Phil Posted August 17, 2012 Report Share Posted August 17, 2012 What is the most common card played to the 13th trick? I have a theory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wyman Posted August 17, 2012 Report Share Posted August 17, 2012 ♦7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrMunk Posted August 17, 2012 Report Share Posted August 17, 2012 Does it involve beer? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masse24 Posted August 17, 2012 Report Share Posted August 17, 2012 ♦7 is a cute ;) theory but I would posit that it is a ♠ (no guess as to which one) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwar0123 Posted August 17, 2012 Report Share Posted August 17, 2012 The first card played to the 13th trick or the last card played to the 13th trick or the card that wins the 13th trick? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BunnyGo Posted August 17, 2012 Report Share Posted August 17, 2012 The first card played to the 13th trick or the last card played to the 13th trick or the card that wins the 13th trick? I think he meant any of the 4 cards in the 13th trick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kuhchung Posted August 17, 2012 Report Share Posted August 17, 2012 In context (e.g. small trump), or the actual card? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 17, 2012 Author Report Share Posted August 17, 2012 "What is the most common card played to the 13th trick?" I'm looking for the rank. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted August 17, 2012 Report Share Posted August 17, 2012 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bbradley62 Posted August 17, 2012 Report Share Posted August 17, 2012 Using the admittedly small sample of the 32 hands I've played today, I get:2: 83: 74: 75: 56: 77: 78: 119: 10T: 12J: 10Q: 16K: 19A: 9total: 128 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSGibson Posted August 17, 2012 Report Share Posted August 17, 2012 My own frequency table for 32 deals played online: A: 1K: 4Q: 5J: 5T: 5*9: 4*8: 47: 16: 05: 14: 13: 02: 1 Total: 32 cards on 8 unclaimed deals My own theory: Honor cards will be most frequent. There may be some self-selection in my deals because frequent claims on deals may impact results, but discarding by defenders make their cards most frequently honor cards, since those are rarely discarded, but aces will be relatively infrequent in general, since those control cards are frequently used early in the play. *2 in same hand Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmcw Posted August 18, 2012 Report Share Posted August 18, 2012 No question in my mind it will be a high honour, likely not the ace. Toss up Q or K, slight edge to Q Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 18, 2012 Author Report Share Posted August 18, 2012 I should qualify it to exclude claims, otherwise you'd have to make arbitrary rules about the order of remaining tricks. I'm surprised to see middle honors in the samples. I would have expected the 9 or 10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanoi5 Posted August 18, 2012 Report Share Posted August 18, 2012 The guys at the 1st Youth Congress gave me the file with all the hands played during the swiss tournament, all the cards were as likely to be led to the first trick. No last trick there though. I'd think it'd be more or less the same... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_20686 Posted August 20, 2012 Report Share Posted August 20, 2012 Surely it will be a middle spade. 7,8,9 of spades would be my guess. Feels like you are always winning the last trick with a middle trump, the small ones go ruffing and under the spade honours, the higher ones are used drawing trumps. Spades is the most common denomination for trumps. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inquiry Posted August 20, 2012 Report Share Posted August 20, 2012 Short test grabbing hands from bridgebrowser... this was a small sample, i have a spreadsheet for pulling this information out, so I can make it a very large set of data if it is really important. Cards played to the last trick.... the winner is the jack...... so far, i can look at 10,000 hands or more if better statistical numbers are needed. A: 116K: 318Q: 405J: 42410: 3889: 2748: 2797: 1636: 1035: 734: 613: 332: 31 667 hands (many duplicates, since looked at all hands played, not just one persons).... the small size was to develop excel spreadsheet to pull out last trick and count the cards played. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 20, 2012 Author Report Share Posted August 20, 2012 Perfect, thanks Ben. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inquiry Posted August 20, 2012 Report Share Posted August 20, 2012 Perfect, thanks Ben. WELL, here is data from 10,000 hands (only 6243 played all the way to trick 13,,, now the Q is the "winner") A: 1337K: 2602Q: 3256J: 315610: 30459: 24738: 19627: 13586: 10035: 6584: 4903: 3072: 177 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barmar Posted August 21, 2012 Report Share Posted August 21, 2012 What if you get specific to the suit? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLOGIC Posted August 21, 2012 Report Share Posted August 21, 2012 Does excluding claims bias the results? Maybe bad players never claim so it doesn't matter. I'm not sure if it's relevant, but when you have aces to win the last trick with or high trumps a claim is more likely to be made. FWIW I also thought it would be the ten of spades or something liek that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leo LaSota Posted August 21, 2012 Report Share Posted August 21, 2012 If I had to guess, hands played in nt average slightly lower in terms of rank of card that wins trick 13 versus hands played in a suit contract. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barmar Posted August 21, 2012 Report Share Posted August 21, 2012 Even without claims, I wouldn't expect aces and kings to be played frequently on the last trick. If you're running a suit, you usually start from the top, so the ace will be played early. And defense, honor sequences are common leads early in the play. The low occurrence of low spot cards is also unsurprising. These are frequent early leads, played when you can't try to win, or easy discards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inquiry Posted August 21, 2012 Report Share Posted August 21, 2012 Does excluding claims bias the results? Maybe bad players never claim so it doesn't matter. I'm not sure if it's relevant, but when you have aces to win the last trick with or high trumps a claim is more likely to be made. FWIW I also thought it would be the ten of spades or something liek that. I thought the original post request played to the "last trick" meant trick 13. What i do is output 1000's of hands from bridgebrowser in a format such as below, paste into excel, create filter and count rows that begin with pc|, and if the one before it began with pc, add one... so 13 plays in order would give the last row with 13... if no pc| at the start of row, then gets a "0"... then select only rows where the count was 13.... Doing this you could find most common lead, for example. Not sure either is useful. To do the which card, by suit, I guess we will have to count a lot more hands... maybe 100,000 or 200,000. I will give it a try tomorrow. mn|IMP-90 - 2009.04.01|pn|South,West,North,East|qx|o1,BOARD 1|rh||ah|Board 1|md|3S86HJ92DQ4CAT7632,SQJ743H64DT9CQJ95,SKTHKQ8DAKJ65CK84|sv|b|em|NS 9.13|sa|0|mb|2N|mb|p|mb|3N|mb|p|mb|p|mb|p|pg||pc|H5|pc|H2|pc|H6|pc|HK|pg||pc|D5|pc|D2|pc|DQ|pc|DT|pg||pc|C2|pc|C5|pc|C8|pc|S2|pg||pc|DA|pc|D3|pc|D4|pc|D9|pg||pc|DK|pc|D7|pc|S6|pc|S3|pg||pc|DJ|pc|D8|pc|S8|pc|S4|pg||pc|D6|pc|S5|pc|C3|pc|S7|pg||pc|H8|pc|HA|pc|H9|pc|H4|pg||pc|HT|pc|HJ|pc|SQ|pc|HQ|pg||pc|CK|pc|S9|pc|C6|pc|CJ|pg||pc|C4|pc|H3|pc|CA|pc|C9|pg||mc|10|pg||pn|South,West,North,East|qx|o2,BOARD 2|rh||ah|Board 2|md|3S86HJ92DQ4CAT7632,SQJ743H64DT9CQJ95,SKTHKQ8DAKJ65CK84|sv|b|em|NS 8.60|sa|0|mb|1D|mb|1H|mb|1N|mb|p|mb|3N|mb|p|mb|p|mb|p|pg| Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLOGIC Posted August 21, 2012 Report Share Posted August 21, 2012 Sure, you answered the question and the answer has no use, I guess I was trying to ask if it would be much different if people never claimed(which, as you imply, was not asked). I really had no point to my question, just was curious what people thought heh. I would be curious as to the most common lead also. I would guess it's the CA (because people lead a lot of aces! and clubs is the least likely trump suit), or the CK (because many lead K from both AK and KQ). I find these thinkgs interesting just for the sake of them lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EricK Posted August 21, 2012 Report Share Posted August 21, 2012 Sure, you answered the question and the answer has no use, I guess I was trying to ask if it would be much different if people never claimed(which, as you imply, was not asked). I really had no point to my question, just was curious what people thought heh. I would be curious as to the most common lead also. I would guess it's the CA (because people lead a lot of aces! and clubs is the least likely trump suit), or the CK (because many lead K from both AK and KQ). I find these thinkgs interesting just for the sake of them lolI was guessing maybe the ♠2 for a commonest lead. I have heard a number of people say, against NT, "If in doubt leads ♠", and I have heard a number of people say "If in doubt lead trumps." [i am not advocating for or against either of these rules of thumb]. You are most likely to be in doubt against NT if you have a choice of 4 card suits to lead (I reckon), and ♠ is the most likely trump suit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.