wank Posted October 3, 2012 Report Share Posted October 3, 2012 [hv=pc=n&s=shk762dajt3ckj652&d=n&v=e&b=9&a=p2np4hp4sdppp]133|200[/hv] in case more people accidentally walk into the expert forum whilst searching for the toilet, I should make it clear that the double is for take-out. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billw55 Posted October 3, 2012 Report Share Posted October 3, 2012 I might select a card at random on the theory that this can hardly be worse than the double I already made. Against 4♠ undoubled, I lead a small club, albeit with no particular confidence. By the way nice touch putting trump as the first poll option. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gszes Posted October 3, 2012 Report Share Posted October 3, 2012 i searched high and low for a trump to lead (looked at clubs 3 times) gave up and askedmyself why i would x when i had no strong idea on what the hey to lead>>>>> ANYWAY after much fidgeting and asking the director if it was too late to claim i hadaccidentally dropped the x card I pulled out the dia J hoping against hope dummy didnt hit withprecisely a singleton dia. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLOGIC Posted October 4, 2012 Report Share Posted October 4, 2012 club what else? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thiros Posted October 4, 2012 Report Share Posted October 4, 2012 I forced our side to the five level with this heaping pile, and now I am faced with this? Rather than succumb to the trick-one endplay, I steal a spade from the next table over, and put it out there, hoping I get caught and thrown out of the game so that I don't have to humiliate myself further. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cloa513 Posted October 6, 2012 Report Share Posted October 6, 2012 [hv=pc=n&s=shk762dajt3ckj652&d=n&v=e&b=9&a=p2np4hp4sdppp]133|200[/hv] in case more people accidentally walk into the expert forum whilst searching for the toilet, I should make it clear that the double is for take-out.Either a 10 of diamonds (misleading leads are better) or a low diamond- only needs partner to have the 9 or higher for it to be good. Its impossible for you to tell it might be a great double- partner might have one sure spade trick with 5 spades. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhilKing Posted October 6, 2012 Report Share Posted October 6, 2012 ♦J looks best by a distance. As long as dummy does not have a singleton, this should keep us in the hunt. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayin801 Posted October 6, 2012 Report Share Posted October 6, 2012 Process of elimination leaves a systemic low club? I don't think a heart is that bad since partner could still have the Q or we could just be setting up a slow trick in the suit when partner has the J but obviously partner's failure to X 4♥ leaves less appeal there. I would rather claim +1 for them than lead a diamond. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeh Posted October 6, 2012 Report Share Posted October 6, 2012 I think it close between a low heart and a low club. I choose the latter because (1) our longest suit is the one least likely to score a defensive trick when we go passive (2) when it would have scored such a trick, there is a chance partner has shortness and will eventually put us in with a diamond to score a ruff and (3) the heart lead strikes me as too aggressive (probably a subconscious recognition of 1 and 2). I've used this philosophy for so many years that at the table I'd probably lead the club with no real pause for thought. Edit: the diamond J/10 looks suicidal to me. I mean, it isn't at all impossible that we catch dummy with a stiff, combining blowing a trick with helping declarer develop an elopement. If I were forced at gunpoint to lead diamonds, I'd lead the Ace. After all, while partner has 4-5 trump, dummy has 6 (usually: we hope trump aren't 0=7=4=2) snd the diamond middle honour requires some very specific layouts. Save the newspaper plays for the bar, not the table. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhilKing Posted October 6, 2012 Report Share Posted October 6, 2012 Save the newspaper plays for the bar, not the table. This IS the bar - I am currently drinking a glass of Cahors. Anyway, I did a slightly inaccurate sim which eventually produced 23 hands that matched the facts. The contract was beatable 9 times. The diamond jack beat it 8 times, club 7, heart 5 and diamond ace 6. I have them in PBN file. Obviously the double worked horribly overall. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poky Posted October 7, 2012 Report Share Posted October 7, 2012 Input:- RHO: 20-21 balanced- LHO: 6+♠, <8 HCP (no redouble)- partner: 4+♠ Output:- Game made on H6 lead: 53.20% (532 of 1000)- Game made on DJ lead: 51.20% (512 of 1000)- Game made on DA lead: 57.20% (572 of 1000)- Game made on C2 lead: 54.50% (545 of 1000) ♦J best as expected, but interesting to notice heart lead is better than club lead. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhilKing Posted October 7, 2012 Report Share Posted October 7, 2012 Input:- RHO: 20-21 balanced- LHO: 6+♠, <8 HCP (no redouble)- partner: 4+♠ Output:- Game made on H6 lead: 53.20% (532 of 1000)- Game made on DJ lead: 51.20% (512 of 1000)- Game made on DA lead: 57.20% (572 of 1000)- Game made on C2 lead: 54.50% (545 of 1000) ♦J best as expected, but interesting to notice heart lead is better than club lead. TY. Glad my mini sim was not too bad. I was surprised a heart was worse than a club on my (human) sample. But I have my doubts on your methodology. Partner sometimes passes on a 3334 or similar bust and sometimes pulls with 4 weak spades and a five card suit, but you need human input to decide that. One of the occasions a club was the winner on my sample required no help - dummy held cAT8 and declarer cQ9, yet a club was still the only winning lead. Who can work out the hand how that is possible, I wonder? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poky Posted October 7, 2012 Report Share Posted October 7, 2012 Partner sometimes passes on a 3334 or similar bust and sometimes pulls with 4 weak spades and a five card suit, but you need human input to decide that.With 3(433) partner passes pretty much always, I would say, since his range is 0-4. No point in running into -800/-1100. Regarding the 4-5 hands, do you really think running out with, say, Txxx-Qxxxx-x-xxx is better than passing!? :blink: However, this cases are rare and do not change much the relations of percentages, maybe just a little bit the makeability of 4♠x. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhilKing Posted October 7, 2012 Report Share Posted October 7, 2012 With 3(433) partner passes pretty much always, I would say, since his range is 0-4. No point in running into -800/-1100. Regarding the 4-5 hands, do you really think running out with, say, Txxx-Qxxxx-x-xxx is better than passing!? :blink: However, this cases are rare and do not change much the relations of percentages, maybe just a little bit the makeability of 4♠x. On the hands I looked at, running was invariably correct, but that's partly because the doubler was a high card short I guess! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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