Are you hitting 1NT?

[the_dude]

[hv=pc=n&s=sk92h97dj5ckq9752&d=n&v=e&b=9&a=1h1n]133|200[/hv]

 

Swiss teams, 2nd board of match.

 

Our partnership opens all 12s and decent unbalanced 11s. We generally do not open balanced 11s.

 

Are you doubling? If so what are you leading?

[bd71]

I double and think that's the harder decision, but still not that hard. Unless partner has crazy distribution including 5 spades (in which case we'll hear more from him), 3N is our most likely game. I'd rather play where 9 tricks for us in NT is +800 vs. +400. And I'm certainly not throwing away a possible big penalty for a part-score.

 

The obvious lead to me is our systemic lead from club length. We likely need to run clubs for the double to score big. Overcaller has laid claim to some heart stoppers when vul, so I believe him. And we're certainly not going to disrupt spades and our entry until clubs are established.

[billw55]

I double and think that's the harder decision, but still not that hard. Unless partner has crazy distribution including 5 spades (in which case we'll hear more from him), 3N is our most likely game. I'd rather play where 9 tricks for us in NT is +800 vs. +400. And I'm certainly not throwing away a possible big penalty for a part-score.

 

The obvious lead to me is our systemic lead from club length. We likely need to run clubs for the double to score big. Overcaller has laid claim to some heart stoppers when vul, so I believe him. And we're certainly not going to disrupt spades and our entry until clubs are established.

I also double but with less confidence. There is an advantage to declaring, so I think it is more reasonable to expect one less trick when defending. So if we can make 9 tricks declaring 3NT (+400) we might expect 8 tricks defending 1NTx (+500). Or perhaps we don't have game, and are looking at 8 tricks declaring (+120 or -50) compared to 7 defending (+200). Still a gain but not as much.

 

They could even make 1NTx on a bad layout and lead. You lead a club? Declarer could have ♣AJx and only one heart stopper, in which case a heart lead would be much better. Or maybe partner has the ♣A, declarer ♥AQTx, and he can cash 7 or 8 tricks on a heart lead, while the clubs run off the top. There may be a large luck factor on this board. Well, at least 1NTx is not game.

[Phil]

Whip it good.

[Cyberyeti]

Follow up question, do you still hit it if you know opps are playing some rescue mechanism that means if you play 1N you play it redoubled.

[bd71]

They could even make 1NTx on a bad layout and lead. You lead a club? Declarer could have ♣AJx and only one heart stopper, in which case a heart lead would be much better. Or maybe partner has the ♣A, declarer ♥AQTx, and he can cash 7 or 8 tricks on a heart lead, while the clubs run off the top. There may be a large luck factor on this board. Well, at least 1NTx is not game.

 

That's a fair analysis of pros/cons of different leads.

 

But you've conveniently left out your conclusion...what do YOU lead here?

[lalldonn]

My problem with double is they run to 2♠ and then what? I have to bid 3♣ and partner will not pass that so we are getting very high very fast. I also have very high odds of blowing a trick on lead. Not to mention if I double then they may have resource to get out in 2♦ which they would not be able to do if I pass. I would rather just pass and try to collect vulnerable undertricks since I don't think we have a game. If they bid spades then I can bid 3♣ without overstating my hand.

[PhilKing]

My problem with double is they run to 2♠ and then what?

 

It's not as if double makes them run to 2♠. If they do, we just bid 3♣ WTP. It's now safer than if we had passed first time - partner usually hits 2♠ with a stiff club.

[gnasher]

My problem with double is they run to 2♠ and then what? I have to bid 3♣ and partner will not pass that so we are getting very high very fast.

 

I don't think double followed by 3♣ should be forcing. The chance of having a hand for it is quite small, and if we do we'll usually belong in 3NT. Transfers might be the answer.

[the_dude]

Thanks all for for the feedback. I felt that X and a club lead seemed pretty normal and it was just an unlucky hand. A little validation helps :P (except for you lalldonn you were spot on :)

 

Partner's hand was

 

Q10xx

AKxxx

Qxxx

---

 

That's an opener for us and I don't see much to do other than sit for the double. Really the disaster on this hand was our misdefense allowing an overtrick :/ -380 lost us 7 imps and a bunch of VP in the close/deciding match...

[fromageGB]

I'll go for something creative. With one partner at the moment we are trying transfers over their natural NT, and it seems to be working out so far. So X = transfer to clubs. Opener is then better placed to handle a 2♠ rescue from the weak hand, and if he doesn't bid 3♣ I pass.

[jdeegan]

:P I have a very playable and highly descriptive 2♣ bid on a hand where the HCP are likely fairly evenly split. It's too soon to go for the jugular. Let the opps keep bidding and perhaps they will fall into our trap.

[pigpenz]

this maybe one of those situations where we should read why you lose at bridge by Simon.

sometimes it seems we all fall in the category of the unlucky expert

[Cascade]

It is reasonably likely they will run and I think we will be much better placed if I have bid 2♣ rather than Dbl if there is subsequent bidding. So I bid what I consider a down the middle 2♣ rather than toss the dice in 1NTX.

[the hog]

I would certainly NOT double. I would bid 2C on this hand. The opps will run after a double and i will be badly placed.

[RSClyde]

I don't play the double as penalty: just an extention of our defense over their no trump. People often scoff at this but it's amazing how often the penalty goes wrong: even on a hand like this where I really wanted to carry them out.

 

If the double is penalty however, I don't think a new suit over a run out is forcing. You'll virtually never have that hand. When an opponent has a strong no trump I give up an pushy games and scramble intelligently.

[chasetb]

I would not have doubled for 2 simple reasons - I don't have at least 10 HCP (not only that, but it must be 10 useful HCP in my book), and I have a long suit with one entry if I am lucky. I would bid 2♣ easily, and then correct to 2♥ and not feel bad on this misfit.