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What is the best chance to make this grand?


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After some frisky bidding, you arrive in the not very good contract of 7 diamonds. LHO leads a small spade (3.,5.), and now you have to weigh your options. Obviously, you need clubs 3-2 (although lucky splits may see you through when the club queen is singleton), but how do you go about establishing the club suit?

 

 

[hv=pc=n&s=sah2daqt74cak5432&n=sk432haqt3dk82cj6]133|200[/hv]

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I got 2 tricks, 1 trick, likely 5 tricks and 2 tricks. So I need to establish 3 additional tricks. Doing that in is extremely unlikely, also. I need to establish tricks in clubs.

 

Win the ] Ace, play the Ace-King of clubs. If clubs have split 3-2 (indicated after trick 2), lead a club. If West shows out, overtrump if they ruff, otherwise ruff with the 2. If West follows, I ruff low. Then I win the lead, draw trumps ending in dummy, and play clubs making 12 tricks.

 

If clubs are 4-1, then it's time to start finessing some hearts.

 

This line will always make if clubs are 3-2 and diamonds split no worse than 3-2. It will also make if West has 2 clubs and 4 diamonds.

 

If I did the math right, this gives me about a 54% of making the contract.

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Win the ] Ace, play the Ace-King of clubs. If clubs have split 3-2 (indicated after trick 2), lead a club. If West shows out, overtrump if they ruff, otherwise ruff with the 2. If West follows, I ruff low. Then I win the lead, draw trumps ending in dummy, and play clubs making 12 tricks.

 

you're in grand, not 6

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Thanks - Hanoi's line is probably best in isolation. However, today it would fail because the minor suits were divided as follows;

 

W: Jxx Qxx

E: 9x xx

 

So it turns out that the grand could have been made by cashing KA of diamonds, ruff a diamond, ruff a spade back and claim (works whenever the hand with double clubs also has double diamonds, or whenever either opponent have exactly J9). This line seems inferior, but what about the inference that west didn't lead a trump - does this make it more likely that he has the jack, and if so, how much does it change the odds in favour of the winning line? Say against a strong opponent.

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