Finesse or squeeze to complete 7H?

[cf_John0]

Opening lead ♥2[hv=d=s&v=n&n=saqt3hk876d874caq&s=s6haqj94dakq93cj2]133|200|Scoring: IMP

1♣:2♠:3♥:3♠:4♦:4NT:5♠:5NT:7♦

Precision SYS.[/hv]

[helene_t]

West, being non-vulnerable, did not overcall 1♠ or 2♣, nor did he double 1♣. So there is slightly more than 50% chance that both black kings are on the same side. Ruff two spades and if the king does not fall, go for the end-play. (Oops, you're right, Gerben. Please ignore what I said). Edited November 19, 2004 by helene_t

[Gerben47]

Topic says 7♥ and auction says 7♦. I rather like to be in 7♥ where I need neither squeeze nor finesse as I can ruff a ♣ in dummy (except when ♥ were 4-0, in that case see below).

 

In 7♦ or in 7♥ with trumps 4-0: Play for the finesse because if you want to combine chances with tripleton ♠K you need to cash ♠A and both threats are in the same hand, which means that you cannot win if RHO has both Kings and a finesse would work as well against LHO.

[Free]

ALWAYS go for squeeze! If you fail, at least you'll get a 'nice try' compliment, and if you succeed, you'll be the hero :D

 

♦s need to be 3-2, so we have a really nice hand for a squeeze. Don't forget to cash ♣A soon enough...

[inquiry]

I like squeeze as much, maybe more than, the next guy. But on this hand, forget the squeeze.

 

The chances for the two kings are:

 

West       East

♠K♣K       no king     25%

♠K          ♠K♣K     25%

♣K          ♠K♣K     25%

no king….. ♠K♣K     25%

 

In the first and last hand, the squeeze works (as Free said, cash the club ACE first), so that is 50% chance.

 

In the middle two cases, the squeeze does not work, but you have to guess the hook to take. You will guess right only half the time, so while the combined chances if 50%, you will get it right only 25% of the time. However, in case one, the finessee (as well as the squeeze) works for another 25%. So the hook versus the squeeze is eactly 50% each. As free says if the odds are the same, go for the squeeze because it is more elegant.

 

But the odds are not the same. Spades, as pointed out above, provides an additional chance. The odds of a singleton, doubleton, or tripleton spade King is roughly 22%. So (Assuming trumps split so you can afford two spade ruffs, and assuming diamonds are no worse than 4-1) you should play to ruff two spades. When the king doesn't drop, the chance for a squeeze against EAST is gone due to lack of enttes, so you are reduced to a club finessee against WEST (or a showup squeeze which here is the same thing). The odds of this are much better than the simple hook or the finessee....

 

You make 22% of the time wihen spade king is in hand with short spades. Then of the remaining 78%, the club hook is 50% on (0.78 x 0.5 = 39%). 22+39 = 61%

 

Ben

[whereagles]

Ben, you forgot something: the squeeze also earns you an entry to the daily bulleting :D

[HeartA]

Opening lead ♥2[hv=d=s&v=n&n=saqt3hk876d874caq&s=s6haqj94dakq93cj2]133|200|Scoring: IMP

1♣:2♠:3♥:3♠:4♦:4NT:5♠:5NT:7♦

Precision SYS.[/hv]

Go for squeeze. Cash CA and run all the red cards....

[kgr]

But the odds are not the same. Spades, as pointed out above, provides an additional chance. The odds of a singleton, doubleton, or tripleton spade King is roughly 22%. So (Assuming trumps split so you can afford two spade ruffs, and

 

If North hand would have small club instead of the Q.

Then the odds for squeeze or finesse (in ♠) are the same?

[inquiry]

But the odds are not the same. Spades, as pointed out above, provides an additional chance. The odds of a singleton, doubleton, or tripleton spade King is roughly 22%. So (Assuming trumps split so you can afford two spade ruffs, and

 

If North hand would have small club instead of the Q.

Then the odds for squeeze or finesse (in ♠) are the same?

Change the hand to this...

 

[hv=d=s&v=n&n=saqt3hk876d874ca3&s=s6haqj94dakq93cq2]133|200|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

Now the odds of the spade finessee is 50%... either it wins or loses.. the odds of the squeeze (cash club ace first, vienna coup) is 50% (well mathematically marginally better as the club king might be singleton but we can forget that in the real world) as the king of spades is either with the king of clubs or it is not....

 

Basically the endings are... now.... (after cashing three spades and king not fall).

1) CKSK             no king           25%

2) CK                  SK                 25%

3) SK                  CK                  25%

4) No king           CKSK       . .      25%

 

In one and three, the spade hook works, 50% total

In 1 and four, the squeeze works, 50% total.

 

Both of these are better than playing for the drop of the spade King tripleton (22%), but you have a third optin. If the squeeze was working on WEST (case 1) you can still play the drop the king in three rounds and execute a type I positional simple squeeze against west. 

 

So playing A of spade and then two spade ruffs makes 22% of the time, changing the above odds to 

 

1a.) CKSK             no king          19.5%

2a) CK                  SK                 19.5%

3a) SK                  CK                  19.5%

4a) No king           CKSK       . .      19.5%

 

So to your 22%, you can add the 19.5 that both kings are with west, but this comes to a measely 41.5%… still you might choose this line if you discover EAST is long in hearts and diamonds (say 4♦ and 3♥ since no one bid clubs, you can’t expect west to have six clubs, so that EAST will have at least three clubs, and maybe more. However, such a discovery would also alter the odds somewhat…for both hook (more spades with WEST, more likely he has the king on sides for the hook) and dropping short suited king I would play the vienna squeeze for "style points" in this case. 

[Fluffy]

50%, vacant spaces doesn´t aply here? I thoug that when an opponent is asigned a King he has 1 less space for the other one so squeezes will work only about 12/13*1/2 times.

 

It is the same rule as why the % play of playing A with 11 cards to catch the King is better than finese.

[cf_John0]

Only squeeze could work correctly on this type of grand slam contract.

At another room,6H has been completed easy with endplay.

The bid sequence is:

1C:2S:2NT:3H:4D:4S:5D:6C:6H.

The full hand is:

[hv=d=s&v=n&n=saqt3hk876d874caq&w=sj752h532d5ct8653&e=sk984htdjt62ck974&s=s6haqj94dakq93cj2]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

Never finesse!

 

This hand is extracted from a series of Club League Matches.