Have you done enough

[paulg]

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IMPs, good opponents who are playing a 12-14 1NT.

 

In the match, one player bid five spades and the other passed. Which camp are you in?

[trevahound]

I probably don't qualify as expert-class, but I'm done. I need very little in partner's hand to beat this, and the insurance is only cheap if they're making. Not sure what the long term point of making them guess is if I am going to guess again right after they guessed. Maybe I might have started with 1♠ and reluctantly taken a few pushes?

[nige1]

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paulg asks "IMPs, good opponents who are playing a 12-14 1NT. In the match, one player bid five spades and the other passed. Which camp are you in?

 

 

 

Neither :)

IMO Double = 10, 5♠ = 9, Pass = 8.

Assuming that, if you double after pre-empting, then you would like partner to sacrifice (unless partner has a strong opinion to the contrary)

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[JLOGIC]

4 major over 1d can be done with a good hand that has a significant amount of defense, I don't think double should mean this hand even if it would be nice here

[the hog]

I would pass now. Bidding 5S means that I am taking the last guess.

[mikeh]

I think this is an interesting situation. The opps could be anywhere from down 1 (I can't see down 2) to being cold for slam.

 

LHO can have a truly fine hand but 2 spade losers, and rho could have a stiff (or void, even) and be concerned that his partner was stretching.

 

So bidding has an extra chance of losing, depending on their forcing pass agreements in this situation.

 

I pass, and retrocatively regret my 4♠ call, that prevents me from knowing what's going on....tho I definitely agree with 4♠ as of my first turn :P

[SteveMoe]

Double will tell partner I have a 5-loser and want to sacrifice but would respect a penalty pass.

[paulg]

I think mikeh summed it up well. For those playing action doubles it just gives partner a headache that he does not want (stiff spade, outside ace). He probably should take the save but you have successfully outsourced the blame.

 

This time it was right to bid on. The full hand is here.

[wank]

i'd bid knowing that it was a gamble and that i'd have to bid 6 if they bid on and partner hasn't smacked it by the time i have to go again. 6sx is still cheaper than 5d on the actual hand after all.

 

people hoping this is going off are excessively optimistic.

[PhilKing]

This talk of action doubles makes me ill. How can it possibly ask partner to bid unless he has a strong opinion to the contrary?

 

He can't have a strong opinion to the contrary - he passed over 5♦! Partner would double 5♦ with two tricks - that is how to express his opinion. When he does not do so, we save. It really is that simple.

 

There was another thread recently where the same upside-down thinking abounded (it was in a poll about preempting followed by double). I wouldn't mind, but TT, of all people, did exactly the same thing to me with 9 solid and out in the pass-out seat after opening 4♥ and getting a 4♠ overcall. Just in case anyone cares, they apply when we are bidding in front of partner. In that scenario we can't sacrifice unilaterally, so doubling says we want to bid one more.

 

Now I get that there is a case for playing double to show extra defence and extra offence, but what on earth would possess us to double with a hand that can't beat seven?

[kayin801]

Sometimes preempts don't work

 

If my partner doubled them every time he had two tricks, especially at IMPs, I would shoot him. We're w/r! I don't have to have #^$$$# on defense for a 4♠ call here. Wouldn't most people bid 4♠ with KQJ 8th of spades and out here?

[helene_t]

Double will tell partner I have a 5-loser and want to sacrifice but would respect a penalty pass.

How can p have a penalty pass? He could have doubled 5♦ if he really expected to beat it.

 

IMO dbl means that I have some defense but also more offense that I might have. P can leave it if he has a bit of defense also.

[PhilKing]

Sometimes preempts don't work

 

If my partner doubled them every time he had two tricks, especially at IMPs, I would shoot him. We're w/r! I don't have to have #^$$$# on defense for a 4♠ call here. Wouldn't most people bid 4♠ with KQJ 8th of spades and out here?

 

I would suggest that KQJxxxxx and out is only a small portion of our range.

 

If partner waits for three cast iron tricks, they are adoptinging a losing strategy. But that's fine - passing is safe and we generally escape criticism.

[han]

In practice I usually don't know whether I have two tricks. Is the heart king a trick? Is AK-sixth of clubs two tricks? Should I double anytime I think that I probably have two tricks? Or only when I know that I have two tricks?

 

I would bid 5S by the way, but only because I think it is the best bid.

[SteveMoe]

How can p have a penalty pass? He could have doubled 5♦ if he really expected to beat it.

 

IMO dbl means that I have some defense but also more offense that I might have. P can leave it if he has a bit of defense also.

We are saying the same thing. Forgive my poor words. By passing the double partner converts my sacrifice intention into a penalty. I do not expect partner to have much for the pass because of earlier bidding. However I do not want to unilaterally walk past the opportunity to play 5♦ doubled if partner has the hand for it and thinks it's better there than at 5♠ doubled. ♠ void comes to mind.

[PhilKing]

In practice I usually don't know whether I have two tricks. Is the heart king a trick? Is AK-sixth of clubs two tricks? Should I double anytime I think that I probably have two tricks? Or only when I know that I have two tricks?

 

I would bid 5S by the way, but only because I think it is the best bid.

 

Should one also double with AQJxxx in clubs, which could be 2 tricks? No, yet when we sacrifice we may make all thirteen on a diamond lead, as we might opposite AKxxxx.

 

Obviously partner does not know whether Jxxx of hearts turns into a trick either. But as 5♠ bidders we are willing to punt a practical and rather obvious sacrifice, and take the blame when it is wrong. The passers are usually just winning the post mortem.

[han]

Why would we take the blame? Isn't it dishonest to take the blame for a decision that you even in retrospect think was right even though it worked out poorly? Do you apologize every time you take a finesse and lose to the stiff king?

[PhilKing]

Do you apologize every time you take a finesse and lose to the stiff king?

 

Only if I have 12 trumps.

[Trinidad]

I pass. Passing can only be bad if I will have to write down -600 at the end of the hand. If I will write down -620, -640 or +100 passing is right.

 

And let's not forget that partner is better placed to decide this than I am.

 

Rik

[han]

I pass. Passing can only be bad if I will have to write down -600 at the end of the hand. If I will write down -620, -640 or +100 passing is right.

 

-300 beats -620 and -640. The opponents don't always make the optimal decision you know.

 

And let's not forget that partner is better placed to decide this than I am.

 

If you typically have a solid 8-card suit when you bid 4S white against red then absolutely.

[Trinidad]

And let's not forget that partner is better placed to decide this than I am.

If you typically have a solid 8-card suit when you bid 4S white against red then absolutely.

What does partner know about our hand? He knows we have a 7-8 card spade suit with a decent to great ODR. Admittedly, at these colors this can be wide ranging.

 

What do we know about partner? Well.. err... well ... he doesn't have 5♦ clearly beaten in his own hand, since he would have doubled. He probably doesn't have a hand that warrants a spade raise... 5♦ could be down on the lead of the ♠AK and an uppercut. Partner could have ♦KQJ and out or he could be broke. The best definition that we have is that, given that we have a 7-8 card spade suit with a decent to great ODR, he (for whatever reason) expects to get the best result if we allow them to play 5♦ undoubled.

 

No matter how wide ranging our 4♠ overcall can be, the range for partner's hand is much wider.

 

Rik

[ArtK78]

I would pass.

 

I can't double - the offensive potential of my hand is good enough for a double, but given that I have no clear defense at all I cannot risk partner passing with 1-2 defensive tricks.

 

My hand is worth a 5♠ call and I would do that if I knew that 5♠x would be the final contract. But I don't know that. I put the opps under a great deal of pressure with my 4♠ call and they guessed to play in 5♦. I don't want to give them a second chance to bid slam if they guessed wrong the first time.

[Trinidad]

I pass. Passing can only be bad if I will have to write down -600 at the end of the hand. If I will write down -620, -640 or +100 passing is right.

-300 beats -620 and -640. The opponents don't always make the optimal decision you know.

I know, but I don't merely care whether -300 beats -620 or -640. How much is relevant too.

 

If I pass, and they score 620 I might have lost 8 (or 3-4) IMPs for not sacrificing in 5♠. If I bid 5♠ and they correctly bid 6♦, I will lose 13 IMPs compared to the quiet passer. Those are not good odds for betting that the opponents will make the wrong decision.

 

Rik

[han]

There are a lot of things that I don't know about partner's hand, but most of these things are not so relevant. There is one really big feature of our hand that partner doesn't know, and that is that we have we have 8 tricks, plus potential for a ninth (compare with AKQxxxxx x xx xx for example, where this potential is much smaller). A quick calculation shows that 5SX won't go for more than 500, which is a really big piece of information. I would also bid 4S at these colors on something like QJ10xxxx x x KQxx, which is a very different hand. My estimation is therefore that we have a better estimate of how well 5S will do than partner does.

 

While I readily admit that 5D will go down sometimes, perhaps because they have to find the heart queen and won't. But I think it will make quite often. And I really don't think that partner should pass with KQJ of diamonds!

[han]

I know, but I don't merely care whether -300 beats -620 or -640. How much is relevant too.

 

If I pass, and they score 620 I might have lost 8 (or 3-4) IMPs for not sacrificing in 5♠. If I bid 5♠ and they correctly bid 6♦, I will lose 13 IMPs compared to the quiet passer. Those are not good odds for betting that the opponents will make the wrong decision.

 

Rik

 

The amount of information that the opponents were able to exchange is very small, there is no reason to think that they will always make it when they bid 6D. Maybe the opponents figure that they won't get rich defending 5SX, and they go down 1 in 6D. In that case we win 12 IMPs. If you assume that the opponents always make the right decisions then you might as well stop preempting.