billw55 Posted November 20, 2014 Report Share Posted November 20, 2014 Well, it is shaping up to be the Big 10 that misses the field, which seems fair as things have gone this year. Still there are some nontrivial games left. Heck, Alabama and MSU could both take losses. I wonder how the committee would handle a 2-loss SEC champ. I do believe that soon we will have an 8 team field, and it will become even more difficult to worry that a true contender is left out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike777 Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 If this is about money and tv ratings in late Dec and Jan then 16 teams should bring in the bucks and eyeballs. I assume the priority is to maximize profits, tv and gambling/office pools, not about the kids. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bbradley62 Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 I'm rooting for Missouri, GA Tech, Utah and Wisconsin to win their conferences, just to see what the committee does. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike777 Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 I'm rooting for Missouri, GA Tech, Utah and Wisconsin to win their conferences, just to see what the committee does. who cares what the commitees do...I mean really...who cares People care about money ...lots and lots of money who the hell cares about a few old white guys on some silly committeee Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billw55 Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 If this is about money and tv ratings in late Dec and Jan then 16 teams should bring in the bucks and eyeballs. I assume the priority is to maximize profits, tv and gambling/office pools, not about the kids.I think 16 teams would be a good system. We may have that eventually. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bbradley62 Posted November 22, 2014 Report Share Posted November 22, 2014 I'm rooting for Missouri, GA Tech, Utah and Wisconsin to win their conferences, just to see what the committee does.who cares what the commitees do...I mean really...who cares People care about money ...lots and lots of money who the hell cares about a few old white guys on some silly committeee"[T]he committee" I was referring to is the College Football Playoff Selection Committee. I suspect that a great many people care what that committee does, at least in part because the four teams selected by them will get "money ...lots and lots of money". Probably not many people in Singapore care. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdano Posted November 22, 2014 Report Share Posted November 22, 2014 I do believe that soon we will have an 8 team field, and it will become even more difficult to worry that a true contender is left out.I am sure that would pretty much stop the endless debates about who should get selected. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billw55 Posted November 24, 2014 Report Share Posted November 24, 2014 I am sure that would pretty much stop the endless debates about who should get selected.Agree, witness the basketball event. 64+n teams, and you see that all discussion of snubs is ended. http://www.bridgebase.com/forums/public/style_emoticons/default/laugh.gif Sarcasm aside, this is not the same as what I was saying. I meant that it would be hard to argue that a realistic title contender was left out. It can always be argued that the 9th team deserved to be 8th, and hence get to play. But I doubt you will hear much argument that the 9th team would have won. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenMan Posted November 25, 2014 Report Share Posted November 25, 2014 Sarcasm aside, this is not the same as what I was saying. I meant that it would be hard to argue that a realistic title contender was left out. It can always be argued that the 9th team deserved to be 8th, and hence get to play. But I doubt you will hear much argument that the 9th team would have won. ... unless the 8th team wins or almost wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bbradley62 Posted November 25, 2014 Report Share Posted November 25, 2014 If the 2007 New York Giants could win the Super Bowl after arguably not being among the 8 best teams in the NFL (out of 32), I don't see why the 9th best college football team (out of 200+) couldn't sometimes win the NCAA playoff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike777 Posted November 25, 2014 Report Share Posted November 25, 2014 the endless debate is good not bad for football. People are talking football and care. In any case whatever the max for money....gambling/office pools/tv I think 16 but perhaps over time more. Again this in not about the kids or students-- At this point in time very young kids are dropping out of the sport but dropping back in at the HS and college levels, today.ONe reason is the very large rosters compared to other options -- As noted in other forums, gambling and football and tv are a perfect marriage compared to other options. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billw55 Posted November 25, 2014 Report Share Posted November 25, 2014 If the 2007 New York Giants could win the Super Bowl after arguably not being among the 8 best teams in the NFL (out of 32), I don't see why the 9th best college football team (out of 200+) couldn't sometimes win the NCAA playoff.Pro teams have much less disparity in skill than college teams. The difference between 1 and 9, or 1 and 32, or whatever, will always be significantly larger in college. Even so, yes, perhaps rarely the 8th or 9th seed could win. Looking at the most current composite ranks, I see: 8. Georgia9. UCLA10. Michigan State All these teams have two losses. So it is easy to argue that they had their chances. Could these teams win three straight games against elite teams? Unlikely. UCLA and MSU each have a home loss to a higher ranked contender. Georgia has two losses to now unranked SEC teams. I don't think you would find anyone outside of their respective fan bases that would argue any of these teams have a strong claim to inclusion in a playoff. Of course, I am imagining those as season end ranks. As it is, Georgia could still end up SEC champion. We'll see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bbradley62 Posted December 3, 2014 Report Share Posted December 3, 2014 So, going into the last weekend, the Top 5 are from 5 different conferences. Final weekend match-ups are:#1 Alabama vs #16 Missouri#2 Oregon vs #7 Arizona#3 TCU vs unranked Iowa State#4 FSU vs #11 GA Tech#5 Ohio State vs # 13 Wisconsin#6 Baylor vs #9 Kansas State It seems to me that all of the top 7 have a chance to be included in the championship playoffs. Personally, I think that if Baylor and TCU both win and finish with one loss, Baylor should be ranked higher based on their H2H game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billw55 Posted December 3, 2014 Report Share Posted December 3, 2014 It seems to me that all of the top 7 have a chance to be included in the championship playoffs. Personally, I think that if Baylor and TCU both win and finish with one loss, Baylor should be ranked higher based on their H2H game.Strongly agree. Also, I think Missouri is in with a win. Leaving out the SEC champ would be ... controversial, to say the least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjbrr Posted December 3, 2014 Report Share Posted December 3, 2014 Na, the SECe is one of the weakest divisions in the entire country this year. The SEC representative should come from the west or not at all Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjbrr Posted December 3, 2014 Report Share Posted December 3, 2014 And Missouri's losses are to Indiana and 34-0 to UGA, with TAMU their only 'quality' win so far. Pretty tough to argue they deserve it over Baylor or OSU depending on how OSU looks this week Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billw55 Posted December 3, 2014 Report Share Posted December 3, 2014 I get all that. Still, SEC champ and defeating Alabama (the champ of the mighty west division) in the process rates a spot in my book. Although admittedly, it would be amusing to hear the SEC homers howl over getting no bid at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtK78 Posted December 3, 2014 Report Share Posted December 3, 2014 I don't think you have to worry too much about what would happen if Missouri beat Alabama. [i can see this comment coming back to bite me] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billw55 Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 I don't think you have to worry too much about what would happen if Missouri beat Alabama.I agree that Alabama is a solid favorite. Some exaggerate this though. Nate Silver recently published his estimate of the probabilities of each team making the playoff. Alabama was at 94%, which amounts to saying they are 94% to beat Missouri. I consider that a big overbid, and would certainly bet Missouri at 16:1 odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffford76 Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 I agree that Alabama is a solid favorite. Some exaggerate this though. Nate Silver recently published his estimate of the probabilities of each team making the playoff. Alabama was at 94%, which amounts to saying they are 94% to beat Missouri. I consider that a big overbid, and would certainly bet Missouri at 16:1 odds. Actually he has Alabama at 82% to win the game, but also 64% to get in even if they lose the game. Bookmakers are giving odds similar to the 82% number. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billw55 Posted December 5, 2014 Report Share Posted December 5, 2014 Actually he has Alabama at 82% to win the game, but also 64% to get in even if they lose the game. Bookmakers are giving odds similar to the 82% number.Hmmm, interesting. I consider Alabama losing and still getting in to be a longshot. First of all, it would be a travesty if Alabama got in and Missouri did not. So you would need both of them in. So to fill out the four team field, you would have room for only two teams among TCU, Baylor, Oregon, Florida State, and Ohio State. Hence you need three losses there. And the right three losses at that: for example if Arizona beats Oregon while Alabama plus two other top teams lose, then Arizona could be considered for a spot. I can't see this parlay as 64%, I would think probably less than 25%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjbrr Posted December 5, 2014 Report Share Posted December 5, 2014 that's not how this works. that's not how any of this works Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billw55 Posted December 5, 2014 Report Share Posted December 5, 2014 that's not how this works. that's not how any of this worksAre you sure? These are humans on a committee, not computer ranks. How do *you* think they work? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjbrr Posted December 5, 2014 Report Share Posted December 5, 2014 I think they work exactly how they claim they work: What is the Mission of the Selection Committee? The committee’s task will be to select the best teams, rank the teams for inclusion in the playoff and selected other bowl games and, then assign the teams to sites. http://www.collegefootballplayoff.com/selection-committee-faqs The goal of a conference championship is not to determine the "best teams", but rather to determine the most successful team within only its conference. And so while a conference championship game should and will be heavily weighted in determining the "best teams", it is still only one game in a long season. Obviously the committee system won't be perfect, but it will always be better to use a sample of lots of games rather than 1 conference game to determine the "best teams", particularly when the 1 conference game might not even be between the "best teams" in the conference. I'm not sure what your point is about humans vs computers. I think either humans or computers can do a fine job of selecting "best teams", particularly if they weigh other factors into their decision besides potentially shitty "best team" predictors like conference championship games. I put "best teams" in quotations because I think there are different arguments about what can and should determine who the "best teams" are, but imo and in the opinion of pretty much everyone, "best team" and "most successful within only its conference" are often completely different things. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffford76 Posted December 5, 2014 Report Share Posted December 5, 2014 First of all, it would be a travesty if Alabama got in and Missouri did not. Why? Even if Missouri beats them, Alabama played better throughout the year against a better schedule. That's what the playoffs are supposed to select for, not just the result of one head-to-head matchup. See also Baylor/TCU. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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