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Indecision time


paulg

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Our opponents in the final of the SBU Winter Foursomes are our regular team mates on the annual trip to an NABC so it was a competitive match. One of them took over five minutes to make a call on this hand, but how difficult was it?

 

IMPS, NS Game

 

[hv=pc=n&s=sk62hak52dat9cj52&d=w&v=n&b=12&a=3d4c(Clubs%20and%20major%2C%20strong%20hand)5d6dd(Do%20not%20lead%20diamonds)6sp?]200|300[/hv]

 

Four clubs is non-leaping Michaels, showing clubs and a major in a strong hand. Four clubs is non-forcing but rarely passed. Your call.

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partner's premature bid of 6 indicates that he is not willing to try 7, he will normally not have diamond void unless he had really stretched for the 4 bid. Finding partner with a sub-minum hand with diamond void would be really bad even for the 6 level. But the more likelly minimum hand without void must make slam at worse on a finese against the non opener. Still i would just pass.
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So he thought, he needs to show his major- because you asked him.

And most here thought that 6 denies a good hand.

 

I have no idea who is right, but the majority seems to have a clear view..

 

 

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I play 5NT to show a grand slam try, and that's what I would have done, since AQJxx xx x AKQxx and Ax QJxxx x AKQxx are in range (we play 4 as four or five losers so we need 4 cover cards to try).

 

7 will make with the major 4-1 a fair amount of the time on the cases where partner lacks the major suit jack and opener is, say, 1372. I get to an indifferent grand when pard has AQJxx x x AKxxxx.

 

6 just asks partner for his major and denies interest in seven. Obviously tanking for five minutes is ludicrous. Firstly, we should have done our thinking on the previous round of bidding. Secondly, it shouldn't take long to construct hands where seven has no play, particularly when the opposition made it easy for partner to show no grand slam potential by doubling 6 for a laugh.

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It's a clear pass.

 

Ques.: From your hand, how certain can you be that 13 tricks are there if you bid on?

 

Ans.: You really can't very certain at all.

 

So it's right to take the pretty sure small slam positive rather than guess on the grand. If you bid the grand and it makes, you're gaining 12 IMPs. If you bid the grand and it goes down, you're losing 17 IMPs. The break even point is at about a 60% chance that the grand will make.

 

With this hand, there's just no way to know if the chance of making the grand is that good.

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