣K is in either hand, but only if they misdefend.

 

So, Mike's line is playing for them to misdefend on more than half of the relevant layouts, after we have shown them where all of our high cards are [edit: and given them a chance to signal on the hearts]. That seems a lot to hope for.

Edited January 25, 2013 by gnasher

[mikeh]

Maybe it would be better to consider when each line succeeds or fails.

 

With clubs 3-3 and the spade onside, everybody makes. With the spade offside, everybody will, sooner or later, play ♠Q losing to the ace and go down. Hence the only relevant layouts are where ♠A is onside but clubs break 4-2. On those layouts:

 

- If you play a club to the jack at trick two, you make when ♣K is on the left.

- If you cash ♥AK and then play a club, you make when ♣K is in either hand, but only if they misdefend.

 

So, Mike's line is playing for them to misdefend on more than half of the relevant layouts, after we have shown them where all of our high cards are [edit: and given them a chance to signal on the hearts]. That seems a lot to hope for.

Being obstinate can be beneficial in some circumstances: being obstinate and wrong rarely is.

 

If LHO pops the club K and returns a club, then I am still cold unless clubs are 4-2 and they can take 4 diamond tricks, starting diamonds from my left (assuming the spade A is onside). Otherwise they can't take more than 1 spade, 2 clubs and 3 diamonds.

 

I don't know about you, but my view is that diamonds have been known to break 3-3 and I once heard that the diamond 10 was doubleton when the suit broke 4-2, not to mention HH in either hand.

 

If RHO has the club K, then Justin's line is down anytime clubs are 4-2, since they clear spades and his hearts are blocked.

 

Isn't it true that the odds are that RHO holds the club K when LHO holds (I think we can assume) at least 4 spades to the AJ10? The odds aren't far from 50-50, but they are definitely not exactly equal.

 

Which line do you really think is inferior?

 

You know, we all respect your abilities as a player. But for some reason you spend a lot of time on this forum criticizing others rather than suggesting your own line of play. Why is that? And why are you still so fixated on this one, given that Justin has recognized that the line I suggested is better than his? What's going on?

[PhilKing]

In before "hearts are 5-2". :ph34r:

[gnasher]

If LHO pops the club K and returns a club, then I am still cold unless clubs are 4-2 and they can take 4 diamond tricks, starting diamonds from my left (assuming the spade A is onside). Otherwise they can't take more than 1 spade, 2 clubs and 3 diamonds.

 

I don't know about you, but my view is that diamonds have been known to break 3-3 and I once heard that the diamond 10 was doubleton when the suit broke 4-2, not to mention HH in either hand.

Yes, that's true (or mostly true - when they have H10xx=HH, they can, and probably should, unblock the two diamonds before playing another club).

 

They have four diamond tricks when they're HH10x-Hx, H10xx-HH, Hx-HH10x, xx-HHH10, which I think is 16/30 of the 4-2 diamond breaks, so only about 25-30% of all the relevant deals, so I agree that your line is better.

 

As for the rest of your post, I don't intend to respond to it, except for this bit:

we all respect your abilities as a player.

Perhaps you do, but I'm not sure why. Many of the participants in these forums, including you, are far more successful at bridge than I am. You, and anyone else, can read my posts or not as you please, but I wouldn't want anyone to read them because of an unfounded belief in my ability as a bridge player.

[Fluffy]

Perhaps you do, but I'm not sure why. Many of the participants in these forums, including you, are far more successful at bridge than I am. You, and anyone else, can read my posts or not as you please, but I wouldn't want anyone to read them because of an unfounded belief in my ability as a bridge player.

I can rent you a room in Madrid for a small fee, you will improve your results :P

[Zelandakh]

I can rent you a room in Madrid for a small fee, you will improve your results :P

More than this, he would qualify for the Spanish national team - think he would make it Fluffy? Gnasher for the next BB perhaps?!

 

In any case, everyone here has the greatest respect for your ability Andy. The same can be said for Rainer's play analysis too, and he is also not a national player afaik.

[kriegel]

The full deal was:

 

[hv=pc=n&s=sk42hakdj53caq753&w=sjt986hj853dkqct4&n=sq73hq942d9842cj9&e=sa5ht76dat76ck862&d=w&v=b&b=4&a=ppp1nppp&p=sjs3s5]399|300[/hv]

 

There were two reasons I posted this hand. First, whether or not it was correct to unblock the hearts before playing a club to the jack (I did at the table), and second, whether there is any inference that East holds the spade ace when he fails to return the suit when he's in with the club jack. In real life, East cashed the spade ace, but I think I would have played him for the ace if he did not continue spades. Is there any merit to my thinking, or am I totally off base?

 

Also, I realize East probably should have opened, but I can't control that.

 

Thanks for the comments.

[JLOGIC]

The full deal was:

 

[hv=pc=n&s=sk42hakdj53caq753&w=sjt986hj853dkqct4&n=sq73hq942d9842cj9&e=sa5ht76dat76ck862&d=w&v=b&b=4&a=ppp1nppp&p=sjs3s5]399|300[/hv]

 

There were two reasons I posted this hand. First, whether or not it was correct to unblock the hearts before playing a club to the jack (I did at the table), and second, whether there is any inference that East holds the spade ace when he fails to return the suit when he's in with the club jack. In real life, East cashed the spade ace, but I think I would have played him for the ace if he did not continue spades. Is there any merit to my thinking, or am I totally off base?

 

Also, I realize East probably should have opened, but I can't control that.

 

Thanks for the comments.

 

Your thinking is pretty sound/good based on my experiences in real life. People don't not continue spades when they don't have the ace in order to trick you. They might, however, think another shift is a better way to set up tricks.