Six of one, half dozen of the other

[daveharty]

[hv=pc=n&s=sakj95ha74dkjcaq2&n=sqt6hk83da9853c75]133|200[/hv]

 

IMPs. Opps are silent throughout; West leads the ♥J. What is your plan:

 

1. ...in 6♠?

2. ...in 6NT?

[TWO4BRIDGE]

6♠ is the higher percentage slam.

 

6NT requires the 3-3 ♦ split with the Q onside.

 

.. whereas 6♠ can still make with :

1)

♦

Q offside but still 3-3 split or

2)

♦

Q onside and

4-2 split

 

6NT could still make with ♦Q onside and 4-2 split but would need the ♣ finesse ( K onside ) as well.

[ArtK78]

6♠ is the higher percentage slam.

 

6NT requires the 3-3 ♦ split with the Q onside.

 

.. whereas 6♠ can still make with :

1)

♦

Q offside but still 3-3 split or

2)

♦

Q onside and

4-2 split

 

6NT could still make with ♦Q onside and 4-2 split but would need the ♣ finesse ( K onside ) as well.

6NT will also make with 3-3 diamonds if the ♦Q is offside if the club finesse is on.

 

There is also a remote chance of a club/heart squeeze.

 

The main advantage that 6S has over 6NT is that it is cold if the ♣K is onside and clubs break no worse than 6-2.

[Fluffy]

6NT is easy play a diamond to the jack early and keep ♥K as entry for squeeze purposes.

 

6♠ is a lot more complicated, I wanna test spades to see if I can ruff 2 diamonds or not, but also wanna ruff a club in dummy and don't have the entries for everything and trying a losing club fines early removes ♥K entry that should be saved if diamonds break... too much for the early morning, will try it later.

[KayRo]

6NT requires the 3-3 ♦ split with the Q onside... whereas 6♠ can still make with :

1)

♦

Q offside but still 3-3 split or2)

♦

Q onside and

4-2 split

6NT could still make with ♦Q onside and 4-2 split but would need the ♣ finesse ( K onside ) as well.

 

 

6NT will also make with 3-3 diamonds if the ♦Q is offside if the club finesse is on.There is also a remote chance of a club/heart squeeze.The main advantage that 6S has over 6NT is that it is cold if the ♣K is onside and clubs break no worse than 6-2.

 

 

What am I missing??

 

I count 5♠+2♥+1♣=8 sure tricks. Getting to 12 requires 4♦ tricks on A9853 to KJ.

Playing low to the J should make 6NT on:

any 3-3 split (with overtrick if finesse is on)

any 4-2 split with q onside

QT offside

stiff T offside

and with QTxxx(x) onside in can make on ♣K onside or possibly some squeese

[phil_20686]

You also make 6N whenever there is Tx of diamonds surely?

[ArtK78]

Yes, there are many more possibilities in the diamond suit relating to the fall of the 10. I didn't notice the spots.

 

All in all, not a bad contract.