Hanoi5 Posted August 4, 2012 Report Share Posted August 4, 2012 All white, you hold: ♠JT763♥KJ8♦75♣542 1♦-2♣2NT-3NT What do you lead? Would it make a difference if you're playing MP's or IMP's? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aguahombre Posted August 4, 2012 Report Share Posted August 4, 2012 low spade Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillPatch Posted August 4, 2012 Report Share Posted August 4, 2012 I prefer the J of ♠, second choice 6 of ♠. I would be less enthusiastic about falsecarding with another ♠ opening lead. I do not like the idea of leading from the major tenace in, would lead J of ♥ at gunpoint, if I believed gunman was serious. As bad would be to lead one of their minor suits, perhaps opener has a three card ♦. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siegmund Posted August 4, 2012 Report Share Posted August 4, 2012 Spade seems clear. I expect the hearts to provide at least one and possibly two entries. The time you don't lead your long suit is when you expect to have no entry to it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the hog Posted August 4, 2012 Report Share Posted August 4, 2012 S for me. No doubt the K of H was the killing lead else this would not be posted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gszes Posted August 4, 2012 Report Share Posted August 4, 2012 assuming we have a realistic chance to defeat this p probably has around 10hcp and was silenced so they are unlikley to have a very distributional hand.The hearts are unlikley to provide timely entries so our lead needs to hit wherep has some goods and fast (clubs split dia finesses are in favor of opps etc) A spade seems to fit the description the best and I lean toward the spade J since it offers a bit of extra protection against declarer having A9x with say Qx in dummy. Ifwe can prevent declarer from taking 2 spade tricks our odds of setting go updramatically. By holding the opps to 1 spade winner our heart holding now startsto stand out as a strong entry possibility. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyberyeti Posted August 4, 2012 Report Share Posted August 4, 2012 S for me. No doubt the K of H was the killing lead else this would not be posted.Probably J♥ rather than K, I'm leading a spade also Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanoi5 Posted August 5, 2012 Author Report Share Posted August 5, 2012 Well I thought I was gonna get more support, so I simulated 100 hands and it turns out a spade is a 'safer' lead (it usually gives more tricks to the defense) but they are both as likely to defeat the contract. Maybe a larger sample will show a spade defeats it more often but it won't be by such a large percentage. Hearts were not a suit to develop so I'm not so sure how often we'd have two entries from it. So I guess you should usually lead a spade, unless 'you're feeling lucky, punk'. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quantumcat Posted August 6, 2012 Report Share Posted August 6, 2012 If a heart was the killing lead, partner might have overcalled 1♥. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aguahombre Posted August 6, 2012 Report Share Posted August 6, 2012 If a heart was the killing lead, partner might have overcalled 1♥.There might have been problems with that, unless he corrected to 2H. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the hog Posted August 6, 2012 Report Share Posted August 6, 2012 Probably J♥ rather than K, I'm leading a spade also Not necessarily. Give pd 5H to the Q and an entry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aguahombre Posted August 6, 2012 Report Share Posted August 6, 2012 If I am declarer, the diamond 7 will be the best shot. But, OP is not leading against my 4=4=3=2 guaranteed distribution. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quantumcat Posted August 6, 2012 Report Share Posted August 6, 2012 There might have been problems with that, unless he corrected to 2H.Sorry! It's obvious now if we are on lead we must have been the ones to bid over 1♦. I should check my facts before posting in future :-( 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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