PassedOut Posted October 29, 2012 Author Report Share Posted October 29, 2012 Interesting that considering all that has transpired in the last five months, the US presidential election stands just where it did in early June: Oct. 28 - In Swing States, a Predictable Election? When we introduced this year’s FiveThirtyEight forecast model on June 7, the closest states were Colorado, Ohio and Virginia, each of which slightly favored Mr. Obama. In Florida and North Carolina, meanwhile, we had Mitt Romney listed as a modest favorite. Pretty much the same could be said about the race today. In fact, our projected leader in all 50 states is the same as it was at our launch of the forecast in June.At least the TV stations and sign printers have made good money for awhile... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenberg Posted October 29, 2012 Report Share Posted October 29, 2012 Good. Silver lists the predictions for the 18 states where it is expected to be close or fairly close. Assume (?) we agree that the other states are settled enough so that no one gets applause for predicting them. Here is where the action is. Could those who are skeptical of his predictions suggest the states, or links to other predictions suggesting states, where the predictions are different? I got the horse right here his name is Paul Revere, and there's this guy who says if the weather's clear.... We shall see. I'll hold the bets. For a small fee. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luke warm Posted October 29, 2012 Report Share Posted October 29, 2012 We shall see. I'll hold the bets. For a small fee.i was offered odds on 2 states, just waiting to hear from him... something tells me he bit off more than he wanted to, tho... and i'd be glad to let you hold the money for a 10% fee... sounds reasonable Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thiros Posted October 29, 2012 Report Share Posted October 29, 2012 my point....rerun----------- but fwiw I am shocked by ND win wow...... FL loses...ND ..OK lose...wow.... Who the heck thinks Irish can win in 2012? -- Florida was playing over their heads all year. Georgia has them beat in the talent department, they just found it in themselves to get it together and assert themselves as the better team. ND's win over Oklahoma surprised me as well, but Oklahoma struggled so mightily with UTEP that by now we should realize that they just aren't all that great. ND certainly has their best team in a very long time but I'm still skeptical that they can complete a perfect regular season. They still have to travel to USC, who is still very capable of rising to the occasion and beating them. Even if ND is undefeated at selection time, the pool of title game candidates is crowded and they have Alabama and Oregon (to say nothing of a couple of others) to worry about. Honestly, they should be thrilled if they end up with a victory in a BCS bowl (other than the national championship game). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdano Posted October 30, 2012 Report Share Posted October 30, 2012 Anyway, we shall soon see. If Nate Silver's predictions come in on the money in a large number of states as Obama sails to re-election with approximately the electoral count Silver envisions, Nate's future will be bright. As for me, I am not betting the house on the results. I am voting for Obama. I think my wife is. I'm not prepared to say what anyone else is doing.You are writing as if Nate Silver had no track record. He got into politics during the 2008 primaries, having instant huge success when he accurately predicted Obama-Clinton primary results that the majority of polls missed by a lot. (Moreover, his methodology showed that the race was very stable, without any of the "momentum" shifts that the press reported: a demographic regression analysis predicted each state's result with small error.)He then was very accurate in his 2008 presidential election predictions, getting 49/50 states right, and I think all Senate races. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenberg Posted October 30, 2012 Report Share Posted October 30, 2012 You are writing as if Nate Silver had no track record. He got into politics during the 2008 primaries, having instant huge success when he accurately predicted Obama-Clinton primary results that the majority of polls missed by a lot. (Moreover, his methodology showed that the race was very stable, without any of the "momentum" shifts that the press reported: a demographic regression analysis predicted each state's result with small error.)He then was very accurate in his 2008 presidential election predictions, getting 49/50 states right, and I think all Senate races. Yes, I am aware of that. We shall see if he repeats. Success is a good predictor of success. So perhaps he will. But in the most practical of terms, I do not regard this success as so impressive that I am prepared to bet money on his advice. But perhaps I am cautious. I miss out on opportunities,. I also miss out on negative opportunities. I only suggest that we identify a prominent forecaster who has had a decent, though less spectacular, record in the past, see what he says, and await the results to see who does better. Really, I see this as supportive of Silver. If someone wants to argue that Silver is way off, I invite a nomination for someone who can do a better job of state by state forecasting. Then we will see. I would expect Silver to welcome the challenge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billw55 Posted October 30, 2012 Report Share Posted October 30, 2012 If Silver has another good showing, I suspect he will then be inundated with attempts to buy/influence him in future elections (if this is not already happening). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrothgar Posted October 30, 2012 Report Share Posted October 30, 2012 If Silver has another good showing, I suspect he will then be inundated with attempts to buy/influence him in future elections (if this is not already happening). Part of the reason that folks value Silver's analysis is the transparency of the system that he has in place. Silver posted his methodology long before this election cycle started. Since then, the main thing that he has been doing is describing the results and pointing out what he views as flaws in the techniques that other people are using. I'm not saying that he can't be bought, however, I suspect that this would not be as valuable as one might think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billw55 Posted October 30, 2012 Report Share Posted October 30, 2012 Part of the reason that folks value Silver's analysis is the transparency of the system that he has in place. Silver posted his methodology long before this election cycle started. Since then, the main thing that he has been doing is describing the results and pointing out what he views as flaws in the techniques that other people are using. I'm not saying that he can't be bought, however, I suspect that this would not be as valuable as one might think.Agree all around. But I doubt that any of that will stop people from trying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BunnyGo Posted October 30, 2012 Report Share Posted October 30, 2012 i was offered odds on 2 states, just waiting to hear from him... something tells me he bit off more than he wanted to, tho... and i'd be glad to let you hold the money for a 10% fee... sounds reasonable I already sent you a PM, since I didn't want to distract the whole thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
y66 Posted October 30, 2012 Report Share Posted October 30, 2012 As to the war on objectivity, if someone somewhere has ideas about how to get people to stop the name calling, it would be good to hear from them. I don't have any good ideas to get other people to stop the name calling. As for myself, I'm going to just cut it out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luke warm Posted October 30, 2012 Report Share Posted October 30, 2012 gallup is showing romney ahead 52-46 in the early voting, something nobody else is showing... and rasmussen has him projected to win 279 electoral votes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwar0123 Posted October 30, 2012 Report Share Posted October 30, 2012 gallup is showing romney ahead 52-46 in the early voting, something nobody else is showing... and rasmussen has him projected to win 279 electoral votesSo I guess that means the odds favor him, lets place a wager. Heck, despite your quoted projections and polls, I will even give you even odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenberg Posted October 30, 2012 Report Share Posted October 30, 2012 gallup is showing romney ahead 52-46 in the early voting, something nobody else is showing... and rasmussen has him projected to win 279 electoral votes It appears that I have to pay some money to read Rasmussen, am I right? Is it possible to list the states which Rasmussen projects for Romney and Silver projects for Obama? Of course some, Colorado and Virgina, are listed as fairly close calls by Silver, and perhaps they are listed as close calls by Rasmussen. Still, it would be interesting to see which states they differ on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flem72 Posted October 30, 2012 Report Share Posted October 30, 2012 Silver doesn't claim that Obama is going to win by a 70:30 margin, he claims that there is a 70% chance that Obama is going to win. I understand his approach. That 70% chance translates to a big advantage in Pollingese. Here's another thing about the polling business. I suppose if a guy like Morris is just a tool, he will say anything he thinks he needs to. OTOH, don't any of these people -- and I have the same kinds of questions re: biased media folks -- value their reputations going forward? Or do they just figure no one will really remember and it'll all come out in the wash? From this point of view, by just making odds Silver really has it knocked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luke warm Posted October 30, 2012 Report Share Posted October 30, 2012 It appears that I have to pay some money to read Rasmussen, am I right? Is it possible to list the states which Rasmussen projects for Romney and Silver projects for Obama? Of course some, Colorado and Virgina, are listed as fairly close calls by Silver, and perhaps they are listed as close calls by Rasmussen. Still, it would be interesting to see which states they differ on. found here for gallup looks like i was wrong, it's 52 - 45 rather than 52 - 46 Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 45% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots. However, that is comparable to Romney's 51% to 46% lead among all likely voters in Gallup's Oct. 22-28 tracking polling. At the same time, the race is tied at 49% among those who have not yet voted but still intend to vote early, suggesting these voters could cause the race to tighten. However, Romney leads 51% to 45% among the much larger group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, Nov. 6.still looking for a link i can send you on the other here's another from gallup from 2008, showing (taking into account the 52-45 figure) that obama has lost 22% early voters from 2008 to 2012 These early voters are more likely to say they have voted for Barack Obama than for John McCain, by a 55% to 40% margin. Among those who plan to vote on Election Day, the spread is much closer -- only a 48% to 45% Obama advantage. one more for your amusement, from the weekly standard... the poll itself is supposed to be bipartisan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 30, 2012 Report Share Posted October 30, 2012 there are a lot of people on here i trust... Phil would work for mem if he's willing... i can paypal my funds to him, you do the same, he can then xfer it to the winner (taking out 10% for his fee, of course)... will that work? whatcha say Phil, you up for it? Me? Thanks for the trust, but I'm sure others can handle it. Jimmy is trustworthy - I think he recently let Hrothgar off of another bet if I am not mistaken. If I bet him I would not have any concerns he'd welch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrothgar Posted October 30, 2012 Report Share Posted October 30, 2012 Me? Thanks for the trust, but I'm sure others can handle it. Jimmy is trustworthy - I think he recently let Hrothgar off of another bet if I am not mistaken. That he did, and for a not insignificant sum... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luke warm Posted October 30, 2012 Report Share Posted October 30, 2012 If I bet him I would not have any concerns he'd welch.never have, never will Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike777 Posted October 30, 2012 Report Share Posted October 30, 2012 One week to go the President has a solid lead. Obama: 237 - Romney: 206 - Toss-up: 95 http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/election_2012 294---243 http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ 290-248 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html-- Fifteen percent of registered voters nationwide have already cast their ballots in this year's election, according to Gallup Daily tracking for the week ending Oct. 28. That is up sharply from 5% a week earlier. The overall percentage either having already voted or planning to vote before Election Day has also increased -- to 33%, from roughly 25% in each of the prior three weeks http://www.gallup.com/poll/158420/registered-voters-already-cast-ballots.aspx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luke warm Posted October 31, 2012 Report Share Posted October 31, 2012 40-1 on Michigan 30-1 on Penn.okay, we're down per our discussions... we'll figure out how to disburse the money later... i've already got mine spent, buying some more gold and silver :) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenberg Posted October 31, 2012 Report Share Posted October 31, 2012 I clicked on the Rasmussen poll from Mike's post. I was recently polled by phone by someone, and I love the questions. Here is one recult from Rasmussen: 64% Think Too Many Americans Dependent on Government Financial AidOnly 64%???? Certainly I think that it is really too bad that a laid off worker with a family to support has to depend on food stamps for survival. I certainly favor giving food stamps to people who need them, but I also would strongly prefer that fewer people needed them. So I guess I think that too many Americans depend on government financial aid. I am not, or at least not entirely, just trying to be cute here. On the phone poll that I took I was supposed to answer yes, no, or no opinion on a variety of questions which I thought were badly phrased. I think pollsters should offer the option "I think your question is idiotic". 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billw55 Posted October 31, 2012 Report Share Posted October 31, 2012 Years ago a pollster called my home. I answered the first question with in a conservative/republican manner, and the pollster promptly hung up on me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelandakh Posted October 31, 2012 Report Share Posted October 31, 2012 kenberg, watching might give you a little insight into why questions are sometimes (deliberately) badly drawn, esepcially during an election campaign. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PassedOut Posted October 31, 2012 Author Report Share Posted October 31, 2012 okay, we're down per our discussions... we'll figure out how to disburse the money later... i've already got mine spent, buying some more gold and silver :)And... President Obama’s senior campaign adviser David Axelrod said Wednesday he’d shave his signature mustache if Obama loses Minnesota, Michigan or Pennsylvania to Mitt Romney. :P Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.