Matchpoints decision

[Phil352]

Playing in the club last night the following hand came up:

 

[hv=pc=n&s=sk5hak963dkj875c7&n=s987hjt54dqtcaqt8&d=s&v=0&b=11&a=1hp2np3dp3hp4hppp]266|200[/hv]

 

Matchpoints, Spots in hearts/diamonds are approximate

 

West leads the 5♣

 

Now you're already in a thin game by club standards but I'd anticipate about 1/2 to 2/3 the room will be in it. Was it unreasonable to put the Q in at trick one? Playing for an overtrick if the club finesse is right and trumps are 2-2 or for my 10 if trumps do break badly? Am I missing something really obvious?

[the_clown]

I would rather try to ruff out Kxx or Jxx of ♣. I still have the chance that the K♠ is on or that E has no entry.

[phil_20686]

Its not right to hook.

(1) You might go off even with the spade ace onside.

(2) You have very good chances of 11 anyway. If either the spade ace is with east or the diamond ace is with west, you will only lose two tricks outside of trumps, as east cannot get on lead to lead a spade through. You can combine this with some ruffs in clubs.

 

Best line probably rise, ruff a club cash the AK of hearts and play a diamond up. Ruffing a club early has some down side though, you might go off (extra) with the trumps 4-0 on some layouts, as you might lose the ability to ruff the third round of spades.

[wanoff]

You've almost answered your own question. Being booked for a 67-75% score most of the time, it can't be right to take a less than 50/50 shot to only slightly improve this score, whilst risking the lot.

Less than 50/50 because some Wests would prefer to lead from QS or JS than from KC.

Only slight improvement to your score because as noted before, normal play will result in 11 tricks anyway about 37% of the time.

[SteveMoe]

Thin games mean play safely. East is the Danger Hand. The ♣ finesse risks putting East on lead. Not a good idea. We want the ♦A to be with West. I would finesse in trumps to guard against x=Qxx, then plan to play on ♦s to set up a spade ruff in dummy. The are some additional chances trying to ruff out the ♣K along the way but they are small.