Jump to content

Open or not?


kfay

Recommended Posts

Borderline.

 

Much better than the typical balanced 11 HCP rubbish, which is nowadays opened by many routinely.

I suspect almost all on this forum would open

 

[hv=pc=n&s=sqj7h9654dakj95c2]133|100|2nd seat unfavorable IMPs[/hv]

 

which is not better.

 

Rainer Herrmann

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Borderline.

 

Much better than the typical balanced 11 HCP rubbish, which is nowadays opened by many routinely.

I suspect almost all on this forum would open

 

[hv=pc=n&s=sqj7h9654dakj95c2]133|100|2nd seat unfavorable IMPs[/hv]

 

which is not better.

 

Rainer Herrmann

It's a lot better if we don't find a fit. Or if partner doubles something.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's a lot better if we don't find a fit. Or if partner doubles something.

"a lot" is an exaggeration. A tiny bit better I can agree.

 

The chances of finding a fit with 4=4=5=0 compared to 3=4=5=1 are substantially better, as are game chances.

The chances of finding at least an eight card fit with 4=4=5=0 is 89.27% and for a nine card fit it is still 44.4%.

Chances of finding no fit is less than having a ten card or better fit.

 

I am not claiming that Pass can not win. But there is reason to be optimistic here.

As can be seen from the comments in this thread compared to others, most people get aggressive with the wrong type of hands when it comes to opening bid requirements.

 

Rainer Herrmann

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As can be seen from the comments in this thread compared to others, most people get aggressive with the wrong type of hands when it comes to opening bid requirements.

That is not at all clear. There are many reasons that could be the case. For example, after passing on this hand it will generally be easy to come in later so nothing may have been lost by passing, whereas on the "worse" hands that people open in other threads, it may be harder to come in later.

 

Lots of what you say is incomplete evidence. Yes game chances are better on 4450 than 3451, but do you know they are better on 4450 9 count compared to 3451 11 count? (I'm sure now that I brought it up, you will tell me...) Yes a fit is likely with 4450 but will you always get to a 5-3 diamond fit, or even want to play it? And how likely is a fit with 3451?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That is not at all clear. There are many reasons that could be the case. For example, after passing on this hand it will generally be easy to come in later so nothing may have been lost by passing, whereas on the "worse" hands that people open in other threads, it may be harder to come in later.

This is always claimed when people choose Pass as their initial option. I do not share this view. Tempo is crucial in the bidding. Even if I could show my precise distribution after opponents bidding I prefer coming in first and giving opponents a problem to show their strength and distribution.

 

Lots of what you say is incomplete evidence. Yes game chances are better on 4450 than 3451, but do you know they are better on 4450 9 count compared to 3451 11 count? (I'm sure now that I brought it up, you will tell me...) Yes a fit is likely with 4450 but will you always get to a 5-3 diamond fit, or even want to play it?

Evidence is almost always incomplete :rolleyes: Otherwise there would hardly be anything to argue about.

I choose the 3451 11 count example hand, because a priory I evaluate it as roughly equivalent in value to the 4450 9 count. I agree that on defense I slightly prefer the 5431 11 count.

If I get a fit and we declare I have a preference for the 4450 (a big preference if played in spades).

 

And how likely is a fit with 3451?

With 3451 chances for at least an 8 card fit is 85.8% for a nine card fit 39%

Game chances for 4=4=5=0 is a priory 45% and for 3=4=5=1 33% , but this is over the whole HCP distribution.

Game chances for an 11 and 9 HCP hand in general over all shapes are 32% and 24%.

 

Rainer Herrmann

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Borderline.

 

Much better than the typical balanced 11 HCP rubbish, which is nowadays opened by many routinely.

I suspect almost all on this forum would open

 

[hv=pc=n&s=sqj7h9654dakj95c2]133|100|2nd seat unfavorable IMPs[/hv]

 

which is not better.

 

Rainer Herrmann

 

Not close to a borderline opening.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I would open. But i am aware my choice is very agressive, for some of you probably insane, but whatever, i would really open. Please don't throw eggs on me, i am just honestly saying what i would do with this hand. :)

 

Opening light has disadvanteges, worst of them is finding a partner who has no fit and not enough hcps to close the gap, but strong enough to drag us too high and perhaps doubled. I am aware of that, but i really think this hand has really good pottential to find a fit. Passing is obviously the normal call on that hand, i am also aware that i am splitting my path from others.

 

Otoh Rainer was more than fair enough actually, we see almost all 11 hcp 4432 hands opening, let alone 5431. (check the vugraph archives, i am talking about world class top players) So 544 with decent spotr and both majors instead of 4432 worths 2 hcp ? I dunno, but having both majors i am getting in right now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I would only open that in 3rd or 4th seat, if partner has a 13 point 3-3-4-3 hand you might end up in 3NT -3 on a club lead, and if he has a 16+ point 4-3-1-5 hand he might be looking for slam when the most you can make is 4.

 

 

You mean something like that ?

 

AKQx

Axx

Q

Jxxxx

 

Just kidding :P

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...