MATH ? King or Jack

[dickiegera]

[hv=pc=n&w=shdc7653&e=shdckjt94]266|100[/hv]

 

I am in a 6♣ contract and have no losers outside of trump suit.

Plenty of entries.

On the lead of a small ♣ from dummy RHO plays the 2 of ♣.

This leaves the AQ8 to be played. I figure that there are 8 ways they could be in opponents hands.

If LHO has AQ8 or AQ it makes no difference what I do because I will be down.

If LHO has Q8 or Q I need to play the K to make my contract

If LHO has A8 or A or 8 or Void I need to play the J[10] to make the contract.

 

Does this mean that there are only 6 way I should consider making the odds 4 to 2 {2 to 1] in favor of playing the J

or am I missing something?

 

Thank you

[lalldonn]

It's not exactly 4-2 since they aren't all equally likely. But you have the right idea.

[FM75]

If South had AQ, would you have seen the X card?

[sfi]

If South had AQ, would you have seen the X card?

 

That doesn't matter, since you are going down in any case if that's the layout.

[kuhchung]

I always double when I hold the ace and queen of trumps

[Fluffy]

This kind of combo is always played on a finese against the queen, barring clues from bidding etc, wich only requires the queen to be onside (50%), while playing to the king requires ace onside and something extra. The difference comes when the 9 is missing

 

J10xx versus Kxxxx (missing AQ9x) similar are Jxxx versus K10xxx missing AQ9x and the 4-5, 3-6 and 6-3 distributions, but not when KJ10 are together

 

here you cannot catch Q9x nor AQ9 so you rather pick stiff queens and Qx behind.