weak NT and huge minuses

[mycroft]

I keep being told (in ACBL-land) that "the weak NT goes for numbers". To which I point out that I get more numbers when they overcall than I go for (and conversely, giving -100 into -600 when they don't). But that discussion will never end, and I'm happy (I don't play weak NT for when I open 1NT anyway).

 

So, in our local team game, I open 1NT, and the auction proceeds:[hv=pc=n&s=sK96hkt84dak75c73&d=s&v=b&b=7&a=1n(12-14)d(penalty%20oriented)2c(scramble%20-%20no%20other%20call%20is%20right)2dp2sppp]133|200[/hv]Makes 140...

 

Win 12. Auction at the other table:[hv=pc=n&s=sk96hkt84dak75c73&d=s&v=b&b=7&a=1ddppp]133|200[/hv] East has ♦QJ9xxx and a few points, and declarer took the same 4 tricks we did.

 

I've never had *that* happen before...

[MickyB]

I don't play weak NT for when I open 1NT anyway

 

Wow.

 

Also, I suspect your weak NT would go for a lot more numbers if you displayed the same level of bidding judgement as your counterpart did at the other table!

[paulg]

I keep being told (in ACBL-land) that "the weak NT goes for numbers". To which I point out that I get more numbers when they overcall than I go for (and conversely, giving -100 into -600 when they don't).

I often say, about ACBL-land, that they have little or no idea how to defend the weak NT so it never goes for numbers; and when they do penalty double, it normally puts imps in our plus column. Given my limited ACBL experience is at the nationals, I expect this is a widespread issue.

[lalldonn]

I'm sure that hand should redouble or bid 1♥ after 1♦ X P P. What are the odds this is our best spot without any spot cards in diamonds, and with the AK that will help in any contract? Of course they might have gone for a number anywhere but maybe not also.

[CSGibson]

I love me some weak NT. If you are looking for positive swings and you don't think cardplay will do it alone, play a weak NT (ACBL centered). Even if opponents have discussed the first level of their defense, they often have not explored continuations in detail.

[JanM]

I'm too busy (or lazy) to find the reference for you, but I remember an old Edgar Kaplan article about this often happening - he and Kay changed to playing Weak NTs only non-vul and then he said they'd open 1m and go for a number when they were vul and had a weak NT hand :)

 

I keep being told (in ACBL-land) that "the weak NT goes for numbers". To which I point out that I get more numbers when they overcall than I go for (and conversely, giving -100 into -600 when they don't). But that discussion will never end, and I'm happy (I don't play weak NT for when I open 1NT anyway).

 

So, in our local team game, I open 1NT, and the auction proceeds:[hv=pc=n&s=sK96hkt84dak75c73&d=s&v=b&b=7&a=1n(12-14)d(penalty%20oriented)2c(scramble%20-%20no%20other%20call%20is%20right)2dp2sppp]133|200[/hv]Makes 140...

 

Win 12. Auction at the other table:[hv=pc=n&s=sk96hkt84dak75c73&d=s&v=b&b=7&a=1ddppp]133|200[/hv] East has ♦QJ9xxx and a few points, and declarer took the same 4 tricks we did.

 

I've never had *that* happen before...

[nigel_k]

I did a simulation on this a while ago with the following assumptions:

 

1. Your weak 1NT opening is in first or second position at any vulnerability. (you play 15-17 NT in 3rd/4th)

2. An unpassed opponent will double your 1NT if and only if he has 15 or more HCP.

3. A passed opponent will double your 1NT if he has a decent single suited hand (DONT).

4. If RHO has a double, LHO never bids in front of him.

5. When 1NT is doubled you will always run to a suit contract.

6. You always end up in two of your best fit. With good runout methods you can usually achieve this.

7. After you run, opponents always make the optimum double dummy decision, i.e. doubling you if and only if the penalty they can get exceeds what they could score in their own best contract.

8. The scoring is IMPS and the theoretical par contract is achieved at the other table

9. Double dummy play by both sides

 

Getting doubled and going for a number led to an average loss of 10 IMPs per 800 deals. I will take that any day given the enormous upside of the weak NT.

 

Certainly assumption 6 is favourable to the 1NT opener but I think the other assumptions more than counterbalance it.