Critical MP decision - I

[Phil]

What follows are a list of decisions from a recent tournament. Scoring is MPs.

 

1N is 15-17

 

[hv=pc=n&e=sjt2hk53dt432cq72&n=s74haqj84dkj98c83&d=e&v=n&b=5&a=p1np2dp2hp3nppp]266|200[/hv]

 

1. Your partner leads the ♣J, 3, 2 (encouraging), 5

 

2. ♣4, 8, Q, 6.

 

3. Plug away at clubs or shift to a spade?

[rduran1216]

What follows are a list of decisions from a recent tournament. Scoring is MPs.

 

1N is 15-17

 

[hv=pc=n&e=sjt2hk53dt432cq72&n=s74haqj84dkj98c83&d=e&v=n&b=5&a=p1np2dp2hp3nppp]266|200[/hv]

 

1. Your partner leads the ♣J, 3, 2 (encouraging), 5

 

2. ♣4, 8, Q, 6.

 

3. Plug away at clubs or shift to a spade?

 

clubs. if declarer held up twice with AKxx god bless him. otherwise, we gotta knock the A off and save partner's spade entry

[phil_20686]

Seems obvious that partner has KJTx(x) in clubs. In fact must be only four, partner should continue with the original fourth best in these situations I think, so the four precludes him having five cards.

 

if partner has an ace, he needs a club continuation. if he has K9xx spades he needs the switch now. South could also have A AQ A, which needs a spade switch.

 

The layouts where a spade seems right need him to have two cards in spades, (K9, KQ), whereas the layouts where a club is right only need one. So i will continue clubs.

[kenrexford]

Partner either has KJ104 or KJ1094. With the latter (KJ1094) and the spade Ace, he has an easy play of the club King at trick two. With a desire fora switch and the latter holding, he can play the 9 back, which should also be readable. Thus, the 4 from KJ1094 seems wrong. So, I will assume KJ104 as the starting holding.

 

The question, then, is whether I have to guess or not as to whether the 4 suggests continuing clubs (partner has the spade Ace) or switching to spades (partner has something interesting there, perhaps K-9 or so). I think, however, partner is forced to play the 4 in either situation, as playing the 10 risks blocking the suit (bad when he has the Ace) or promoting the suit (if I am expected to overtake). Plus, he must make my Queen have importance to compel a duck if he wants me in the lead. So, either way, it seems like he is forced to play the 4 and that he started with precisely KJ104.

 

So, what about Declarer? Declarer seems to have 2♥/4♣. He probably is specifically 4-2-3-4. If partner has the Ace or King of spades, Declarer must have the other, plus the diamond Ace, plus both the spade and diamond Queens. Hence, Declarer likely has (in either case the spade 9 unknown):

 

♠AQxx ♥xx ♦AQx ♣A9xx or

♠KQx ♥xx ♦AQx ♣A9xx

 

That gives partner:

 

♠Kxxx ♥xxx ♦xx ♣KJ104 or

♠Axxx ♥xxx ♦xx ♣KJ104

 

I now think this through from Declarer's perspective. If Declarer is looking at the spade King-Queen, he probably will think that the club situation is hopeless anyway and might pop the club Ace at trick two. If he has the spade Ace-Queen, he might see the spade shift as dangerous and thus might pop the club at trick two. If Declarer has the spade 9, he might sense less risk of a switch to spades, however, and duck to ensure the best case against clubs IF he has the spade Ace.

 

So, I think there is a slight inference that Declarer has the spade 9. Accordingly, I will continue clubs.

[quiddity]

I don't think partner needs the ♠9 for a switch. Any holding with ♠K requires a switch.

Still, there are two aces and only one ♠K, so it looks right to continue clubs.

The answer might be different if we thought declarer could bid 1NT with OR without ♦Q in the case where partner has ♠K.

 

edit: if partner has ♠A9 then a switch also works, so that makes it a bit closer.

[phil_20686]

I don't think partner needs the ♠9 for a switch. Any holding with ♠K requires a switch.

 

True, forgot it was MP.

[kayin801]

I can't think of a hand where continuing clubs is a huge improvement over switching to spades, so I guess I'll switch to spades. Not sure why partner would choose to lead from KJ10x instead of Hxxx on this auction though.

 

Edit: if declarer has the spade 9 aren't we taking a max of 9 tricks almost all the time anyway?

[kenrexford]

I can't think of a hand where continuing clubs is a huge improvement over switching to spades, so I guess I'll switch to spades. Not sure why partner would choose to lead from KJ10x instead of Hxxx on this auction though.

 

Edit: if declarer has the spade 9 aren't we taking a max of 9 tricks almost all the time anyway?

 

I doubt that we can take 9 tricks.

Assuming that you mean that Declarer gets 9 tricks no matter what if he has the spade 9, that is not accurate. If Declarer lacks the spade Ace, a club continuation means that we take 5 tricks.

[wank]

if partner has the ace of spades it doesn't matter what we do, assuming we'd be switching to a low spade.

 

if partner has the ace of diamonds we need to play a club.

 

if partner has the king of spades we need to play a spade in theory, but it may not matter, as declarer will be tempted to finesse at anyway if he can see the minority playing in hearts are making more tricks which seems likely or because he needs a 2nd spade stop when hearts are 4-2.

 

 

so mark me down for a club.

[quiddity]

That's true.. a low spade is very likely to work even when declarer has KQ9x. So we need a switch if partner has ♠K and a club if he has ♦A, and both will work if he has ♠A. That's 50/50. And by switching we also have the chance that declarer isn't sharp enough to knock out ♦A before taking the heart finesse. Maybe the low spade switch is right after all.

[Phil]

[hv=pc=n&s=sk963ht62d76ckjt4&w=s74haqj84dkj98c83&n=sjt2hk53dt432cq72&e=saq85h97daq5ca965&d=n&v=n&b=5&a=p1np2dp2hp3nppp]399|300[/hv]

 

I continued clubs on the same reasoning as younger Phil. The last thing I wanted to do was release partner's club entry. Yet, if partner has the ♠A, returning a low spade is just as good. If partner has K-empty 4th of spades, we've at worst traded tricks, but if declarer misguesses and finesses the spade, the spade has gained.

 

Where the spade works terribly is when declarer has a hand like AKQx xx Qxx Axxx, but doesn't that feel rather specific?

 

Partner made a great lead with the club, so you're already slated for a 38 (75 top) for -430. -400 is a 58 and setting the hand one is a 73.

[gnasher]

Where the spade works terribly is when declarer has a hand like AKQx xx Qxx Axxx, but doesn't that feel rather specific?

Does a spade work terribly? We can duck the first heart, and if declarer next plays a diamond partner should duck that too. Unless declarer plays with second sight, we should have time to switch back to clubs.

[kenrexford]

This is the kind of problem that drives me nuts.

 

I mean, think about the actual layout from Declarer's perspective. When RHO plays the club Queen at trick two, it seems like Declarer should win the Ace in that layout. Winning means that Declarer has no risk of an immediate spade switch, which in the actual layout is fatal, as the contract will be set. If Declarer instead just wins the Ace of Clubs and hooks the heart, then 3NT is making no matter what when hearts split 3-3, and possibly many overtricks.

 

Thus, the line that actually works only works with the actual layout because Declarer makes a play that makes no sense to me.

[Phil]

Does a spade work terribly? We can duck the first heart, and if declarer next plays a diamond partner should duck that too. Unless declarer plays with second sight, we should have time to switch back to clubs.

 

Good point, I suppose 3-4 in the pointeds is a better illustration. Surely, declarer wants to drive out the entry to the clubs first before taking the heart finesse into the safe hand.

 

But now, the hand is very specific, with partner having exactly 9xxxx xxx A KJT4. In addition, a club lead looks strange with this hand, although I suspect some would choose it.