ATB wrong lead to slam

[Fluffy]

[hv=pc=n&s=s7543ha962d6ca863&w=s82hqt73dqt72ct75&n=sakqj96hkjdk83cj9&e=sth854daj954ckq42&d=e&v=b&b=10&a=ppp1sp2c(druri)p2np4d(splinter)p4np5hd6sppp]399|300[/hv]

 

East led a heart, and contract made

[BunnyGo]

1) Who doubles with that garbage suit, and garbage hand? Is West really aiming for the case where East has KJx or Ax(x) and needs help (under)leading it? That seems a really small target. West 100%

 

2) Who doesn't lead the club with the Ace around and a diamond splinter? Set up your tricks. East 30%--you should still listen to partner.

 

East at least seemed to have a thought when doing his error. The double only gave East a wrong option.

[mikeh]

Both.

 

I really hate the fatuous double of 5♥. I guess West was tired of passing. I can think of no other reason that double could seem like a sensible thing to do. Declarer is marked on the auction with heart values, and the splinter suggests a good chance that dummy also has values, so there is no sound reason to expect partner's presumed side K to be in hearts and lots of reasons to assume it isn't. And unless partner holds the heart K, there is likely to be no hurry to lead the suit, plus there is always the risk of allowing declarer a tempo. West was unlucky to find the odd communication problems that would otherwise have caused declarer grief, but the double was still silly.

 

Having said that: as East we can see that there is virtually no layout where partner has a heart trick and they can make the hand on the club K lead. So East should lead what's in front of his nose. I'd lead it no matter what the 2N meant, unless I was told that it could be based on shortness. I'm not entirely sure what I'd do in that case, but there was no alert. Therefore we KNOW that we can establish a quick club trick and we can be reasonably confident of scoring the diamond A and/or partner having hearts controlled.

[ewj]

I give East the blame, I don't even mind West's double.

(Bit of a freak trump layout that it's cold off on non-♥ lead here tbf...)

[masse24]

I give West 100% of the blame for that *^%$ Double...

until East decided he wanted a piece of the action and wrestled 99% of it back from his partner by failing to lead the ♣. :blink:

[Codo]

Well Make Easts hand 10,K854,AJ954,Q42 and a lead problem. At least some would lead a non heart. So Wests double was not as insane as it looks like. At least I hope it was not. :)

But if West is allowed to make such doubles, East shoul lead a club....

 

So it is mainly a partnership thing. As East I may had stopped thinking about the lead very early after partners command to lead a heart. If I lead a club and it will fail to beat the slam (give them a diamond void and a club suit which I just set up for heart discards), my partner will be VERY annoyed...

[rhm]

On this bidding a heart or club lead is clearly indicated.

West has a clear preference for hearts. He does not want a club lead.

In fact, if West passes 5♥ and East has a difficult choice between hearts and clubs he should lean towards a club lead. Curtains!

West DBL is sensible!

What does East need to overrule partner? If he waits for ♣AKQ, and the ♦A he can wait for a very long time.

I do not know what to call East's lead. "Deranged" comes to mind. Common sense is surely not his strong point.

 

Rainer Herrmann

[ewj]

This reminds me a little of that (Edgar Kaplan was it??) story, where he doubled a cue bid [let's say clubs] but the player held KQJ in a side suit [let's say diamonds] (which Kaplan had previously mentioned meant that God had told you to lead it)...the player led the KQJ suit and the contract made, while leading the cue bid suit would have beaten it...so Kaplan said "God told you to lead a diamond and I told you to lead a club...you guessed wrong, that's all.

 

Actually does anyone have a link to that story as I couldn't find it :(

[gnasher]

I agree with West's double, because he doesn't want South to underlead a club honour. East has an obvious club lead. I can't see how this can cost, because responder would have shown a diamond void if he had one.

[Codo]

I agree with West's double, because he doesn't want South to underlead a club honour. East has an obvious club lead. I can't see how this can cost, because responder would have shown a diamond void if he had one.

 

When? While answering blackwood or over 6 ♠?

[gnasher]

When? While answering blackwood or over 6 ♠?

With a void and two keycards, I think he'd almost certainly have shown it over Keycard. It's not that likely that he'd have started with 2♣, either.

[Codo]

I honestly do not know, but if this is true, maybe Gonzalo had told us? (But if South must hold a singleton diamond and north a semi-balanced hand, a club lead would be mandatory...)

 

And why shouldn't he start with 2 ♣? Maybe Qxxx,xxxx,-;AJT9x is as strong as the actual hand and no preempt in their style? (Make it stronger if you think that this bid is not sufficent for drury.)

[gnasher]

And why shouldn't he start with 2 ♣? Maybe Qxxx,xxxx,-;AJT9x is as strong as the actual hand and no preempt in their style? (Make it stronger if you think that this bid is not sufficent for drury.)

I think that hand is not sufficient for a 2-keycard response :)

 

It's hard to construct a hand that is worth only 2♣ but wouldn't show its void after Keycard (assuming they have methods to do that), and even then the club lead won't necessarily let it through. Maybe Kxxx Axxx - 9xxxx opposite AQxxxx Qx KQ AJ10 is possible, but it doesn't seem likely.

[rhm]

I honestly do not know, but if this is true, maybe Gonzalo had told us? (But if South must hold a singleton diamond and north a semi-balanced hand, a club lead would be mandatory...)

 

And why shouldn't he start with 2 ♣? Maybe Qxxx,xxxx,-;AJT9x is as strong as the actual hand and no preempt in their style? (Make it stronger if you think that this bid is not sufficent for drury.)

Just accept for starters that a singleton is a priory 6 times as likely than a void.

This means that if you lead the king of clubs the probability of seeing a singleton diamond in dummy is at least 85%.

This probability increase even further in favour of a singleton if somebody passes with 2 keycards.

Now assume you partner doubled with KQ in hearts. What does this leave for declarer opposite 2 keycards?

KQ in diamonds, secondary honors in spades and 2 keycards.

Why would he bid 4NT opposite a passed hand with so much diamond duplication?

Assume he does:

Now your partner doubles 5♥. Why would North bid 6♠ missing a keycard, unless he thinks he can deal with a heart lead?

If I have learned one thing over the years is: People do incredible stupid things in this game, but it does not pay to assume your opponents are idiots.

 

Do not look for excuses. Just not leading a club honor is plain silly.

 

Rainer Herrmann

[Codo]

I think that hand is not sufficient for a 2-keycard response :)

 

It's hard to construct a hand that is worth only 2♣ but wouldn't show its void after Keycard (assuming they have methods to do that), and even then the club lead won't necessarily let it through. Maybe Kxxx Axxx - 9xxxx opposite AQxxxx Qx KQ AJ10 is possible, but it doesn't seem likely.

 

Convincing, TY

[PhilKing]

West almost certainly made a bad double, although I would double as well.

 

Double is correct only in a partnership where you have agreed to do it with a marginal holding when you have nothing in the other suit partner is most likely to lead. Clearly E/W had no understanding to that effect.

 

Obviously East should lead a club anyway when North simply jumps to slam - North could pass if he needed his partner to have the king.

[MrAce]

I also think the blame goes to east.

 

I will not get into the debate about how good or bad the dbl was by west. I probably would not have doubled, but i see good points made by good players above about that dbl and they are convincing for me at least to think that it is not a crime. However i just can't understand the non club lead by East.

[silvr bull]

Double is correct only in a partnership where you have agreed to do it with a marginal holding when you have nothing in the other suit partner is most likely to lead.

This is a good description of what seems like the best use of double to me. Granted that using a double as a virtual command to lead that suit is likely to get the best results when one can do that, but it is also a relatively infrequent holding to have in this situation. My guess is that there will be more frequent opportunities to use the double as a simple preference that partner is free to ignore when he has a better alternative. Even so, I do not think the double was well chosen by west. My biggest complaint about the double with QTxx is that it could cause a disaster on some hands if partner holds the Ace of that suit, and leading that ace eliminates one of declarer's problems.

 

FWIW, my preference is that problems like this opening lead question are better presented without also showing the other hand. After seeing both hands, it is immediately clear that a ♣ lead will be better on this hand than a ♥ lead. After seeing that result, it becomes difficult to be fully objective in commenting on the opening lead. I think the east hand opening lead would have made a great poll, with the full hand and results added perhaps a day later after each reader had a chance to make his "at the table" decision. I am sure now that a ♣ lead is best, but in a poll with only the east hand and the auction known, I would have been less confident of that.