Romney vs. Obama

[mike777]

Nate has the lead for the President increasing.

 

Hard to see how Romney can win with women, gays, minorites and the 47% not voting for him.

[lalldonn]

seriously though, i don't think this is over yet...

I don't disagree. Even believing Nate as I do that means Romney currently has nearly a 30% chance of winning. I'm not as comfortable as I was with Obama against McCain. That one felt in the bag the whole time. But one thing I'll say is I don't think the general public cares about Libya nearly as much as you and Romney seem to believe. What percentage of Americans do you suppose can even point it out on a map, or name the capital city, or heck even say for sure what continent it's on?

[mike777]

I don't disagree. Even believing Nate as I do that means Romney currently has nearly a 30% chance of winning. I'm not as comfortable as I was with Obama against McCain. That one felt in the bag the whole time. But one thing I'll say is I don't think the general public cares about Libya nearly as much as you and Romney seem to believe. What percentage of Americans do you suppose can even point it out on a map, or name the capital city, or heck even say for sure what continent it's on?

 

 

gd pt.

[PassedOut]

Even believing Nate as I do that means Romney currently has nearly a 30% chance of winning. I'm not as comfortable as I was with Obama against McCain.

I'm quite uncomfortable that it's this close too. 70% is not a lock by any means. (I guess all bridge players know that for sure.)

[lalldonn]

Now at 66.9%, maybe due to the CNN Florida poll that just came out.

[luke warm]

Now at 66.9%, maybe due to the CNN Florida poll that just came out.

does he say anything about PA or VA? no matter what, i see a nearly impossible road for romney w/out ohio

[hrothgar]

does he say anything about PA or VA? no matter what, i see a nearly impossible road for romney w/out ohio

 

Silver lists PA as 89.2% chance of Obama win

VA as 53.1% chance of Romney win

MI as 96% chance of Obama win

WI as 79.8% chance of Obama win

FL as 68.9% chance of Romney win

[luke warm]

He evidently doesn't believe the latest polls

[TimG]

What percentage of Americans do you suppose can even point it out on a map, or name the capital city, or heck even say for sure what continent it's on?

3 for 3! But, I was far from confident about the capital.

 

I bet the percentage of Americans that can point to Iraq, Iran, and Israel on a map is also rather small, but that doesn't mean Americans don't have strong opinions about all three.

 

Many opinions are not based upon a foundation of knowledge. (Mine included.)

[Chas_P]

But one thing I'll say is I don't think the general public cares about Libya nearly as much as you and Romney seem to believe.

 

That's certainly borne out in

.

[jonottawa]

I still don't know who to cheer for on Nov 6. Imagine how weak Barry will be if he wins and Willard wins the popular vote. I'd like to think the legacy of Obama will be that selling out your principles to try to appeal to Republicans doesn't work. Barry never fought, always chose likable over tough, never used the bully pulpit and then was a no-show for the most important night of his political career. He's been doing it wrong for 4 years and I think Repugs are going to either win this election or the next one and maybe it might as well be this one.

 

Maybe it's time to let the wingnuts finish breaking America. Let them repeal Roe v Wade and criminalize abortion. They'll alienate women for the next 50 years. Let them crack down hard on illegal immigration. They'll lose the Hispanic vote for the next 50 years. Let them cut social programs to the bone. They'll lose the working class for the next 50 years. Let them voucherize medicare. They'll lose seniors for the next 50 years. Let them deal with the fiscal mess they created. Let them starve the beast. All Democratic opposition seems to have accomplished is to force Repugs to break America more slowly. Let's hurry things along.

[mike777]

I predict if a republican wins ...granted long shot

 

 

we will see many.. many more jokes on forums compared to last 4 years about prez...

 

 

feel free to count but i think many more....

 

I see dog on car jokes

I see binders on car jokes

 

you add.....

 

in any case how in the world can romney win with war on women....and war on rest....

 

I see about 1% vote

[kenberg]

3 for 3! But, I was far from confident about the capital.

 

I bet the percentage of Americans that can point to Iraq, Iran, and Israel on a map is also rather small, but that doesn't mean Americans don't have strong opinions about all three.

 

Many opinions are not based upon a foundation of knowledge. (Mine included.)

 

This matches me exactly, including being glad that my life did not depend on being right about the capital. From the halls of Montezuma... and all that helped. I come from St. Paul, Minnesota, where we took great offense at the frequent reference to "Minneapolis, the capital of Minnesota". Many years back some radio station lured some legislators and would be legislators to a program where they were given a pop quiz. One of the questions was to name the Prime minister of Israel. One of the answers was "Some little Jewish fellow".

[luke warm]

Let them repeal Roe v Wade and criminalize abortion. They'll alienate women for the next 50 years.

the two don't go hand in hand... reps view (mainly - they differ from one another as much as the useful idiots do) is that this and other issues are best left to the states, or the people (you know, kinda like the constitution says)

 

Let them crack down hard on illegal immigration. They'll lose the Hispanic vote for the next 50 years.

nah... i think when the vote is limited to only legals, it's doable... besides, what's wrong with trying to stop illegal immigration? there are tons of people trying to come here legally, playing by the rules, etc, and can't

 

Let them cut social programs to the bone. They'll lose the working class for the next 50 years.

don't conflate working class with the poor... presently, welfare funding exceeds all other fed gov't funding - defense, ssa/medicare, foreign aid, hell even obama's funding of green energies :) ... getting people back to work is the best thing that can happen to them and for the country

 

Let them voucherize medicare. They'll lose seniors for the next 50 years.

wrong again... actually look at the plan... besides nothing changing for present seniors, even those falling under the guidelines of the new plan can opt into medicare... also, that population changes very quickly... people beez dyin' all da time, jack

 

Let them deal with the fiscal mess they created. Let them starve the beast. All Democratic opposition seems to have accomplished is to force Repugs to break America more slowly. Let's hurry things along.

right, the mess *they* created... the useful idiots have had a hand in all of this

[lalldonn]

He evidently doesn't believe the latest polls

Either that, or he knows more about this than you. One of those two possibilities.

[hrothgar]

He evidently doesn't believe the latest polls

 

Wikipedia has a good summary describing Silver's methods including how he weight's information based on time as well as nearest neighbor analysis.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight

 

FWIW, current reports suggest that Obama is establishing a firewall consisting of

 

Ohio: 70.7% chance of a Obama win

New Hampshire: 62.8% chance of an Obama win

Nevada: 72.9% chance of an Obama win

Iowa: 66.1% chance of an Obama win

 

If Obama is able to win all for states, its almost impossible for Romney to win.

Obama can lose Florida, Wisconsin, you name it...

[Winstonm]

luke warm' timestamp='1350744263' post='675980'

 

 

don't conflate working class with the poor... presently, welfare funding exceeds all other fed gov't funding - defense, ssa/medicare, foreign aid, hell even obama's funding of green energies :) ... getting people back to work is the best thing that can happen to them and for the country.

 

 

Curious where you get your data. Here is what I found for 2013 spending. I don't see your welfare claim reflected in the data, not that I am shocked to find no supporting data, as I am certain you heard some partisan GOP storyteller proclaim this perversion of fact to be true, making it, to those who share that worldview, true by narrative.

 

 

 

] Pensions 878.5 0.0 177.9 40.1 1,096.5

[+] Health Care 916.1 -376.7 464.1 135.8 1,139.4

[+] Education 136.1 -133.8 269.5 644.9 916.7

[+] Defense 901.4 0.0 0.8 0.0 902.3

[–] Welfare 422.3 -50.4 281.2 97.6 750.7

[+] Family and children 111.7 0.0 12.5 11.2 135.4

[+] Unemployment 77.4 -5.6 5.8 0.0 77.6

[+] Unemployment trust 0.0 0.0 171.0 0.6 171.6

[+] Workers compensation 7.4 0.0 14.4 0.0 21.8

[+] Housing 57.0 -44.9 12.9 46.6 71.7

[+] Social exclusion n.e.c. 168.7 0.0 57.2 39.2 265.1

[+] R&D Social protection 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

[+] Social protection n.e.c. 0.0 0.0 7.4 0.0 7.4

[+] Protection 62.8 0.0 91.7 185.8 340.3

[+] Transportation 114.2 -68.7 116.8 139.5 301.8

[+] General Government 28.1 -1.2 32.8 54.3 114.0

[+] Other Spending 96.2 -64.8 97.4 350.5 479.3

[+] Interest 247.7 0.0 47.4 62.7 357.8

[+] Balance -0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0

[+] Total Spending 3,803.4 -695.6 1,579.8 1,711.3 6,398.8

[kenberg]

I'll bite. What do the numbers mean? The first line says

Pensions 878.5 0.0 177.9 40.1 1,096.5

From this I should conclude ?

[lalldonn]

I'll bite. What do the numbers mean? The first line says

Pensions 878.5 0.0 177.9 40.1 1,096.5

From this I should conclude ?

http://www.usfederalbudget.us/year_spending_2013USbf_13bs1n_0010

The first number in each row is federal spending in billions for fiscal year 2013.

[y66]

And now for something completely different from Michael Bloomberg. I love this guy.

[jonottawa]

And now for something completely different from Michael Bloomberg. I love this guy.

"For Mr. Obama: “This business of ‘Well, they can afford it; they should pay their fair share?’ Who are you to say ‘Somebody else’s fair share?’ ”"

 

This is pretty rich coming from the guy who thinks it's his business to tell people how much soda they can drink.

[TimG]

Maybe it's time to let the wingnuts finish breaking America. Let them repeal Roe v Wade and criminalize abortion. They'll alienate women for the next 50 years. Let them crack down hard on illegal immigration. They'll lose the Hispanic vote for the next 50 years. Let them cut social programs to the bone. They'll lose the working class for the next 50 years. Let them voucherize medicare. They'll lose seniors for the next 50 years.

US voters have much shorter memories than 50 years and somehow believe that things can be fixed in four years.

[blackshoe]

What attack against "US soil"?

 

Embassies and consulates don't automatically have extra territoriality unless it is specifically created via a bilateral treaty.

 

Talk about "does not know".

Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, Article 22: The premises of a diplomatic mission, such as an embassy, are inviolate and must not be entered by the host country except by permission of the head of the mission. Furthermore, the host country must protect the mission from intrusion or damage. The host country must never search the premises, nor seize its documents or property. Article 30 extends this provision to the private residence of the diplomats.

So not an attack on "US soil", but certainly an act of international terrorism, although probably not an act of war, since it was apparently not "armed conflict between military forces" (see 18USC2331).

[luke warm]

But one thing I'll say is I don't think the general public cares about Libya nearly as much as you and Romney seem to believe. What percentage of Americans do you suppose can even point it out on a map, or name the capital city, or heck even say for sure what continent it's on?

i think you're wrong on this, though i wouldn't bet on it... it's not so much libya per se, as bad as that was, it's the fact that everyone was begging for more security and nobody seemed to think it was important (even with 9/11 looming)... that and the fact that it was over a month before obama took responsibility for it, though hillary sorta preempted him on that "buck stops here" stuff

 

so it's more about lack of leadership than anything else, imo

 

FWIW, current reports suggest that Obama is establishing a firewall consisting of

 

Ohio: 70.7% chance of a Obama win

New Hampshire: 62.8% chance of an Obama win

Nevada: 72.9% chance of an Obama win

Iowa: 66.1% chance of an Obama win

 

If Obama is able to win all for states, its almost impossible for Romney to win.

Obama can lose Florida, Wisconsin, you name it...

really? hmmm... i'd be willing to take romney on some of those at those odds, if you want... say 7:3 OH (for $120), 7:3 NV (another $120), and (to even it out) 7:3 in IA (oh what the hell, another $120)... i figure you'll probably win one or two of those, but either of us could possibly lose all 3... crap, might as well go all the way... i'll take 3:2 on NH for $120, alex

 

i'm only doing this out of my innate kindness, so you can get even (or even make a few bucks)... i, like most conservatives, am nothing if not fair

 

Curious where you get your data. Here is what I found for 2013 spending.

probably the same place you get yours...however, 2013 spending is a projection... i was speaking of actual spending we know of, 2011 being the last full year for which data exists... second, while i did exclude medicare, i did not exclude medicaid and other safety net programs, nor do i make any judgement concerning their necessity or desirability... there are "hidden" costs of medicaid-type programs, hidden from the fed budget anyway, since those funds are matched by the states... anyway, medicaid-type programs were about 8% of the 2011 spending, welfare itself another 13%, for a total of 21%

 

in 2013, healthcare alone is projected to go from nearly 13% to nearly 14%

 

yesterday at 4:30 i said:

 

seriously though, i don't think this is over yet... being the political savant that i am, i foresee one, maybe two, october surprises still to come... the easy one is drones taking out the libyan murderers (you know, the ones pissed about a video)... the tough one is obama getting iran to stop enriching in exchange for the easing of sanctions... i don't recall how many electoral votes iran has, but that should help obama

i see on the news today that #2 is about to come true... romney has to prepare some sort of response to this, and he doesn't have a lot of time between now and monday nite (good timing by the administration, eh?)

[Winstonm]

i was speaking of actual spending we know of, 2011 being the last full year for which data exists.

 

If you are interested at all in accuracy, then what matters is discretionary spending - lumping all social programs you don't personally like and calling them collectively "welfare" is disingenuous.

 

It is clear that defense and warfare overwhelm discretionary spending, and a quick search supports that claim:

 

 

Discretionary outlays—the part of federal spending that lawmakers generally control through annual appropriation acts—totaled about $1.35 trillion in 2011, or close to 40 percent of federal outlays. Slightly more than half of that spending was for defense. The remainder went for a wide variety of government programs and activities, with the largest amounts spent for education, training, employment, and social services; transportation; income security (mostly housing and nutrition assistance); veterans' benefits (primarily for health care); health-related research and public health; international affairs; and the administration of justice.

 

source: CBO