luke warm Posted October 31, 2012 Report Share Posted October 31, 2012 And... :Pi don't want his moustach, but if he gives me 40:1 and 30:1 i'd like a shot at some of his money... or yours, for that matter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lalldonn Posted October 31, 2012 Report Share Posted October 31, 2012 Nate has Obama up to 77.4% to win, his highest since October 7. 299-239 in electoral votes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luke warm Posted October 31, 2012 Report Share Posted October 31, 2012 i realize this is from the gop site but it's still pretty amazing, if true In 2008 the GOP edged the Democrats by just 2% in absentee returns. As of today the GOP’s lead is 18.8% — a 16.9% bump in a state Obama won by 10% in 2008. Republicans have turned in 55.2% of the absentee ballots to date while the Democrats have returned just 36.4%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenberg Posted October 31, 2012 Report Share Posted October 31, 2012 kenberg, watching might give you a little insight into why questions are sometimes (deliberately) badly drawn, esepcially during an election campaign. I think it was in the old British comedy I'm All Right Jack where an M.P. was interviewed about Parliament's plans for dealing with a paralyzing strike. His reply was something like "We will take immediate and forceful action, and you can rest assured that we will not interfere'. The Brits have a knack for this sort of humor. Yes, I like the clip. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billw55 Posted October 31, 2012 Report Share Posted October 31, 2012 Found an interesting voter quiz here. Seems more in depth than most such quizzes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelandakh Posted October 31, 2012 Report Share Posted October 31, 2012 Found an interesting voter quiz here.Apparently I side 98% with Jill Stein, whoever she might be. And I am also 96% Dem/Green but only 2% Rep. I find those results a little surprising considering I am pretty much a classical Liberal in the European sense. The did not ask any questions about business and the like though which would likely have made a difference. Between Obama and Romney it gives 82% Obama and 3% Romney - is the site run by a Democrat source perchance? Besides, was this based on Romney's line during the Republican nomination campaign or during the Presidential campaign? They are, after all, quite different audiences. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luke warm Posted October 31, 2012 Report Share Posted October 31, 2012 colorado early voting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billw55 Posted October 31, 2012 Report Share Posted October 31, 2012 is the site run by a Democrat source perchance? Beats me. For kicks though, I went through it again and answered very conservatively, and got 96% Romney. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PassedOut Posted October 31, 2012 Author Report Share Posted October 31, 2012 Nate Silver has an interesting piece today assessing why likely voters polled by state show a 1.9% lead for Obama while the national polls show a dead heat: What State Polls Suggest About the National Popular Vote Suppose, for example, that you take the consensus forecast in each state. (By “consensus” I just mean: the average of the different forecasts.) Then you weigh it based on what each state’s share of the overall turnout was in 2008, in order to produce an estimate of the national popular vote. Do the math, and you’ll find that this implies that Mr. Obama leads nationally by 1.9 percentage points — by no means a safe advantage, but still a better result for him than what the national polls suggest. What if turnout doesn’t look like it did in 2008? Instead, what if the share of the votes that each state contributed was the same as in 2004, a better Republican year? That doesn’t help to break the discord between state and national polls, unfortunately. Mr. Obama would lead by two percentage points in the consensus forecast weighing the states by their 2004 turnout. Or we can weigh the states by their turnout in 2010, a very good Republican year. But that doesn’t help, either: instead, Mr. Obama leads by 2.1 percentage points based on this method.So about a 2% lead with almost a week to go. But of course the state polls could be way off. We'll know soon enough... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luke warm Posted October 31, 2012 Report Share Posted October 31, 2012 this one is optimistic even by my standards... the one troubling aspect for me is obama's approval rating... as long as it is as high as it is, i don't think a blowout is possible Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PassedOut Posted October 31, 2012 Author Report Share Posted October 31, 2012 this one is optimistic even by my standards... the one troubling aspect for me is obama's approval rating... as long as it is as high as it is, i don't think a blowout is possibleCertainly not when you take into account all of the voter fraud in the works... :P Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luke warm Posted October 31, 2012 Report Share Posted October 31, 2012 Certainly not when you take into account all of the voter fraud in the works... :Ptrue... here's another good one from bozo the VP i almost forgot today was halloween until someone tweeted that obama was dressing up as the president... maybe we can teach our kids about redistribution if we take their candy and give it to others Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrothgar Posted October 31, 2012 Report Share Posted October 31, 2012 maybe we can teach our kids about redistribution if we take their candy and give it to others Funny, I thought that forcible redistribution under threat of violence was the raison d'être of Halloween(Well, that and slutty cat costumes) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lalldonn Posted October 31, 2012 Report Share Posted October 31, 2012 i realize this is from the gop site but it's still pretty amazing, if trueAlmost everything on the several gop sites I have visited recently are pretty amazing if true. Most things in the bible and on Criminal Minds as well, oh and I can't forget Game of Thrones... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luke warm Posted October 31, 2012 Report Share Posted October 31, 2012 (Well, that and slutty cat costumes)now we're talking Almost everything on the several gop sites I have visited recently are pretty amazing if true. Most things in the bible and on Criminal Minds as well, oh and I can't forget Game of Thrones...yep, they can't all be right... and i can't wait till april, season 3 coming up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtK78 Posted October 31, 2012 Report Share Posted October 31, 2012 I would guess that Republicans nationwide are having hissy fits watching Governor Christie and President Obama together in New Jersey today going over the storm damage. Governor Christie can hardly say enough good things about the way President Obama has been heading the federal effort to help the states hit by Sandy. And President Obama is holding up Governor Christie as an example of a leader who puts his state's interests first and everything else somewhere else. As a New Jersey resident, it is nice to see our leaders actually leading. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BunnyGo Posted November 1, 2012 Report Share Posted November 1, 2012 Found an interesting voter quiz here. Seems more in depth than most such quizzes. It seemed in depth, but when I checked their comparisons they seemed a bit off. For example: Iran I apparently sided with Romney, but it only gave Romney credit for " Isolate through trade embargoes" and didn't give Obama credit for that (despite it being what he's doing) nor for my answer which was "strategically eliminate nuclear capabilities" which depending on definition is what Israel and US are doing with computer viruses (to a small extent). Or "Should the US end the war in Afghanistan?' I said "yes" (and based on my interpretation of Obama and Romney in the debate, they said "yes" too) but only the third party candidates are credited with that answer. mostly it seemed reasonable, and interesting, but I did not understand the details of some of their information. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BunnyGo Posted November 1, 2012 Report Share Posted November 1, 2012 They are also missing Angus King (the presumptive winner) from the senate race here in Maine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flem72 Posted November 1, 2012 Report Share Posted November 1, 2012 I understand taht the SOS in Ohio sent absentee ballots to every registered voter, and that accurately correllating the poll votes with the absentee votes may take a week or so. Crap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vampyr Posted November 1, 2012 Report Share Posted November 1, 2012 Governor Christie can hardly say enough good things about the way President Obama has been heading the federal effort to help the states hit by Sandy. And President Obama is holding up Governor Christie as an example of a leader who puts his state's interests first and everything else somewhere else. Class. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdano Posted November 1, 2012 Report Share Posted November 1, 2012 Found an interesting voter quiz here.I wonder how Romney would score if he took this quiz today. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lalldonn Posted November 1, 2012 Report Share Posted November 1, 2012 Not to keep spamming with Nate updates, but Obama now at 300.4 electoral votes and 79% chance of winning. Yee hah. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrothgar Posted November 1, 2012 Report Share Posted November 1, 2012 Not to keep spamming with Nate updates, but Obama now at 300.4 electoral votes and 79% chance of winning. Yee hah. 300.4 is just the mean... The mode (the most likely event) looks to be about 331 which would be a real drubbing... (This number could be depressed a bit if/when Obama loses PA) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike777 Posted November 1, 2012 Report Share Posted November 1, 2012 I get the impression that Republicans are assuming/hoping for a self identified base turnout ratio in the swing states closer to the 2004 election rather than the 2008 election. It seems that even Rowe and Morris concede the republicans dont have a chance with anything close to the 2008 swing state election ratios. http://www.gallup.com/poll/158399/2012-electorate-looks-like-2008.aspx It looks like they assume something such as this: Party--2004---2008----2012 DEM 37%----39%------35% REP 39%-----29%------36% --- 538 has the President up by about 2% in the popular vote with 5 days to go ",,,if Mr. Romney wins the popular vote by more than about two percentage points, for example, he’ll be very likely to cobble together a winning electoral map, somehow and some way...." Intrade has this as a 24.5% chance as of today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bbradley62 Posted November 1, 2012 Report Share Posted November 1, 2012 I wonder how Romney would score if he took this quiz today.And then again tomorrow :blink: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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