jillybean Posted December 12, 2012 Report Share Posted December 12, 2012 [hv=pc=n&s=sa742hj5daj84ca75&d=w&v=0&b=8&a=p3dp?]133|200|MP[/hv] How do you evaluate this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffford76 Posted December 12, 2012 Report Share Posted December 12, 2012 3NT - you almost certainly have nine on top when you get in, and you probably don't have 11 tricks in diamonds. They're not always going to lead hearts, and even when they do it's no guarantee they have more than four tricks. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lalldonn Posted December 12, 2012 Report Share Posted December 12, 2012 Sure 3NT. We will often make it and they are often cold for 4♥ so it's a great two-way shot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ggwhiz Posted December 12, 2012 Report Share Posted December 12, 2012 If pard also has a doubleton heart I would rather go down in 3nt than 3♦ anyway and they may underlead a black King to pards Queen too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jillybean Posted December 12, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2012 My new mantra is "stoppers are for whimps" [hv=pc=n&s=sa742hj5daj84ca75&w=sqt63haq76d6cq932&n=sj98h3dkqt9753ck4&e=sk5hkt9842d2cjt86]399|300[/hv] The 4 pairs who did bid NT did not get a ♥ lead :blink: , the rest of us languished in 3♦ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeh Posted December 12, 2012 Report Share Posted December 12, 2012 It's important to remember that the opps don't know what the right lead is, even if they have hearts. Imagine being on lead on this auction with say AQxxx in hearts and KQJx in clubs. At mps, there is a lot to be said for a club lead, to avoid giving away a trick to the heart K that declarer is 'known' to hold. The key is to bid in tempo. A hesitation would get LHO thinking that the call wasn't clear and thus may infer you're wide open in a suit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FM75 Posted December 12, 2012 Report Share Posted December 12, 2012 I think you have at best 10% chance partner has A and 5% the K onside. (On average he has just over 2 hearts.)About 10% chance he has 4 hearts. So on a heart lead, less than 25% chance of taking 9 tricks. However a black suit lead is probably between 50% and 60% - They rate to have longer hearts than either black suit and won't lead a diamond. Looks like a pretty good game - unless west is holding honor sequence in hearts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broze Posted December 13, 2012 Report Share Posted December 13, 2012 Do I get to sit on the fence by saying 3NT at IMPs, pass at MPs? At MPs I can take a plus score with probably only 8 tricks opposite a typical x xx KQJTxxx xxx. I can be more aggressive at IMPs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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