Restricted choice...

[nielsfoged]

[hv=pc=n&s=st95hadkjt652c965&n=sakqh643daq8caq74&d=w&v=n&b=12&a=p2n3h5dp6dppp]266|200[/hv]

♥Q-3-2-A

♦2-3-Q-4

♥4-K-♦T-♥8

♦5-7-A-♥5

♦8-♥7-♦K-9

3x♠ where W follows ♠7-8-J and East follows 2-3-4

♥6-9-♦6-♥J

♣5-2-4-T

♠6!!-♦J-♣3-7

 

So before you play ♣ from 96 towards AQ in trick 12, this is what you know (♣J and K not included but divided between W and E):

[hv=pc=n&s=st95hadkjt652c965&w=sj87hqj8d973c?832&n=sakqh643daq8caq74&e=s6432hkt9752d4c?t&d=w&v=n&b=12&a=p2n3h5dp6dppp]399|300[/hv]

West play ♣8 on your 6 and has either ♣J or K besides that. East has ♥T and either ♣K or J besides that.

Do you play ♣Q or A from the Table?

 

/Niels

[gnasher]

Against good defenders, restricted choice isn't relevant. The J, 10 and 8 of clubs are all equals, and the fact that LHO had ♣32 is information that he didn't have to give us. Hence this is equivalent to asking how we'd play AQ32 opposite 654.

[nielsfoged]

Against good defenders, restricted choice isn't relevant. The J, 10 and 8 of clubs are all equals, and the fact that LHO had ♣32 is information that he didn't have to give us. Hence this is equivalent to asking how we'd play AQ32 opposite 654.

 

East either started with ♣KT (he must use T first time) or ♣JT (he will use T first time in approx 50% of the situations)!

 

However, when in on ♣T, why did East in trick 11 return the 4th ♠, which declarer didn't know he had, rather than the last ♥, he was sure to posses due to the bidding?

 

/Niels

[phil_20686]

Why didnt I play for a partial elimination? Surely that is better. When rho shows up with one diamond, I only need him to have less than five spades. I cash the spade winners and ruff the hearts, and then run the 9 of clubs as an endplay. Obviously awake defenders can beat me when the K is wrong, but most defenders are not so alert.

 

It will certainly pick up all the cases you are worried about above, or rho having KT or JT

[gnasher]

East either started with ♣KT (he must use T first time) or ♣JT (he will use T first time in approx 50% of the situations)!

Suppose that the club tricks went:

♣5-2-4-8

♣9-T-?

I could say "East either started with ♣K8 (he must use 8 first time) or ♣J8 (he will use 8 first time in approx 50% of the situations)."

 

Or if they went

♣5-J-4-2

♣9-T-?

I could say "East either started with ♣K2 (he must use 2 first time) or ♣82 (he will use 2 first time in approx 50% of the situations)."

 

Your logic would lead us to the absurd conclusion that K? offside is more likely than K??? onside. The reason it's wrong is that you're applying restricted choice to East's non-king cards but not to West's.

 

However, when in on ♣T, why did East in trick 11 return the 4th ♠, which declarer didn't know he had, rather than the last ♥, he was sure to posses due to the bidding?

Yes, that's another reason to take the finesse. It's nice when probabilities and human considerations lead us to the same conclusion.

[gszes]

i have to admit that i also think the partial elimination play is right but for a different reason.

 

trick 1 haeart A

trick 2 win dia in hand

trick 3 dia to dummy (discovering 31 break)

trick 4 ruff a heart small (if rho started with 8 hearts applaud their restraint)

trick 5/6/7 run 3 spades (if rho started with 6/7 hearts and 5+ spades do not buy a lottery ticket)

trick 8 once we see rho follow to 3 spades we know they have at least 6H 3S 1D seeing our

lack of club spots (and strong defense) the only holding where running the club 9 will work is if

rho started specifically with KJT or JT(x). This is very odds against since they can only have 3 clubs max.

I will try for a better solution and now (drum roll) lay down the

club A.

 

trick 9 ruff a heart high (sighing since lho follows it is still possible for rho to have 3 clubs. We are

not dead yet.

 

this is our end postion leading from our hand

 

void

void

A

Qxx

 

 

void

void

Kx

xx

 

trick 10 lead a club toward the Q

 

if lho rises with the K the hand is over

if the Q holds hand is over

if rho wins the K we still win if they only had kx and have to give us a ruff and sluff.

[phil_20686]

the only holding where running the club 9 will work is if

rho started specifically with KJT or JT(x). This is very odds against since they can only have 3 clubs max.

 

I have no doubt that your solution is superior double dummy. However, it has been my experience that running the nine or playing low to the seven works against almost all of the players I have ever played against. :)

[helene_t]

Why didnt I play for a partial elimination? Surely that is better. When rho shows up with one diamond, I only need him to have less than five spades. I cash the spade winners and ruff the hearts, and then run the 9 of clubs as an endplay. Obviously awake defenders can beat me when the K is wrong, but most defenders are not so alert.

Isn't it better to play a low spade to the 7? I would think LHO would be more likely to cover the 9 than the 5.

 

Anyway I would have played RHO for 7 hearts, if he has that I can throw him in with the third heart.

[phil_20686]

Isn't it better to play a low spade to the 7? I would think LHO would be more likely to cover the 9 than the 5.

 

Anyway I would have played RHO for 7 hearts, if he has that I can throw him in with the third heart.

 

I think that depends mostly on what clubs have been thrown away. :) It could be that the 8 is LHO's only small club, in which case low to the 7 will not be a winner. But yes, that is certainly better against weak players, but there is an element of double bluff in this game. Advanced players can be alert to trying to sneak one through, but associate the 9 with trying to wrongly entice a cover, and might play low under the 9 when they might go up on a low one.

 

Just seems like a guess how you would play the clubs, but I would think you could endplay rho against most defenders. You are right about rho having seven hearts though. Guess I never considered it because I saw the whole hand.

 

 

 

[gnasher]

Anyway I would have played RHO for 7 hearts, if he has that I can throw him in with the third heart.

In a partial elimination? West can just ruff the third heart and lead a club through dummy.

[nielsfoged]

This discussion has taken an interesting and relevant twist compared to my original purpose with it, and I appreciate you comments and agree with you, that Declarer might have chosen one or more superior lines of play by using partial elimination and end play.

 

However, I was a rather passive defender in West attending the described Declarer play. My impression was that if East holds 6/T/-/K, when in on ♣T, he should return ♥T expecting declarer to finess in ♣, whereas if holding 6/T/-/J in the end position, he should return ♠6, which for sure exposes his restricted choise situation in ♣, and may tempt declarer to raise with ♣A. I would be grateful, if you would comment on that aspect, too!

 

One weakness in my analysis (you may find more!) is that when East plays ♥T, Declarer will (almost?) know that East has ♠6 anyway, since West effortlessly throws ♣3 and not the last ♠ in that trick!

 

/Niels