Same Slam with Same Probability

[lycier]

[hv=pc=n&s=sajt3hakqjt9d952c&w=s75h3dt863caj9864&n=sq9642h84daj4cqt5&e=sk8h7652dkq7ck732&d=n&v=0&b=1&a=pp1hp1sp4cp4dp5cp5dp5hp6sp]399|300[/hv]

 

5♣=exclusion RKCB

5♦= 1 key card

5♥=ask trump Q

6♠=♠Q without others

 

Actually,North player make both of 7♠ and 6♠ with same probability distribution,but now ,are you willing to bid 7♠?

[Fluffy]

detecting 5/7 hands is not an easy task, here is no exception. From south's POV partner could have ♦AKQ and ♠xxxx, althou I think with that hand he would rather sing off in 5♠, he can also have ♠Kxxxx or even 6 cards, wich makes grand pretty good.

 

it is very hard to make an unbiased analysis when we are presented both hands, if only south's hand was there we could tell you if 7♠ would be bid or not.

[Trinidad]

[hv=pc=n&s=sajt3hakqjt9d952c&w=s75h3dt863caj9864&n=sq9642h84daj4cqt5&e=sk8h7652dkq7ck732&d=n&v=0&b=1&a=pp1hp1sp4cp4dp5cp5dp5hp6sp]399|300[/hv]

5♣=exclusion RKCB

5♦= 1 key card

5♥=ask trump Q

6♠=♠Q without others

 

Actually,North player make both of 7♠ and 6♠ with same probability distribution,but now ,are you willing to bid 7♠?

I don't think so.

[hv=pc=n&s=sajt3hakqjt9d952c&w=s75h3dt8643caj864&n=skq964h84djcqt975&e=s82h7652dakq7ck732&d=n&v=0&b=1&a=pp1hp1sp4cp4dp5cp5dp5hp6sp]399|300[/hv]

[hv=pc=n&s=sajt3hakqjt9d952c&w=skqh83dt864ck8642&n=s9876542h4dajca97&e=sh7652dkq73cqjt53&d=n&v=0&b=1&a=pp1hp1sp4cp4dp5cp5dp5hp6sp]399|300[/hv]

 

5♣=exclusion RKCB

5♦= 1 key card

5♥=ask trump Q

6♠=♠Q without others

 

Rik

[JLOGIC]

I tried bidding seven on a five or seven hand once and the vugraph commentators thought I was retarded. I wouldn't really worry about it.

[Fluffy]

in my case they said I was extremelly lucky :)

 

Rik, I don't buy that partner lacks first round control in diamonds, he cuebid it twice. And some SB will tell you that east has a 1♦ opening also lol

[Trinidad]

in my case they said I was extremelly lucky :)

 

Rik, I don't buy that partner lacks first round control in diamonds, he cuebid it twice. And some SB will tell you that east has a 1♦ opening also lol

He cuebid diamonds only once. The 5♦ bid was a reply to the 5♣ exclusion RKCB (see OP). (For me exclusion is a jump, but fir the OP 5♣ was exclusion. I guess it is playable to play a cue in a suit that you splintered in as exclusion.)

 

As to the opening bid: Move an honor from East to West (preferably the ♠K ;) ) and SB's will also be happy.

 

Rik

[Fluffy]

then its easy to see ano 5-7 hand with ♦AK and ♠Q in partner's hand.

[Trinidad]

then its easy to see a no 5-7 hand with ♦AK and ♠Q in partner's hand.

No, since 6♠ denied the ♦K.

6♠=♠Q without others

The point of the OP is that:

1) 6♠ denied any side suit kings.

2) That, therefore, 4♦ must have shown the ace.

3) And that, therefore, the missing keycard must be the ♠K.

 

I tried to show with my first example that the step from 1) to 2) is not correct, since 4♦ might have been based on a singleton.

With my second example, I tried to show that you might also be off the ♠KQ, when partner showed a queen that he didn't have because he judged it to be irrelevant.

 

Rik