lalldonn Posted November 1, 2012 Report Share Posted November 1, 2012 300.4 is just the mean... The mode (the most likely event) looks to be about 331 which would be a real drubbing... (This number could be depressed a bit if/when Obama loses PA)I noticed that too, 331 was at 17%. None of Romney's winning electoral totals had higher than a 3% chance of occurring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtK78 Posted November 1, 2012 Report Share Posted November 1, 2012 I noticed that too, 331 was at 17%. None of Romney's winning electoral totals had higher than a 3% chance of occurring.I suspect that 331 would require that Obama wins Florida. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luke warm Posted November 1, 2012 Report Share Posted November 1, 2012 i just wanna see VA go romney by 5+%, then i'll know if i should stay up or not... if less, or even if he loses, it's night night time for me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtK78 Posted November 1, 2012 Report Share Posted November 1, 2012 i just wanna see VA go romney by 5+%, then i'll know if i should stay up or not... if less, or even if he loses, it's night night time for meNate Silver has Obama's chances of winning Virginia at 61%. The three most recent Virginia polls (Tuesday and Wednesday) have Obama ahead in Virginia by 2% or 3%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PassedOut Posted November 1, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 1, 2012 i just wanna see VA go romney by 5+%, then i'll know if i should stay up or not... if less, or even if he loses, it's night night time for meI know that I'll stay up until it's called either way (unless it's Bush/Gore all over again). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luke warm Posted November 1, 2012 Report Share Posted November 1, 2012 i figure if romney wins VA by 5+, it'll be a landslide... if he loses, he'll have to do something else the next 4 years... if he wins by 2 or 3, it's too tight for me to stay up and miss out on my much needed sleep Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
y66 Posted November 2, 2012 Report Share Posted November 2, 2012 Bloomberg Endorses Obama, Citing Climate Change ♥ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vampyr Posted November 2, 2012 Report Share Posted November 2, 2012 i figure if romney wins VA by 5+, it'll be a landslide... if he loses, he'll have to do something else the next 4 years... if he wins by 2 or 3, it's too tight for me to stay up and miss out on my much needed sleep Too tight to stay up? That is an odd idea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bbradley62 Posted November 2, 2012 Report Share Posted November 2, 2012 Too tight to stay up? That is an odd idea.Just like 2000 was too tight to stay up... We may not know the result on Tuesday... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdano Posted November 2, 2012 Report Share Posted November 2, 2012 Matt Yglesias @mattyglesiasAs I understand it, Obama is either ahead or behind depending on whether the polls are accurate or not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luke warm Posted November 2, 2012 Report Share Posted November 2, 2012 Too tight to stay up? That is an odd idea.if he wins VA by 2%, ohio won't come in for 3 weeks... just how long do you want me to stay up? :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtK78 Posted November 2, 2012 Report Share Posted November 2, 2012 Nate Silver updated his election odds late last night. Obama now has an 80.9% chance of winning. His chance of winning Ohio has increased to 80%, and his chance of winning Virginia is up to 66%. He even has a 45% chance of winning Florida. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrothgar Posted November 2, 2012 Report Share Posted November 2, 2012 Just like 2000 was too tight to stay up... We may not know the result on Tuesday... I'm taking Wednesday off work... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PassedOut Posted November 2, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 2, 2012 Nate Silver updated his election odds late last night. Obama now has an 80.9% chance of winning.That's still one chance in five for Romney, so very possible even now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenberg Posted November 2, 2012 Report Share Posted November 2, 2012 Somehow the question of who will be president for the next four years has taken a back seat to whether Nate Silver is a good forecaster. Probabilistic forecasting is difficult to evaluate, and surely neither Silver nor his model should be judged on the basis of one result. But of course Silver does now and has before predicted the results in a state by state way and that gives us far more data to look at. There is the old joke that a weatherman who lives in an area that has rain on 30% of the days could simply predict a 30% chance of rain everyday and guess what, we would find that indeed it has rained on 30% of the days that he had said the chance of rain is 30%. Whatta guy. It's easier to compare forecasters than to assign a specific rating to any one by himself. If A says that the chance of rain is 30% and B says that it is 50% you take the average, 40%. Then you give odds of 60 (no rain) to 40(rain) and have them each (happily I presume) place a bet at these odds, either money or rating points, You watch over a period of item and see who rakes in the cash., This could be applied if there was another person publishing odds on each of the states, and the results could be compared. It's more difficult to compare two prognosticators if one is posting odds on the outcome and another is publishing polling results. If not apples and oranges, it is at least winesaps and galas. Anyway, I suppose Obama is going to win. If I were inclined to do some political work, it would be in support of democratic reps and sens. We really cannot afford four more years of paralysis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike777 Posted November 2, 2012 Report Share Posted November 2, 2012 "An automatic recount can’t happen until Nov. 27, Husted said. An automatic recount is triggered in Ohio when the result margin is less than 0.25%, or about 14,000 votes in an election in which 5.6 million votes are cast (5.7 million Ohioans voted in 2008)." We might not know the results until December. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenberg Posted November 2, 2012 Report Share Posted November 2, 2012 "An automatic recount can't happen until Nov. 27, Husted said. An automatic recount is triggered in Ohio when the result margin is less than 0.25%, or about 14,000 votes in an election in which 5.6 million votes are cast (5.7 million Ohioans voted in 2008)." We might not know the results until December. :) I plan on staying up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vampyr Posted November 2, 2012 Report Share Posted November 2, 2012 I plan on staying up. Me too, and this will be very late indeed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike777 Posted November 2, 2012 Report Share Posted November 2, 2012 getting close to 100million bucks in ads in NC I am flooded with phone calls every day and I have a private unlisted number and with mailings... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luke warm Posted November 2, 2012 Report Share Posted November 2, 2012 getting close to 100million bucks in ads in NC I am flooded with phone calls every day and I have a private unlisted number and with mailings...whose ads, mainly? i'd heard obama had pulled out of nc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PassedOut Posted November 2, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 2, 2012 this one is optimistic even by my standards... the one troubling aspect for me is obama's approval rating... as long as it is as high as it is, i don't think a blowout is possibleNote that the prediction in your link employs the old saw that 80% of the undecideds vote against the incumbent. But that's not true: The Simple Case for Saying Obama Is the Favorite The FiveThirtyEight forecast explicitly accounts for the possibility that the polls are biased toward Mr. Obama — but it also accounts for the chance that the polls could be systematically biased against him. Others argue that undecided voters tend to break against the incumbent, in this case Mr. Obama. But this has also not really been true in recent elections. In some states, also, Mr. Obama is at 50 percent of the vote in the polling average, or close to it, meaning that he wouldn’t need very many undecided voters to win. A third argument is that Mr. Romney has the momentum in the polls: whether or not he would win an election today, the argument goes, he is on a favorable trajectory that will allow him to win on Tuesday. This may be the worst of the arguments, in my view. It is contradicted by the evidence, simply put.That's not to say that Romney has no chance to win -- he surely does. But we can pretty much discard the landslide predictions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winstonm Posted November 2, 2012 Report Share Posted November 2, 2012 From the NYT article PassedOut linked: To argue that Mr. Romney is ahead, or that the election is a “tossup,” requires that you disbelieve the polls, or that you engage in some complicated interpretation of them. It seems the author substantiates my claims that there are those who disregard data in order to cling to a narrative belief system. When data and narrative are at odds, though, that system of belief becomes quite a burden to explain rationally. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luke warm Posted November 2, 2012 Report Share Posted November 2, 2012 from the atlantic Colorado: Republicans, 38-35. Most Coloradans vote early, so this will go GOP. Florida: Democrats, 43-41. Republicans “share of the early vote … is 5 points higher than their share of voter registration.” Democrats will lose the state. Iowa: Democrats, 43-32. But back in late September, Democrats had a whopping 44 point lead. North Carolina: Democrats, 48-32. But in 2008, Democrats barely carried the state and had a 21 point lead. So Republicans will win it. Nevada: Democrats, 44-38. While Ball says Democrats are winning the state, this margin isn’t large enough for a big Obama win – not when everyone expects election day itself to go strong for Romney. She refuses to call Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or Wisconsin. And New Hampshire is not a real early voting state. from politico But by one important yardstick – early voting – the GOP is showing notable improvement in key battleground states. According to data compiled by the United States Election Project and POLITICO, in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada and North Carolina, Republicans are running several points ahead of their 2008 pace, while Democrats are running several points behind, in percentage of early votes cast. Those five are the only swing states that have party registration or offer the statistical breakdowns that enable the comparison. and concerning PA, from the nyt But there is a tangible sense — seen in Romney yard signs on the expansive lawns of homes in the well-heeled suburbs, and heard in the excited voices of Republican mothers who make phone calls to voters in their spare time — that the race is tilting toward Mr. Romney. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PassedOut Posted November 2, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 2, 2012 From It seems the author substantiates my claims that there are those who disregard data in order to cling to a narrative belief system. When data and narrative are at odds, though, that system of belief becomes quite a burden to explain rationally.I suppose it could be that the Romney cheerleaders expect many "undecideds" to vote against Obama for reasons they feel ashamed to admit to pollsters... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luke warm Posted November 2, 2012 Report Share Posted November 2, 2012 It seems the author substantiates my claims that there are those who disregard data in order to cling to a narrative belief system. When data and narrative are at odds, though, that system of belief becomes quite a burden to explain rationally.lolol... sorta reminds me of you back in your 9/11 truther days... I suppose it could be that the Romney cheerleaders expect many "undecideds" to vote against Obama for reasons they feel ashamed to admit to pollsters...yeah, a lot of people are simply ashamed to say they were wrong... we do know that romney has a huge lead in independents, as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.