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Your lead


Mbodell

  

17 members have voted

  1. 1. You lead



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Not much point trying a spade, since partner with Kxxxx (plus a jack or queen) might have found a 1 bid. A small club might be his ninth trick, as might a heart (if he has Kx). With a passed partner I don't think we can get five tricks by attacking so I am going to hope he only has eight and lead a passive diamond. Maybe the hand is something like:[hv=pc=n&s=saqjhqj763d4ck853&w=st973ht982dt3cq94&n=s8542ha4dj62ct762&e=sk6hk5dakq9875caj]399|300[/hv]
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I voted for a small club, but exchange the 4 with the T on Quantumcat's layout and only a diamond gives the defense a chance.

I am not sure I understand this Rainer. You are a much better analyst than I but I cannot see where the defence has any chance whatsoever after South gets thrown in on clubs.

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I am not sure I understand this Rainer. You are a much better analyst than I but I cannot see where the defence has any chance whatsoever after South gets thrown in on clubs.

Assume declarer cashes diamonds

In the six card ending South keeps AQJ, 3, -, K3

Now a club throw-in does not work, since you have 5 tricks on a heart exit.

(On the original layout declarer could exit with the K, that's why the 4 needs to be exchanged with the T)

If declarer exits in spades he himself gets squeezed.

In both cases the scenario is the same if declarer does not cash diamonds.

 

Rainer Herrmann

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If you are going to hand pick a model example to illustrate your point it might be better to choose one where the contract is not cold.

I must be missing something really obvious. How is the contract cold? If declarer sets up his club can't you put partner on lead and take three spades a club and a heart?

Edit: Ok, I think I understand Rainer's post. Ignoring my stupid made up hand, for the OP, either declarer has nine tricks and I can;t see how attacking can get us to five, or he has eight, and a diamond is the card least likely to give away a trick.

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