College Football (US)

[billw55]

My point is that humans may have other agendas that are not openly proclaimed. In the case of the selection committee, that may include maintaining the credibility and success of the new playoff system. And I do think a big chunk of credibility will be lost if Missouri beats Alabama, then Alabama gets in the playoff and Missouri does not. At least, a big chunk outside Tuscaloosa. I believe so because of one principle of athletics: wins matter more than opinions. People believe it.

 

By the same token, I do believe that the committee would not under any circumstance place three teams from one conference in the playoff. Doing so would cause a large drop in national interest, with associated revenue implications. No, they won't put this in their mission statement.

 

Why? Even if Missouri beats them, Alabama played better throughout the year against a better schedule. That's what the playoffs are supposed to select for, not just the result of one head-to-head matchup. See also Baylor/TCU.

same record

better conference record, in the same conference

head to head win

in the championship game !

 

This is totally convincing to me. And yes, I do think Baylor should get a spot over TCU if it comes down to that. IMO head to head wins should always be the first tiebreaker.

[jeffford76]

better conference record, in the same conference

 

I don't think conference record is a meaningful measure when the teams have such different conference schedules. Of the 8 conference games each played, only 4 were against the same opponents.

[jjbrr]

same record

better conference record, in the same conference

head to head win

in the championship game !

 

I think this would be a valid point if conferences were balanced and divisions within conferences were balanced, but obviously they're not

[Bbradley62]

One berth determined... three to go.

 

Go, Ramblin' Wreck!

[GreenMan]

My point is that humans may have other agendas that are not openly proclaimed. In the case of the selection committee, that may include maintaining the credibility and success of the new playoff system. And I do think a big chunk of credibility will be lost if Missouri beats Alabama, then Alabama gets in the playoff and Missouri does not.

 

There's precedent for that sort of thing. Not long ago Oklahoma lost its conference championship game by 28 points to Kansas State and was still selected for the championship game.

 

The selectors might well decide that letting Missouri into the playoffs ahead of more highly regarded teams will be a bigger blow to the system's credibility and success.

[Bbradley62]

Bama and Oregon in, with two more spots up for grabs. I'm still not convinced that TCU makes it if FSU and Baylor both win tonight.

[jjbrr]

i hope the committee seriously considers leaving FSU out of the playoffs barring a big second half change in this game. baylor and OSU are both almost certainly better. fsu against a top 3 team is going to be a repeat of ND in the 12-13 BCS game. it'll be unfair to the other two teams in the playoff who have to beat a legitimate opponent to advance to the final.

 

has fsu had one impressive game all season?

[jjbrr]

i also hope tcu doesn't get crucified for playing a 2-10 team in their final game and not having a conference championship game.

 

if i were on the committe, assuming fsu holds on and the game isnt a blowout and osu keeps blowing out wisky and baylor beats KSU, 1. bama 2. oregon 3. tcu and put 2 FSUs, 1 OSU, and 1 Baylor into a hat and draw for the 4th team.

[Bbradley62]

i also hope tcu doesn't get crucified for playing a 2-10 team in their final game and not having a conference championship game.

I presume you know this, but some others might not... The Big 12 is the only major conference that doesn't split its teams into two divisions, with the winner of each division playing in its conference championship game. There are only 10 teams in the Big 12 (yes, there were 12 once upon a time) so those 10 teams simply all play each other once and the team with the best record wins the conference. (In the larger conferences, all teams don't play each other during the round-robin part, although all teams within each division do so.) So, TCU happened to have an easy game on their last week simply through the normal schedule, because they had already played both Baylor and Kansas State whereas those two teams had not yet played each other. However, I stand by my prior statement that since both Baylor and TCU finished 11-1 overall and 8-1 in league play, and Baylor won their head-to-head game, I think Baylor should rank ahead of TCU. I don't think making that judgment would be "crucifying" TCU. For those who care, TCU was +213 points in those 9 league games and Baylor was +155 (and TCU beat the highly-ranked Kansas State by 21, whereas Baylor did so by 11, if you want to eliminate the Whack-A-Mole data).

[Bbradley62]

This year, I'd really like a 6 team playoff :P and it would be a different free-for-all to fill a draw of 8.

 

I hope that the two Top 6 teams who are left out of the playoff are assigned to play each other in another bowl game, provided it's not Baylor and TCU.

[jjbrr]

I presume you know this, but some others might not... The Big 12 is the only major conference that doesn't split its teams into two divisions, with the winner of each division playing in its conference championship game. There are only 10 teams in the Big 12 (yes, there were 12 once upon a time) so those 10 teams simply all play each other once and the team with the best record wins the conference. (In the larger conferences, all teams don't play each other during the round-robin part, although all teams within each division do so.) So, TCU happened to have an easy game on their last week simply through the normal schedule, because they had already played both Baylor and Kansas State whereas those two teams had not yet played each other. However, I stand by my prior statement that since both Baylor and TCU finished 11-1 overall and 8-1 in league play, and Baylor won their head-to-head game, I think Baylor should rank ahead of TCU. I don't think making that judgment would be "crucifying" TCU. For those who care, TCU was +213 points in those 9 league games and Baylor was +155 (and TCU beat the highly-ranked Kansas State by 21, whereas Baylor did so by 11, if you want to eliminate the Whack-A-Mole data).

 

Two things:

 

I agree with everything this guy is saying here

 

And the committee has said something to the effect that they're going to make their decisions on a week-by-week basis, so while I understand what you're saying and I think the committee is correct to have TCU ahead of baylor, I think ultimately it's just a drama/entertainment/made for tv thing where baylor will jump TCU in this last week and they'll justify it by saying baylor's resume hadn't been good enough yet because they don't want to offend people on your side of the argument.

[Bbradley62]

Of course, after yesterday's results, the committee very well may simply avoid the whole "TCU or Baylor" problem by picking neither of them, which will immediately set the Big 12 off to revamp their conference system to include a championship game.

[jjbrr]

Also, because the B12 plays a round robin, TCU and Baylor have more shared opponents than any other contenders, so we have more data to draw upon, which is good because we don't have to weigh one game much more heavily than the others.

 

This is like a swiss event where TCU would have finished with 100 VPs and Baylor with like 95 VPs.

[Bbradley62]

The Committee played to win the post mortem.

[jjbrr]

Yep, can't blame them though.

[ArtK78]

Good choices by the committee. Neither Baylor nor TCU was impressive - not just this week - all season long. OSU is clearly a better team. Won when they had to against good opposition, and won 59-0 against a good Wisconsin team with their third string QB. That was impressive.

 

Florida State is rightly included, and 3rd is probably right.

 

As for Alabama and Oregon as 1-2, that is hard to argue.

 

Should be a good playoff.

 

Big 12 has no one to blame but themselves - co-champions is silly. Probably didn't make too much difference at the end, however.

[jjbrr]

I know it's logistically impossible, but it would be cool if in addition to deciding which teams make the playoffs, the committee could also decide to invite between 2 and 8 teams to play if it makes sense and doesn't jack up brackets too much

[GreenMan]

Of course, after yesterday's results, the committee very well may simply avoid the whole "TCU or Baylor" problem by picking neither of them, which will immediately set the Big 12 off to revamp their conference system to include a championship game.

 

A conference can only have a championship game if it has 12 members; the Big 12 has 10 after all that shuffling of the past few years. So it would have to actually add two members or get the NCAA to approve a waiver, which I suspect it would be unlikely to do.

 

What all this means is we'll now have the spectacle of one of the major conferences going begging for members so it can be in the new playoff system. This is just what the system needs to appear legitimate. :blink:

[billw55]

The Committee played to win the post mortem.

Perhaps. Or maybe they leaned towards OSU's national appeal and travel-ready fans. Or maybe they just picked who they thought was best.

 

In any case, the decision is defensible and will lead to a successful playoff in every sense. A couple more years of this, and expansion to 8 teams is inevitable.

 

The main weird thing is that TCU was ranked 3rd, won 55-3, and fell to 6th. If this kind of thing is going to happen, they would be better off not publishing rankings at all before the final decision. Compare basketball.

[Bbradley62]

The new four-team system probably saved NCAA from an ugly situation. Which two teams would they have picked for this year's championship game under the prior one-game system?

[billw55]

The new four-team system probably saved NCAA from an ugly situation. Which two teams would they have picked for this year's championship game under the prior one-game system?

As I recall, the BCS was two thirds human polls and one third computer ranks. From the human influence, we would likely have Florida State and Alabama. FSU's computer rank is lower, not sure if enough to drop them out though.

[ArtK78]

Perhaps. Or maybe they leaned towards OSU's national appeal and travel-ready fans. Or maybe they just picked who they thought was best.

 

In any case, the decision is defensible and will lead to a successful playoff in every sense. A couple more years of this, and expansion to 8 teams is inevitable.

 

The main weird thing is that TCU was ranked 3rd, won 55-3, and fell to 6th. If this kind of thing is going to happen, they would be better off not publishing rankings at all before the final decision. Compare basketball.

The explanation is two-fold.

 

First, the chairman of the committee has appeared publicly and stated that the previous week's rankings reflected essentially a four-way tie for third place between TCU, Florida State, Ohio State and Baylor. The rankings of those four teams were very close.

 

Second, TCU's game against Iowa State had almost no impact on the final rankings. It was essentially a non-game. Baylor's game against K-State had some impact (and K-State was a highly ranked opponent). But neither was a conference championship game. Ohio State played a conference championship game against Wisconsin, a ranked opponent. And Florida State played a conference championship game against Georgia Tech, a ranked opponent. By winning their conference championship games, Ohio State and Florida State got a boost (especially OSU, which won 59-0 with a third-string QB).

 

Now, if TCU played Baylor this past weekend in the hypothetical Big 12 Championship Game, that might have changed the result. The fact that Baylor beat TCU earlier in the season in a truly strange game did not carry as much weight with the committee as a real conference championship game would have done.

 

Also, OSU's out of conference schedule, while not among the toughest in the country, was far superior to the out of conference schedules of Baylor and TCU. Baylor's was near the bottom, and TCU's was, in fact, last.

[Bbradley62]

As I recall, the BCS was two thirds human polls and one third computer ranks. From the human influence, we would likely have Florida State and Alabama. FSU's computer rank is lower, not sure if enough to drop them out though.

Found a site that addressed the computer ranking question: http://fansided.com/2014/12/07/college-football-playoffs-bcs-rank-top-teams/ . FSU and Oregon are even there, behind Alabama.

[mike777]

Happy with the final 4.

 

expect to expand to 16 for the money and ratings

 

not about the players

[Bbradley62]

To help our annual analysis of whether the SEC is over-rated, SEC teams bold, spread printed in 12/24 morning paper, rankings per Selection Committee:

Favorite...........Spread.....Underdog

Miami..21............3.5......South Carolina..24

W Virginia..37.......3.5......Texas A&M..45

Arkansas..31.........6........Texas..7

LSU(23)..28..........7.5......Notre Dame..31

Georgia(13)..37......7........Louisville(21)..14

TCU(6)..42...........3.5......Mississippi(9)..3

MS St(7)..34.........7........Georgia Tech(12)..49

Auburn(19)..31.......6.5......Wisconsin(18)..34

Missouri(16)..33.....5........Minnesota(25)..17

Alabama(1)..35.......9.5......Ohio St(4)..42

Tennessee..45........3.5......Iowa..28

Florida..28..........6.5......East Carolina..20