rasmuskold Posted October 14, 2012 Report Share Posted October 14, 2012 After some frisky bidding, you arrive in the not very good contract of 7 diamonds. LHO leads a small spade (3.,5.), and now you have to weigh your options. Obviously, you need clubs 3-2 (although lucky splits may see you through when the club queen is singleton), but how do you go about establishing the club suit? [hv=pc=n&s=sah2daqt74cak5432&n=sk432haqt3dk82cj6]133|200[/hv] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanoi5 Posted October 14, 2012 Report Share Posted October 14, 2012 Hm. Diamond A, Club AK and a club, if LHO follows ruff with the king and finesse for the jack back, and if discard you ruff, but if he ruffs with the 9...play him for J9x? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cargobeep Posted October 15, 2012 Report Share Posted October 15, 2012 I got 2 ♠ tricks, 1 ♥ trick, likely 5 ♦ tricks and 2 ♣ tricks. So I need to establish 3 additional tricks. Doing that in ♥ is extremely unlikely, ♠ also. I need to establish tricks in clubs. Win the ♠] Ace, play the Ace-King of clubs. If clubs have split 3-2 (indicated after trick 2), lead a club. If West shows out, overtrump if they ruff, otherwise ruff with the 2. If West follows, I ruff low. Then I win the lead, draw trumps ending in dummy, and play clubs making 12 tricks. If clubs are 4-1, then it's time to start finessing some hearts. This line will always make if clubs are 3-2 and diamonds split no worse than 3-2. It will also make if West has 2 clubs and 4 diamonds. If I did the math right, this gives me about a 54% of making the contract. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeh Posted October 15, 2012 Report Share Posted October 15, 2012 Win the ♠] Ace, play the Ace-King of clubs. If clubs have split 3-2 (indicated after trick 2), lead a club. If West shows out, overtrump if they ruff, otherwise ruff with the 2. If West follows, I ruff low. Then I win the lead, draw trumps ending in dummy, and play clubs making 12 tricks. you're in grand, not 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antrax Posted October 15, 2012 Report Share Posted October 15, 2012 Yeah, but 12 is a typo - insomuch as I was able to follow the line, it comes to 13 tricks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rasmuskold Posted October 15, 2012 Author Report Share Posted October 15, 2012 ...If West follows, I ruff low. Then I win the lead, draw trumps ending in dummy, and play clubs making 12 tricks... 'Winning the lead' kinda implies just making 12 tricks, doesn't it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antrax Posted October 15, 2012 Report Share Posted October 15, 2012 Oh, right. Thanks, missed that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rasmuskold Posted October 16, 2012 Author Report Share Posted October 16, 2012 Thanks - Hanoi's line is probably best in isolation. However, today it would fail because the minor suits were divided as follows; W: ♦Jxx ♣ Qxx E: ♦ 9x ♣ xx So it turns out that the grand could have been made by cashing KA of diamonds, ruff a diamond, ruff a spade back and claim (works whenever the hand with double clubs also has double diamonds, or whenever either opponent have exactly ♦J9). This line seems inferior, but what about the inference that west didn't lead a trump - does this make it more likely that he has the jack, and if so, how much does it change the odds in favour of the winning line? Say against a strong opponent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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