luis Posted June 11, 2003 Report Share Posted June 11, 2003 The idea of this thread is to post no so well know suit plays as we see them appearing in BBO hands or Vugraph broadcasts. From Vugraph: a) J642 and A973 How do you play the suit for 3 tricks? Answer: Lead the 7, if the T appears then cover with the J and play the Ace next.If the ten does not appear then play low if the K or Q appears then cash the Ace.If the K or Q appears when you play the 7 then run the J trying to pin the T.You win 3 tricks if either opp has KQ doubleton or if south has QT or KTYour percentage of success is 10.17%And this is not the correct play if you need only 2 tricks. Pls feel free to post other no well know suit plays if you see them! Luis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inquiry Posted June 11, 2003 Report Share Posted June 11, 2003 The idea of this thread is to post no so well know suit plays as we see them appearing in BBO hands or Vugraph broadcasts. From Vugraph: a) J642 and A973 How do you play the suit for 3 tricks? Answer: Lead the 7, if the T appears then cover with the J and play the Ace next.If the ten does not appear then play low if the K or Q appears then cash the Ace.If the K or Q appears when you play the 7 then run the J trying to pin the T.You win 3 tricks if either opp has KQ doubleton or if south has QT or KTYour percentage of success is 10.17%And this is not the correct play if you need only 2 tricks. Pls feel free to post other no well know suit plays if you see them! Luis. Good idea Luis. I will point out that while your line is correct, you made a mis-statement in when you said the following: You win 3 tricks if either opp has KQ doubleton or if south has QT or KT This is of course untrue, as your proposed line is to lead low towards the J and if the hand in front of dummy jumped up with high honor, to lead the Jack from dummy to "pin the ten". Thus, when hand in front of Jxxx has KQ doubleton you will lose two tricks (you do gain when has KT or QT doubleton). The odds are catching "south" with Txx = 3.391....% KT or QT = 6.78....%To arrive at your 10.17 % Bang Ace and duck is only 6.8%. The reason why you try to "pin" the Ten in a high-Ten doubleton is that HT (where H = K or Q) is twice as likely as KQ doubleton. That is, simply stated, if South has a doubleton honor, he could have: KT, QT, or KQ. Two chances is better than one. So banging the A and then low, works when East has KQ doubleton or West has KQ doubleton. Each 3.391% = 6.8%... The low towards the Jack work when EAST has KQ doubleton (as you bang the second time), at 3.391) or when West has KT (3.391%) or QT (another 3.391%). 3.391 * 3 = 10.17. B) As for the best line to make two tricks. This occurs anytime the suit is 3-2 (67.8%), so the trick is to pull in as many of the 4-1, 5-0's as you can. The solution is to bang the ACE. This works anytime WEST has 4 or 5 in the suit, or when West has stiff K, Q, or T. All in all, playing the ACE will win at least 2 tricks 92.3% of the time. Ben. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rtewari Posted June 12, 2003 Report Share Posted June 12, 2003 I think, a slightly better line is to play low towards the Jack 1. If LHO wins Q/K, then play low towards to the jack again, if LHO now shows out, you can finesse RHO ten next time. 2. If RHO wins Q/K, then next play low towards the A9 combination hand and insert the nine if RHO follows. This line will fail only when RHO has Q/K singleton which is 28% (4-1 break) * 50% (4-1 with RHO singleton) * 40% (Q/K singleton) = 5.6% So, low to the Jack will give 2 tricks 94.4% of the times. Of course, this is assuming abundance of entries in both hands. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inquiry Posted June 12, 2003 Report Share Posted June 12, 2003 Yup... low towards the Jack is a better line than the one I suggested.... I just assumed my line was best and didn't even calculate other ones. :- Since this is a discussion of suit combinations and how to play them, this is a good time to mention to bring up the concept that distributions in other suits could affect the odds of how to play a combination like this. If RHO had preempted in a different suit, say opening 4D's, you would just realize that he has lots more diamonds than his partner, so is less likely to have this suit (say spades). Say you estimate their diamonds to be split 2-7.... Now, banging the ACE is way better. The actual odds are Play the ace wins... 98.9%, while low to the jack only works 87.2%. Without doing the difficult math (well spreadsheets help) on that one, everyone would just "guess" that West is much more likely to have long spades than East. What about if you had pulled trumps, and EAST had 2 more trumps than West, would that affect the odds? If you knew nothing else about the other suits, yes it would. Now leading ace then low wins 94.9% of the time and leading low towards the Jack "only" 92.6%. If you pulled trumps, and East had one more than west, the odds of the two lines are essentially identical (ACE-first 93.54, low towards JACK-93.66). At the table it is totally impratical to try to figure out these odds (unless you are some kind of mental math freak)... but you can make use of this "principle" though simple bridge logic... if RHO is longer in suit "A" he is much more likely to be shorter in suit "B". With this logic firmly in mind, with a two way finesse, available, you usually finessee though the person who has less know cards in the other suits. This affects the "eight ever, nine never" rule for playing for a drop of a queen... In the following table. The columns are a) number of extra known cards in other suits in RHO's hand, B) frequency of catching Qxx in LHO hand when missing Qxxx, c) the odds "drop" versus d) hook (of LHO) working after first cashing one top honor in your suit. 0 – 18.7 - 57.9 - 56.21 – 20.3 58.78 57.782 – 22.2 61.57 59.553 – 24.2 64.6 60.19 If RHO is known to have just one more card in a side suit than LHO, then the odds swing in favor of "hook" (cash one top winner first). Here is a matchpoint hint... people use "eight ever, nine never" way more than they should. Needing a board, consider the finesse even with no known distributional clues. In some games this will convert an average to a near top (or bottom)...but if you need a board, the 1% differernce is well worth the risk. Ben Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luis Posted June 12, 2003 Author Report Share Posted June 12, 2003 Low towards the jack is the correct play for 2 tricks (94.34%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fred Posted June 12, 2003 Report Share Posted June 12, 2003 The idea of this thread is to post no so well know suit plays as we see them appearing in BBO hands or Vugraph broadcasts. From Vugraph: a) J642 and A973 How do you play the suit for 3 tricks? Answer: Lead the 7, if the T appears then cover with the J and play the Ace next.If the ten does not appear then play low if the K or Q appears then cash the Ace.If the K or Q appears when you play the 7 then run the J trying to pin the T.You win 3 tricks if either opp has KQ doubleton or if south has QT or KTYour percentage of success is 10.17%And this is not the correct play if you need only 2 tricks. Pls feel free to post other no well know suit plays if you see them! Luis. Consider this: 2nd hand should play the 8 from 108x andthe 10(!) from 108 doubleton. Does this change your calculations at all? Fred GitelmanBridge Base Inc.www.bridgebase.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luis Posted June 12, 2003 Author Report Share Posted June 12, 2003 [quote author=fred link=board=6;threadid=577;start=0#msg3326 Consider this:2nd hand should play the 8 from 108x andthe 10(!) from 108 doubleton.Does this change your calculations at all? Hi Fred,I don't think this changes the play for 3 tricks. Does it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fred Posted June 12, 2003 Report Share Posted June 12, 2003 [quote author=fred link=board=6;threadid=577;start=0#msg3326 Consider this:2nd hand should play the 8 from 108x andthe 10(!) from 108 doubleton.Does this change your calculations at all? Hi Fred,I don't think this changes the play for 3 tricks. Does it? You are correct that it does not, but supposedthat the original combination included the 8: Axxx J987 Now when you lead toward the J987 and the10 is played, you cover with the J and it loses. If you do not consider the (bizarre but correct)falsecard of the 10 from 10x then you shouldplay to drop the K10 or Q10 doubleton next. If the person you are playing against is capableof this play (ie nobody) then you should finesseon the 2nd round instead. All this really proves is that the best play onpaper is not always the best play at the table! Fred GitelmanBridge Base Inc.www.bridgebase.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luis Posted June 12, 2003 Author Report Share Posted June 12, 2003 All this really proves is that the best play onpaper is not always the best play at the table! "Does he do this because he knows I know he knows?" :-) If you can be so kind I'd like to ask you a question that you may answer based on your international experience. How do you handle this sort of "bluff, double bluff, triple bluff" situations.... Take for example this situation,assuming the Tx falsecard is a play that all expert players will know. Do you change the way you play the suit? Or do you just play the Ace trying to get a doubleton Hx knowing you can be a victim of the falsecard? If I have HT it can be easy to play the ten knowing declarer will finesse then thinking I've just falsecarded.... 8-) this can drive you crazy.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fred Posted June 12, 2003 Report Share Posted June 12, 2003 All this really proves is that the best play onpaper is not always the best play at the table! "Does he do this because he knows I know he knows?" :-) If you can be so kind I'd like to ask you a question that you may answer based on your international experience. How do you handle this sort of "bluff, double bluff, triple bluff" situations.... Take for example this situation,assuming the Tx falsecard is a play that all expert players will know. Do you change the way you play the suit? Or do you just play the Ace trying to get a doubleton Hx knowing you can be a victim of the falsecard? If I have HT it can be easy to play the ten knowing declarer will finesse then thinking I've just falsecarded.... 8-) this can drive you crazy.... First of all, the play I mention is one that only a smallpercentage of experts would know about and most ofthese would not make sure a play at the table. Fortunately there are not a lot of situations in bridgelike this, but as a player you just have to do the bestyou can when they arise. Sometimes you have to guess"is my opponent capable of this play?". At the highest levels, you will never go far wrong byignoring possible falsecards from your opponents andjust falling back on the % play if you are not sure. One advantage of this strategy is it stops youfrom going crazy :) Fred GitelmanBridge Base Inc.www.bridgebase.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bglover Posted June 12, 2003 Report Share Posted June 12, 2003 May i interject here? LLLLLLOOOOOOOOOOOLLLLLLLLL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.