A Judgement Call

[jdeegan]

:P IMP pairs scoring. Both sides vul. LHO deals and passes. Partner, an expert, bids 3♥. RHO passes. Opponents are competent. Do you bid or pass?

 

You hold:

 

Q8652

J102

Q93

106

[Antrax]

It depends on what I'm holding.

 

[edit]

People here are no fun, editing to ruin jokes, even bad ones, is unkind :(

[ahydra]

My hand is worth zero tricks. Let them take the cold game, it's cheaper than 800.

 

ahydra

[mr1303]

Yeah, I pass too. Partner has made life difficult by pre-empting them.

 

By bidding 4H, I expect that to go for 800 if they double, and if I force them to bid 5 of a minor, that might be more likely to get a raise to 6 than if they can bid 4 of a minor (depending on their methods).

 

Some sort of puerile psychic manoeuvre should get what it deserves here.

[Cyberyeti]

Actually you only have no tricks if parner doesn't have 3 or 4 clubs. ♥AKxxxxx and ♣xxx is 8 tricks although you have no defence to 5m.

 

What are the upsides of bidding ? if opps sell out you might only go for 500, they might play in spades which could be less than ideal for them (give the 4th hand a big 3244 opposite a 41??). The downside is that you could easily be going for 800 if partner has a doubleton club.

 

Unless you're swinging, pass.

[the hog]

I agree with mr1303. Bidding will only help them to diagnose the 30 point deck. Pass and congratulate partner on his well judged pre empt. Bidding is really silly on this.

[gnasher]

I'd raise to 4♥. It's quite likely that they can make slam, so I don't want to allow them space to show extra values by jumping. For example, they're much more likely to bid slam after

3

♥

pass pass dbl

pass 5

♣

than after

3

♥

pass 4

♥

dbl

pass 5

♣

If we end up going for 800, it's not the end of the world - at worst it's only 4 out, and it may be 13 in.

[WellSpyder]

I'd raise to 4♥. It's quite likely that they can make slam, so I don't want to allow them space to show extra values by jumping. For example, they're much more likely to bid slam after

3

♥

pass pass dbl

pass 5

♣

than after

3

♥

pass 4

♥

dbl

pass 5

♣

If we end up going for 800, it's not the end of the world - at worst it's only 4 out, and it may be 13 in.

The relevant auctions here, though, aren't the ones you have given, but ones with a pass before the 3♥ opening. How often do you find opponents who have both passed on the first round of bidding then managing to bid a slam? Of course it happens, but I'm not convinced it happens often enough to be worth worrying about.

[gnasher]

The relevant auctions here, though, aren't the ones you have given, but ones with a pass before the 3♥ opening. How often do you find opponents who have both passed on the first round of bidding then managing to bid a slam? Of course it happens, but I'm not convinced it happens often enough to be worth worrying about.

Good point - I hadn't noticed the bit about LHO passing.

 

Talking of things that don't happen very often, it seems very unlikely that we'd actually have this hand on the given auction.

[billw55]

Obvious pass, and I expect to partner to play there.

 

 

The conditions suggest a BBO pickup game. Considering this, the auction, and the cards I am looking at, my guess is partner actually had a good hand.

 

[Phil]

Good point - I hadn't noticed the bit about LHO passing.

 

Talking of things that don't happen very often, it seems very unlikely that we'd actually have this hand on the given auction.

 

The only layout that remotely makes sense is something like this:

 

[hv=pc=n&s=sq8753hjt2dq93ct6&w=skjt6h9dkt7cqj542&n=s94hakq8654d42c83&e=sa2h73daj865cak97&d=w&v=0&b=8&a=p3hp]399|300[/hv]

 

If we pass, LHO has an automatic double. I doubt they can reach 6m after this start but who knows. If I raise to 4♥, I doubt either of my opponents do anything but pass.

[billw55]

The only layout that remotely makes sense is something like this:

 

...

 

If we pass, LHO has an automatic double. I doubt they can reach 6m after this start but who knows. If I raise to 4♥, I doubt either of my opponents do anything but pass.

Perhaps. But at the table, I would not risk a probable -800 on the assumption that opponents can both bid and make 6m. Add in the very real chance that they won't even find 5m .. no way I am bidding here.

[han]

The only layout that remotely makes sense is something like this:

 

[hv=pc=n&s=sq8753hjt2dq93ct6&w=skjt6h9dkt7cqj542&n=s94hakq8654d42c83&e=sa2h73daj865cak97&d=w&v=0&b=8&a=p3hp]399|300[/hv]

 

If we pass, LHO has an automatic double. I doubt they can reach 6m after this start but who knows. If I raise to 4♥, I doubt either of my opponents do anything but pass.

 

 

Rho might well double 4H holding A A AK.

[Cyberyeti]

deleted

[Cyberyeti]

Rho might well double 4H holding A A AK.

Not quite sure what this shows having passed over 3♥ opposite a passed partner ? Is it outright pens ?

[Phil]

Not quite sure what this shows having passed over 3♥ opposite a passed partner ? Is it outright pens ?

 

Vul I would expect this to be penalties. NV, I would expect a light takeout.

 

I do not know if this is standard.

[Cyberyeti]

Vul I would expect this to be penalties. NV, I would expect a light takeout.

 

I do not know if this is standard.

Wouldn't have this problem anyway, would have opened the W hand which despite being an aceless 10, with all the points in the long suits and a couple of 10s under higher hons I rate as a decent 11.

 

Light takeout NV for P-3♥-P-4♥-P-P-X deserves to dial a large number where S has a huge hand without all that many hearts and is bidding 4♥ to make. I think it probably should be pens at all vuls when pd is a passed hand.

[Phil]

Not quite sure what this shows having passed over 3♥ opposite a passed partner ? Is it outright pens ?

 

Light takeout NV for P-3♥-P-4♥-P-P-X deserves to dial a large number where S has a huge hand without all that many hearts and is bidding 4♥ to make. I think it probably should be pens at all vuls when pd is a passed hand.

 

So we've gone from "I don't know" to an entrenched opinion within a 74 minute period.

[ggwhiz]

Pards pre-empt has done it's job.

 

If we don't tip them off as to our fit the guy with the doubleton (likely rho) could well have a different fit.

 

Say they have a stopper, pard (and I with my queens) may have an entry that thunders a 3nt contract.

 

Say they have no stopper, 5 of a minor might look too risky if we don't tell them their pard has a stiff. Lho will often have a tip top max for a passed hand and rho will be guessing.

[Cyberyeti]

So we've gone from "I don't know" to an entrenched opinion within a 74 minute period.

No, I was swinging between full strength minor oriented T/O ie t/o but don't bid spades without a real load of them, I passed because I didn't want to hear spades over a double, and full blown pens.

[gszes]

hmmmmmmmmmmmm i have way more information than anyone else at the table

and NOONE has a clue what i am doing or why. The opps points rate to be evenly divided

and it is extremely unlikely either opp will have anything close to the values needed to x my

 

 

4h

 

bid. Yes my hand is gross but there is no reason either opps would think its as bad as it is.

The odds of my going -800 are ethereal. Passing leaves the oppps a ton more room to find

their minor suit fit. Dont just look at your cards and decide use the table clues as well.

[the hog]

hmmmmmmmmmmmm i have way more information than anyone else at the table

and NOONE has a clue what i am doing or why. The opps points rate to be evenly divided

and it is extremely unlikely either opp will have anything close to the values needed to x my

 

 

4h

 

bid. Yes my hand is gross but there is no reason either opps would think its as bad as it is.

The odds of my going -800 are ethereal. Passing leaves the oppps a ton more room to find

their minor suit fit. Dont just look at your cards and decide use the table clues as well.

 

I am curious as to why you make gross bids?

[ggwhiz]

hmmmmmmmmmmmm i have way more information than anyone else at the table

and NOONE has a clue what i am doing or why. The opps points rate to be evenly divided

and it is extremely unlikely either opp will have anything close to the values needed to x my

 

 

4h

 

bid. Yes my hand is gross but there is no reason either opps would think its as bad as it is.

The odds of my going -800 are ethereal. Passing leaves the oppps a ton more room to find

their minor suit fit. Dont just look at your cards and decide use the table clues as well.

 

Given the values you know they have (but they don't have a handle on) you just forced them to double you or bid a game you probably can't beat. You did kibosh any slam bid by them but they already said they weren't bidding it by their previous (in)action.

 

My partners don't open 3♥ with hands good enough to open 1♥.

[gszes]

I am curious as to why you make gross bids?

 

my apologies for being unclear----the range of my hand for 4h

can be anywhere from the given hand (or maybe somewhat worse)

up to maybe

 

KQJx

K

KQJx

KQJx

 

 

bidding 4h here is a "bluff" but unlike obvious preemptive raises

this one can be made with an extremely strong hand with no slam

interest. The bluff tries to take advantage of the opps lack of

knowledge (due to thier passes) and tries to keep them from

finding their optimum spot. Passing with the weaker hands merely

encourages lho to balance when reasonable since the risk factor

is much lower than it is over 4h.

 

Like all bluffs sometimes the opps will call the bluff but most of the time

their hearing each other pass will act as a strong deterrent to further

bidding on their part for fear we have the strongest hand at the table.

[the hog]

NOONE has a clue what i am doing or why.

 

 

 

Well that statement is certainly true!