phil_20686 Posted November 7, 2012 Report Share Posted November 7, 2012 BBC calling indiana 60-40 to mitt romney. Also Kentucky 70-30 to romney, vermont to obama . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_20686 Posted November 7, 2012 Report Share Posted November 7, 2012 Virginia 49-49 according to a CNN exit poll. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrothgar Posted November 7, 2012 Report Share Posted November 7, 2012 Interesting article for the poll watchers http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/109674/election-day-guide most of the big eastern battleground states close at 7 and 7:30 p.m., be prepared for Obama to take an early lead in Ohio, Florida, and even North Carolina, where early votes will probably represent a disproportionate share of initial returns. As Election Day ballots are tabulated, Romney will begin to make inroads and perhaps ultimately overcome Obama’s advantage in early votes. Conversely, expect Romney to open up a big early lead in Virginia, where rural, Republican counties in western Virginia report quickly. Even if Obama ultimately wins Virginia by a modest margin, Romney will likely lead the state for most of the night. Obama won Virginia by 6 points in 2008, but it wasn’t called until more than 90 percent of precincts were reported because Democratic-leaning counties take so much longer to report. In 2008, Obama won the final 600,000 votes by a 170,000 vote margin. For that same reason, Senator Jim Webb didn’t take a lead until 98 percent of precincts reported in the closely contested 2006 midterm election. As votes are counted across the Republican-leaning eastern two-thirds of the country, Romney is likely to take the lead in the national popular vote, perhaps even a large one. If Obama wins the popular vote, his margin of victory will come from the populous West Coast states and big cities that don’t report until later. In the case of the West Coast, mail-in balloting ensures that full results aren’t in for days or weeks. It is entirely conceivable that Obama could give a victory speech in Chicago while trailing in the popular vote, only to take the lead over the coming hours or even days in an extremely close race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aberlour10 Posted November 7, 2012 Report Share Posted November 7, 2012 Alea iacta est! Anyway, I am going to bed now and I can only hope when I wake up, we are not at the start of The Cold War Ver. 2.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrothgar Posted November 7, 2012 Report Share Posted November 7, 2012 then i guess things i've been reading have been wrong... you know, greece, spain, ireland, even france... i wasn't aware that they were so financially better off than we are As I recall, Greece's population is about 5% of the EU. Its ridiculous to judge an entire continent by one of its most backwards states...It would be like judging the US based on Mississippi or Louisiana. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_20686 Posted November 7, 2012 Report Share Posted November 7, 2012 Turnout in Virginia was so high that a polling station ran out of ballots at 2pm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwar0123 Posted November 7, 2012 Report Share Posted November 7, 2012 Turnout in Virginia was so high that a polling station ran out of ballots at 2pm.You staying up for much of this? I see it is past midnight where you are :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vampyr Posted November 7, 2012 Report Share Posted November 7, 2012 (if you believe strongly in free will you are likely to give little weight to the argument that having lethal weapons lying around increases the chance of arguments getting out of hand). I think you have said the opposite of what you were trying to say. If you believe in some sort of predetermination, whether you get shot or not has long ago been decided, so it doesn't matter if there are guns around; what will happen will happen one way or another. If on the other hand you believe in free will, you realise that if there are "lethal weapons lying around", someone could make a hasty decision to pick one up and use it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwar0123 Posted November 7, 2012 Report Share Posted November 7, 2012 I think you have said the opposite of what you were trying to say. If you believe in some sort of predetermination, whether you get shot or not has long ago been decided, so it doesn't matter if there are guns around; what will happen will happen one way or another. If on the other hand you believe in free will, you realise that if there are "lethal weapons lying around", someone could make a hasty decision to pick one up and use it. Actually the argument works on both ends. If you believe strongly in predetermination, than nothing matters. At all. If you believe strongly in free will, than you believe people should be able to make all the stupid choices they want and face the consequences as they come. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimG Posted November 7, 2012 Report Share Posted November 7, 2012 So calling Obama a Muslim is supposed to be insulting? I don't have any respect for religion, but still I think this is sick. I'm sorry if I'm repeating myself, but a few days ago someone told me they weren't voting for Obama because they thought he was "on their side" and by "their" this person meant "Muslims". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_20686 Posted November 7, 2012 Report Share Posted November 7, 2012 I think you have said the opposite of what you were trying to say. If you believe in some sort of predetermination, whether you get shot or not has long ago been decided, so it doesn't matter if there are guns around; what will happen will happen one way or another. If on the other hand you believe in free will, you realise that if there are "lethal weapons lying around", someone could make a hasty decision to pick one up and use it. No, if you believe strongly in free will you are likely to parse it as "Man A decides to kill man B, then man A looks for way to kill man B", ergo: guns don't kill people, people kill people. If you believe that peoples decisions are strongly shaped by environmental factors you might instead think that the mere fact of owning a gun makes you more likely to think using it is an option in any given situation. Of course, these are generalisations, but the correlation between religion and guns in the evangelical regions of the US is not a coincidence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimG Posted November 7, 2012 Report Share Posted November 7, 2012 of course not... we have a constitutional amendment on thatSlavery was OK before there was a Constitutional Amendment prohibiting it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vampyr Posted November 7, 2012 Report Share Posted November 7, 2012 No, if you believe strongly in free will you are likely to parse it as "Man A decides to kill man B, then man A looks for way to kill man B", ergo: guns don't kill people, people kill people. Well, OK, but having a gun makes it a lot easier. Of course, these are generalisations, but the correlation between religion and guns in the evangelical regions of the US is not a coincidence.Maybe, maybe not. Bible-belt dwellers are much more likely to live in areas where hunting is popular. I do not think that there is anything particularly Christian about gun ownership. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_20686 Posted November 7, 2012 Report Share Posted November 7, 2012 Actually the argument works on both ends. If you believe strongly in predetermination, than nothing matters. At all. If you believe strongly in free will, than you believe people should be able to make all the stupid choices they want and face the consequences as they come. So by "believe strongly in free will" I meant, "believe strongly that the decisions that you make are actually choices", as opposed to being basically determined by environmental factors. Societal attitudes to this question have moved a long way. in the 1900's it was believed that most character traits were essentially completely inherited, and that you could therefore alleviate criminal tendencies through eugenics. By 1970 most of the intellectual left believed in the blank slate hypothesis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_20686 Posted November 7, 2012 Report Share Posted November 7, 2012 (1)Well, OK, but having a gun makes it a lot easier. (2)Maybe, maybe not. Bible-belt dwellers are much more likely to live in areas where hunting is popular. I do not think that there is anything particularly Christian about gun ownership. (1) I think the rates of pre-meditated murder is the same pretty much everywhere. If you decide to kill someone in cold blood there are a lot of everyday objects that make perfectly serviceable weapons. (2) So we are not talking about gun ownership, so much as attitudes to gun control. Owning a hunting rifle does not seem to be strongly correlated with whether you think rocket launchers should be legal....... I mean the gun associations in the US once held a protest over legislation requiring a waiting period for buying a military grade assault rifle. We are talking about whether you think assault weapons and sub machine guns should be legal, not hunting rifles or shot guns. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_20686 Posted November 7, 2012 Report Share Posted November 7, 2012 So both ohio and virginia are classed as "leaning republican" with 60-40 to romney, but only a few % of precincts are in. Ok so now a few more precincts are in and ohio now 50-50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrothgar Posted November 7, 2012 Report Share Posted November 7, 2012 So both ohio and virginia are classed as "leaning republican" with 60-40 to romney, but only a few % of precincts are in. Ok so now a few more precincts are in and ohio now 50-50 Exit polls from Ohio are suggesting 51-48 for Obama Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_20686 Posted November 7, 2012 Report Share Posted November 7, 2012 Exit polls from Ohio are suggesting 51-48 for Obama there are now about a million votes in in both ohio and virginia, and it is now obama in ohio and romney in virgnina, both by margins of about 15%. Anyone know roughly how many votes we are expecting in these states? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrothgar Posted November 7, 2012 Report Share Posted November 7, 2012 there are now about a million votes in in both ohio and virginia, and it is now obama in ohio and romney in virgnina, both by margins of about 15%. Anyone know roughly how many votes we are expecting in these states? Please look at my earlier post about early returns in Ohio... The pattern of returns varies enormously over time. You can't use early margins to predict much or anything... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickyB Posted November 7, 2012 Report Share Posted November 7, 2012 Indeed. Nate is looking at results more closely, says Florida basically tied, sure he'll comment on other states shortly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhilKing Posted November 7, 2012 Report Share Posted November 7, 2012 Obama is 1.13 on Betfair. Does that mean I can go to bed? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
y66 Posted November 7, 2012 Report Share Posted November 7, 2012 Virginia is extremely heterogeneous. North and south of the Rappahannock River are 2 different worlds with most of the north leaning toward Obama and most of the south leaning toward Romney. So, it depends a lot on where the early #s are coming from. I will be pleasantly surprised if Obama pulls off another win here as he did in 2008 and disappointed but not surprised if Tim Kaine (Dem) loses the senate race to George Allen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickyB Posted November 7, 2012 Report Share Posted November 7, 2012 Obama is 1.13 on Betfair. Does that mean I can go to bed? Romney has even collapsed on Intrade now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhilKing Posted November 7, 2012 Report Share Posted November 7, 2012 1.08 now - I'm nearly ready to call it. The election pundits are still trying to drag it out, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vampyr Posted November 7, 2012 Report Share Posted November 7, 2012 (1) I think the rates of pre-meditated murder is the same pretty much everywhere. If you decide to kill someone in cold blood there are a lot of everyday objects that make perfectly serviceable weapons. OK, whatever. I really suspect that the Colorado Batman murderer would have been less successful if he'd had a paperweight instead of guns, but what do I know. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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