Defend 3N

[Phil]

IMPs, short matches.

 

[hv=pc=n&s=s762hq93d74cakt72&e=skq3ha62dt62c8543&d=w&v=e&b=16&a=1n(15-17)p2cd2dp2np3nppp]266|200[/hv]

 

(East is dummy on your right)

 

Partner leads the ♣J.

 

Opponents have no agreement about 2♦ over the double with regards to a club stopper.

[ewj]

I would duck. There's a chance partner has another ♣ and if he doesn't there's a reasonable chance we couldn't beat it anyway or that being active and switching to a ♥ gives the contract.

[gszes]

DUCK and encourage (my carding tells me to follow with the 2)

 

First and foremost we need to keep communication open in case P has

another club (nothing in the bidding makes that impossible). The other main

advantage is that declarer is now going to be forced to take all finesses into

p hand and we may gain a couple of extra tricks to make up for the 2 clubs

we lose when p has a singleton club and we dont cash. A third smaller chance

is that declarer will try to make the contract by taking no finesses at all (fearing

clubs) and go down on a contract that takes a simple heart finesse to make.

If we clear clubs declarer can finesse us in hearts with impunity (something we

dont want to encourage since we have the Q).

 

If there seemed some reasonable alternative to ducking the club it might be

beneficial to take the top 2 clubs and switch depending on how p signals. I

am unconvinced p has enough on their own to set this contract and believe

our best chance lies in the club suit.

[Fluffy]

duck the club looks pretty bad, declarer has no majors and neither does dummy!, declarer would need specificall 3352 or 6 diamonds, too specific.

 

I am switching to a heart, but I am not sure if I should cash the club or not. If partner has a diamond stopper and ♥K10xx or ♥Kxxxx we will defeat regardless. If he has ♥J8xx or better and 2 tricks we also defeat with no problem, I prefer not to cash it since then declarer might end up guessing ♦KQ behind if he can count everything

[bluecalm]

I like what Fluffy said.

[awm]

I'm ducking. A switch seems to require very specific honor holdings in partner's hand.

[Fluffy]

I'm ducking. A switch seems to require very specific honor holdings in partner's hand.

 

If partner doesn't have a diamond honnor by ducking you only defeat when declarer has 3352 mising ♠A and ♥J. Anything else requires a diamond honnor in partner's hand already

[awm]

If declarer has AKQxx of diamonds and only ducking can ever set. Partner cannot have both spade ace and heart king, so declarer either has nine tops or leads up to the spades twice.

 

If declarer is 3343 it doesn't seem to matter if we duck or win the first trick. Either he has nine tricks or not, but there isn't really a tempo issue.

 

Winning the club can set if partner has king-ten of heart and a diamond trick or has jack of heart and two diamond tricks. This is pretty specific and seems less likely than partner having a second club.

[Phil]

Who knows? This seems to be a tough problem and Adam and Gonzo make great points.

 

At the table, I chose to win the club and play a heart right away. Regretably, declarer had Axx KJx KQJxx Q2, so ducking would have worked.

 

The other table didn't set it either.

[Fluffy]

actually this is a great hand for simulation, excluding some hands where partner has ♦Qx/KQ/KJ/AJ, I think your gut feeling about likelyhood of club doubleton is not accurate

 

BTW Its not that partner needs ♥K10, he needs either KJ, K10 or K 5th.

[akhare]

I am ducking with the most emphatic encouraging card and following up with Smith echo or equivalent (if we play it and there's time for it)..

[han]

If declarer has AKQxx of diamonds and only ducking can ever set. Partner cannot have both spade ace and heart king, so declarer either has nine tops or leads up to the spades twice.

 

If declarer is 3343 it doesn't seem to matter if we duck or win the first trick. Either he has nine tricks or not, but there isn't really a tempo issue.

 

I would not expect declarer to be 3343, he did freely bid 2D after all. But declarer could be 2353 or 3253, in which case ducking is almost guaranteed to let it make but winning and shifting to hearts has good chances.

 

I'd say that with 3253 or 2353 declarer is more likely to bid 3NT than with 3352 and Qx of clubs. Certainly after a smooth 3NT I would be inclined to play him for Qxx of clubs.

[SteveMoe]

Ducking works whenever ♣s are 2-2 and partner has 1 entry. There are several honor card packages partner might have that serve the need.

 

Try as I might, the limitations on partner's HCP (5-6) do not leave him/her enough entries to get done all that's needed when declarer has 3♣ cards. Partner can have either the ♠A or the ♥K but not both. Indeed partner might have ♥J ♦KJ ♣J and declarer wins the trick race even when losing 2 to partner (3=2=3=1 tricks - declarer can always lead a ♣ from dummy to hand if I win the first and switch).

 

There are more successful cases where ♣ split 2-2 than when they split 3-1, so I will duck.

[han]

Try as I might, the limitations on partner's HCP (5-6) do not leave him/her enough entries to get done all that's needed when declarer has 3♣ cards.

 

Did you try giving partner the heart king and the diamond queen?

 

There are more successful cases where ♣ split 2-2 than when they split 3-1, so I will duck.

 

There are more hands succesful cases where declarer has 10 HCP then there are cases where declarer has 16 HCP, but that does not mean you should play declarer for 10 HCP.