A Fork in the Road

[daveharty]

[hv=pc=n&s=skq74h5dkt43cj532&n=s8hakjt983daq8c87&d=n&v=0&b=1&a=4c(good%204H%20opening)p4hppp]266|200[/hv]

 

Whatever you think of partner's Namyats opening, here you are declaring 4♥. LHO leads the ♦6. If you ask about their leads, they will tell you "standard, 4th best from length." Unless I am missing something, there seem to be two plausible lines:

 

1. heart hook

2. cash two top hearts; if the Q doesn't fall, play on diamonds and hope to pitch the spade

 

Given the lead, how do you rate your two options?

[ggwhiz]

Door number 2 may be a cinch if rho plays the 5.

[FM75]

Deleted..

[Phil]

I think even less of my failure to bid 4♦, assuming that lets partner declare.

[Phil]

I like #2.

 

#1 fails when the ♥Q is on my right, or when LHO has ♥Qxxx (and when RHO has ♦Jxx). This has a failure rate of 50% + 14% (less 14/5)) + 2% =~ 64%.

 

#2 fails when

 

the ♥Q doesn't drop; (about 70% of the time)

 

or when diamonds are 4-2 or worse (although I win with Jxxxx on with the ♥Q); (64% of the time of the remaining 30% = 17%...53%)

 

or when the ♦J doesn't drop doubleton not having the ♥Q. (84% of the remaining 53%) -->43%.

 

Doesn't seem close if I'm doing my math right. Feel free to correct my work.

[daveharty]

I think even less of my failure to bid 4♦, assuming that lets partner declare.

4♦ would have shown slam interest.

[PinkBanana]

[hv=pc=n&s=skq74h5dkt43cj532&n=s8hakjt983daq8c87&d=n&v=0&b=1&a=4c(good%204H%20opening)p4hppp]266|400|daveharty writes "Whatever you think of partner's Namyats opening, here you are declaring 4♥. LHO leads the ♦6. If you ask about their leads, they will tell you "standard, 4th best from length." Unless I am missing something, there seem to be two plausible lines 1. heart hook 2. cash two top hearts; if the Q doesn't fall, play on diamonds and hope to pitch the spade

Given the lead, how do you rate your two options?

 

1. Works when LHO has ♥Q singleton, doubleton or trebleton.

2. Seems slightly better: it works when

(a) Either opponent has ♥Q singleton or doubleton.

(b) Either opponent has ♥Qxx AND ♦Jxx OR ♦xxx OR ♦xxxx.

© Either opponent has ♥Qxxx AND ♦xxxx

(d) Either opponent has ♥Qxxxx AND ♦xxxx

(e) RHO has ♥Qxx or ♥Qxxx or ♥Qxxxx AND ♦Jxxx (and you guess right)

(f) RHO has ♥Qxx or ♥Qxxx or ♥Qxxxx AND ♦Jxxxx

(g) LHO has ♥Qxx or ♥Qxxx or ♥Qxxxx AND ♦xxxxx[/hv]

[PhilKing]

Who leads a diamond from xxx, xxxx or Jxx on this auction?

 

Good players tend to lead aggressively on this type of auction, I would say. I need to know who is West.