S2000magic Posted August 20, 2012 Author Report Share Posted August 20, 2012 By the way, for what it's worth, LHO had the ♦Q. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_20686 Posted August 20, 2012 Report Share Posted August 20, 2012 I go up with the queen. Then I cash whichever red-suit winners I have. This makes in all the layouts that you make, and also when LHO has ♥Jx. The only "guess" I'm going to make is that RHO won't bare ♠K. How does that make when the layout is:[hv=pc=n&s=sjhqt4dkjc&w=s54h65dq8c&n=saqhk732dc&e=sk2haj9d9c]399|300[/hv] when I am making trivially? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gnasher Posted August 20, 2012 Report Share Posted August 20, 2012 How does that make when the layout is:[layout snipped] when I am making trivially?In Post 14 Rainer said he was assuming from the lead that ♦Q was on the right. In post 22 I made it clear that I too was assuming that. In post 23 you disputed the analysis in post 22, apparently stating that in the context on the assumptions in post 22 "If you play a heart to the ace a heart comes back and you have to guess the heart position before the squeeze, in which case you haven't really gained". My post 25 was a rebuttal of post 23, so obviously it had the same assumptions as post 22. Sorry if that wasn't obvious, but we were conducting a conversation, so I expected my comments to be considered in the context of that conversation rather than in isolation. The alternative, I suppose, would be for me to copy and paste all my previous posts into each new post. Would that make things easier to follow? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_20686 Posted August 20, 2012 Report Share Posted August 20, 2012 In Post 14 Rainer said he was assuming from the lead that ♦Q was on the right. In post 22 I made it clear that I too was assuming that. In post 23 you disputed the analysis in post 22, apparently stating that in the context on the assumptions in post 22 "If you play a heart to the ace a heart comes back and you have to guess the heart position before the squeeze, in which case you haven't really gained". My post 25 was a rebuttal of post 23, so obviously it had the same assumptions as post 22. Sorry if that wasn't obvious, but we were conducting a conversation, so I expected my comments to be considered in the context of that conversation rather than in isolation. The alternative, I suppose, would be for me to copy and paste all my previous posts into each new post. Would that make things easier to follow? Sorry the cricket is distracting. Basically you are playing for a progressive squeeze on rho, when he guards all three suits, but you will have to guess which guard he has bared: [hv=pc=n&s=sjhqtdkjc&w=shdc&n=saqh642dc&e=sk2hj3dq2c]399|300[/hv] and rho hand is made by removing one of those cards. (rho on lead). If RHO kept two spades, he can return K spade at this point, and you have to guess which red suit he is guarding and get rid of the other one on the second spade. If he has bared the spade K, he will return a heart, or a diamond, and you will have to guess how to finesse. I really don't see how you avoid guessing rho's shape. There are variations, but always rho can make you guess before you can test both red suits. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gnasher Posted August 20, 2012 Report Share Posted August 20, 2012 I'm going to avoid guessing RHO's shape because he isn't going to return a spade into dummy's AQ. He's going to hope that his partner is guarding the red suit he has unguarded, and defend accordingly. Imagine, for example, that East had blanked ♦Q, but declarer's diamonds were K10 rather than KJ. If East returned a spade, he would let through a hopeless contract. He just won't do that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
han Posted August 21, 2012 Report Share Posted August 21, 2012 I don't understand why someone would assume from the diamond lead that the queen is on the right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdano Posted August 27, 2012 Report Share Posted August 27, 2012 I agree with Han, it seems normal to lead aggressive against this auction. (Of course, I don't know what LHOs who miss obvious Lightner doubles tend to do.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLOGIC Posted August 28, 2012 Report Share Posted August 28, 2012 I don't understand why someone would assume from the diamond lead that the queen is on the right. lol yeah I'm with you. I am late to the party so I guess I can't lol given full ino, but LHO led their longest unbid suit. Seems pretty standard for bad players, all they learn is 4th best or a sequence and don't lead suits that have been bid. I would make it like 50/50 (I guess more since LHOs longest red suit is diamonds) that LHO has the DQ. I guess it's actually more depending on what card RHO played at trick 1 (I didn't really read the whole thread, maybe it was stated, but a fast 8 or a slow 9 or a fast 9 would give us info). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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