play 6C

[Yu18772]

You got to 6♣ on the following hand (South is declaring):

[hv=pc=n&s=sathjdkj97caj9872&n=skj97haqt98d5ck53]133|200[/hv]

 

Lead A♦ and switch to small ♥. What would be the best line of play?

 

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[gnasher]

♥A; heart ruff; two top clubs ending in dummy, bringing down the queen; heart ruff; diamond ruff. Now:

- If clubs were 2-2 or LHO had a singleton queen: ruff the hearts good; draw the last trump.

- If LHO had ♣10xx: spade to the ace; cash the rest of the winners. In the ending decide whether to take a spade finesse or play for someone to have been squeezed. The squeeze works when LHO has ♥K and ♠Q, or either hand has ♦Q and ♠Q.

 

Variations:

If ♥K comes down in three rounds, just draw trumps.

If RHO has ♥Kxxxx and we haven't been overruffed, take a ruffing finesse.

If LHO has ♥Kxxxx, play the squeeze line.

[phil_20686]

♥A; heart ruff; two top clubs ending in dummy, bringing down the queen; heart ruff; diamond ruff. Now:

- If clubs were 2-2 or LHO had a singleton queen: ruff the hearts good; draw the last trump.

- If LHO had ♣10xx: spade to the ace; cash the rest of the winners. In the ending decide whether to take a spade finesse or play for someone to have been squeezed. The squeeze works when LHO has ♥K and ♠Q, or either hand has ♦Q and ♠Q.

 

Variations:

If ♥K comes down in three rounds, just draw trumps.

If RHO has ♥Kxxxx and we haven't been overruffed, take a ruffing finesse.

If LHO has ♥Kxxxx, play the squeeze line.

 

Is this really better than just ruffing two diamonds? Moreover, no one leads an ace from ace queen against slam so rho bound to have the diamond q, which makes ruffing two diamonds even better, Singleton ace makes 3-1 clubs v likely, so the only real danger is lho having QT or Q6 clubs when he can force the K and the club hook loses.

[rhm]

Is this really better than just ruffing two diamonds? Moreover, no one leads an ace from ace queen against slam so rho bound to have the diamond q, which makes ruffing two diamonds even better, Singleton ace makes 3-1 clubs v likely, so the only real danger is lho having QT or Q6 clubs when he can force the K and the club hook loses.

Trouble is that ruffing two diamonds means you have to find 3 entries to your hand before drawing trumps.

So claiming that this line is safer than gnasher's line is an illusion.

 

Rainer Herrmann

[billw55]

Is it reasonable to infer that cashing the ♦A means that LHO thinks his chances for another trick are pretty good? ... and therefore I assign him both the ♥K and ♠Q? In reality I would expect it to mean he has ♣Qxx but of course that makes it hopeless.

[phil_20686]

Trouble is that ruffing two diamonds means you have to find 3 entries to your hand before drawing trumps.

So claiming that this line is safer than gnasher's line is an illusion.

 

Rainer Herrmann

 

I have two heart ruffs and the space ace, so it needs only the red suits to break evenly. There are also extra chance if an honour comes down in either red suit.

[rhm]

I have two heart ruffs and the space ace, so it needs only the red suits to break evenly. There are also extra chance if an honour comes down in either red suit.

 

Sure but how does gnasher's line fare then? If 2 hearts ruff stand up his line looks good too and he might make if trumps are 2-2 and LHO has only 2 hearts.

 

Rainer Herrmann

[Yu18772]

Is it reasonable to infer that cashing the ♦A means that LHO thinks his chances for another trick are pretty good? ... and therefore I assign him both the ♥K and ♠Q? In reality I would expect it to mean he has ♣Qxx but of course that makes it hopeless.

 

LHO is a good player, but not expert, RHO is a weaker player among the two, club level team game both vul (IMP).

During the action N skipped diamond control, S still asked aces. A♦ looked more like taking the trick while its still there, than anything else.

 

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[gnasher]

Sure but how does gnasher's line fare then? If 2 hearts ruff stand up his line looks good too and he might make if trumps are 2-2 and LHO has only 2 hearts.

If clubs are 10xx-Q, I'm going to need something else - a squeeze or a spade finesse - whereas Phil isn't. Here are some approximate numbers:

 

I gain against clubs 2-2 (but not xx-Q10) and hearts 2=5 (but not Kx-xxxxx).

(0.4 * 5/6) * (0.15 * 5/7) = 3.6%

 

Phil gains against clubs 10xx-Q and my not being able to get another trick from somewhere. Even on a bad day I should be able to find the extra trick 50% of the time.

(0.5 * 1/8) * 0.5 = 3.1%

 

So I think I come out ahead.

 

(I also gain when Phil gets overruffed in diamonds, which may or may not be possible, depending on the bidding.)

[Yu18772]

Thank you!

...on the actual layout (T-Qxx) everyone goes down :(

I payed Phil's line at the table, and wanted to see if there is something to do about Q 3rd split.

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