How's Your Sniffer?

[daveharty]

[hv=pc=n&s=sq764hat84da3cj76&n=sakt82hkq9d97642c]133|200[/hv]

 

North deals, favorable at IMPs.

 

A. Do you want to be in 6♠;

B. If so, could you sniff it out?

 

At my table (bot partner) the auction went 1♠ - 3♠ - 4♠.

[CSGibson]

[hv=pc=n&s=sq764hat84da3cj76&n=sakt82hkq9d97642c]133|200[/hv]

 

North deals, favorable at IMPs.

 

A. Do you want to be in 6♠;

B. If so, could you sniff it out?

 

At my table (bot partner) the auction went 1♠ - 3♠ - 4♠.

 

slam is on if spades are 2-2 (40%) and diamonds are no worse than 4-2 (85%), so for practical purposes, 34% of the time you will be making because spades are 2-2.

 

When spades are 3-1 (50%), then slam comes home when diamonds are 3-3 (35%) or on the 3-1 breaks where the long hand also has long diamonds (18%). So you will make another 26% because spades are 3-1.

 

When spades are 4-0 with west (5%), then slam comes home when diamonds are 3-3 (35%) and no club lead (?)

 

These are rough estimates, but its clear to me that this is a better than 50% slam.

 

That being said, my auction would be 1S-3S-4S, I don't cater to perfectos that, even when they occur, still are only ~ 60% to make.

Edited August 19, 2012 by CSGibson

[CSGibson]

my numbers were wrong originally, I've since corrected the previous post. Edited August 19, 2012 by CSGibson

[Phil]

Playing a structure where 2N is limit +, you'd sniff at it I think, since opener can show club shortness at a low level.

[ggwhiz]

I would have to upgrade the south hand to a jacoby 2nt to get there. I don't think it's a poor stretch with 2 bullets at imps.

[Cyberyeti]

You can sniff this slam easily, but to bid it with any confidence, you need to know that S has Ax rather than Axx of diamonds, or S needs to know about the club void, AK♠ and KQ ♥, I think there's too much to do.

 

We'd bid: (In an Acol 4M context)

 

1♠-2N (high card raise to 3 or better, 4+ spades, unlimited)

4♣(Inv voidwood)- now it's close whether I show this as flat broke for my 2N, Q♠ and 2 aces are very nice cards, I could be a lot stronger, but not much wastage in clubs

 

If I show as broke with 4♠, partner passes

 

If I show as better than flat broke with 4N (2+Q), partner bids 5♣ rolling and I bid 5♠ now he's on a guess whether I have 3 diamonds and how good they are, he knows I have ♠Qxxx or more and both red aces, but not the K♦ and I don't have a good 5 card side suit. Close decision.

 

And yes CSGibson's odds are off because you have to decide whether to cash one or two spades so you can't combine all the chances of 2-2 and 3-1 breaks.

[CSGibson]

 

And yes CSGibson's odds are off because you have to decide whether to cash one or two spades so you can't combine all the chances of 2-2 and 3-1 breaks.

 

They are closer now. There is some correction for 5-1 diamonds taken out of 2-2 spades, because I think the best line is to cash a spade, then duck a diamond. Its still clearly better than 50%, though.

[Cyberyeti]

They are closer now. There is some correction for 5-1 diamonds taken out of 2-2 spades, because I think the best line is to cash a spade, then duck a diamond. Its still clearly better than 50%, though.

Yup, agree now, I think you can ignore the other situation where I think it makes in practice on a 4-0 as you'd hear about it in the bidding, give E void, Jx, xx, any 9.

[rmnka447]

Our auction would be 1 ♠ - 3 ♠ - 4 ♠ with just about any of the good players I play with.

 

There's just no way to get there after a limit raise.