How did Rodwell find the club Ten?

[inquiry]

[hv=lin=pn|Rodwell,Fantoni,Meckstroth,Nunes|rh||ah|Board 22|md|1S64HKQ43DAJT9CQ62,ST73HA7D87432CK8,SK852HJ2DKQ5CAJ94,SAQJ9HT9865D6C73

|sv|n|mb|1dp1sp1np3nppp|pc|d8|pc|d5|pc|d6|pc|dj|pg||pc|cq|pc|ck|pc|ca|pc|c7|pg||pc|hj|pc|hT|pc|h4|pc|h7|pg||pc|h2|pc|h8|pc|hk|pc|ha|pg||pc|st|pc|s2|pc|s9|pc|s4|pg||pc|s7|pc|s8|pc|sj|pc|s6|pg||pc|h6|pc|hQ|PC|D2|PC|S5|PG||PC|DT|PC|D4|PC|DQ|PC|C3|PG||PC|DK|PC|SQ|PC|DA|PC|D3|PG||PC|D9|PC|D7|PC|sk|PC|H5|PG||pc|dk|pc|sq|pc|da|pc|d4|pg||pc|d9|pc|d7|pc|sk|pc|h5|pg||PC|C9|PC|C8|]400|300|First, there are only 12 cards in the East/West hands. This is intentional. The missing cards are the ♣10 and ♣5.

 

Many forum readers no doubt watched this hand played live on vugraph. The three card ending from this hand is shown below. You can follow the play to get to the three card ending by pressing next in this movie.

[/hv]

 

[hv=pc=n&s=sh3dc62&n=shdcj94]133|200|Rodwell lead the ♣6 and West played the ♣8. At this point, West holds one more club (the 10 or 5) and East holds one more club (the 10 or 5), plus a spade and a heart.

 

West started with 3=2=5=3 distribution and East with 4=6=1=3.

 

Rodwell can play West for the ♣10 by inserting the ♣9 or East for the ♣10 by going up with the ♣J.

 

Other relevant info is West had the ♣K (you can follow the early play in the diagram at the top of the post). It does seem like vacant space favors East having the ♣10, or does it?[/hv]

[SteveMoe]

On the surface, finessing the 10 seems right. I'm paying off to East who would discard to a bare ♣10. Not sure that is as likely as 2 discards from ♣753. Also the 5&8 are equals, so there is likely a restricted choice argument that the ♣8 halves the chance the 5 is with West. Full disclosure - I did not see this hand played.

[inquiry]

On the surface, finessing the 10 seems right. I'm paying off to East who would discard to a bare ♣10. Not sure that is as likely as 2 discards from ♣753. Also the 5&8 are equals, so there is likely a restricted choice argument that the ♣8 halves the chance the 5 is with West. Full disclosure - I did not see this hand played.

 

East had to come down to 3 cards, from

 

♣?x ♥A ♠A (heart was high spot, not ace, the ? is an "x" or "10" of clubs).

 

If he discards heart, rodwell's heart is good. If he discards the spade ace, he is thrown in with the heart and forced to lead a club allowing two necessary tricks to make, no matter who had the ten.

[SteveMoe]

True enough - but what about "restricted choice" for 5&8 by West??

[inquiry]

True enough - but what about "restricted choice" for 5&8 by West??

 

Well, I don't know how he got it right. I don't understand how restricted choice would apply here. Perhaps you could explain the implications of restricted choice in this situation, and if West play of the 8 has implications for the 5, what implications did East's discard of the 7 from possible 7 & 5 (or 10 & 7)?

[sfi]

It seems right to play for the drop, but I'm not totally convinced. My thinking is as follows:

 

If East holds 753, then there are six ways for East to play the clubs if there are no signalling implications, while West only has one way to play from KT8.

 

If East holds T73, he has two ways to play them while West also has two ways to play with K85 - a total of four.

 

So it seems to me that the odds are 3-2 in favour of the drop.

 

All this assumes that the opponents are good enough to work out the situation (which doesn't seem like too much of a stretch in this case) and there is no need to signal. If we read the C7 as showing spades, then the odds shift to 1-1 if East would always play the 7 at trick two or 2-1 in favour of the drop if East would just avoid playing the C3 to send that message.

[aguahombre]

We shouldn't mention the senior moment at the other table.

[Cyberyeti]

Can you 100% rule out Fantoni having swindled you from ♠ A10xx ?

 

I think the play goes the same way on both holdings, the hand is an open book for the defence from a fairly early stage. Not sure if restricted choice really applies here, I think it's just a 50/50 guess.

[gnasher]

It seems right to play for the drop, but I'm not totally convinced. My thinking is as follows:

 

If East holds 753, then there are six ways for East to play the clubs if there are no signalling implications, while West only has one way to play from KT8.

 

If East holds T73, he has two ways to play them while West also has two ways to play with K85 - a total of four.

 

So it seems to me that the odds are 3-2 in favour of the drop.

Another way to look at this is to treat all the small cards as identical. Assume that we're comparing K10x-xxx with Kxx-10xx. There are 4 of the first and 6 of the second.

 

All this assumes that the opponents are good enough to work out the situation (which doesn't seem like too much of a stretch in this case) and there is no need to signal. If we read the C7 as showing spades, then the odds shift to 1-1 if East would always play the 7 at trick two or 2-1 in favour of the drop if East would just avoid playing the C3 to send that message.

I can't believe anyone would give count here. ♣7 looks like either Reverse Smith (which they do play) or suit-preference for spades. Assuming he was signalling, I expect he'd signal with his highest spot card. With 752 only a miser would pay the middle one. With 872 it's natural to play the highest, but maybe he would choose randomly between the 8 and the 7.

 

If we assume that 7 is East's highest spot, there are two ways he can have 107x and one way he can have 7xx, so I think the odds still favour the drop.

 

If we think East would treat the 8 and 7 as equals and that West would play his spots in a way that gives no extra information (an unrealistic assumption), there are four ways East can have 10Sx, one way he can have 10SS, two ways he can have SSx, and two ways he can have Sxx. Still prefer the drop.

 

Maybe you had to be there. Being Rodwell might help too.

Edited July 23, 2012 by gnasher

[gnasher]

Can you 100% rule out Fantoni having swindled you from ♠ A10xx ?

Once you decide to play a club, you have given up on that possibility - RHO would have ♣10x and a heart winner left.

 

But anyway, I think you can rule it out. Fantoni is just a very good player, not a demigod, and they don't show him the hand records in advance.

[sfi]

If we assume that 7 is East's highest spot, there are two ways he can have 107x and one way he can have 7xx, so I think the odds still favour the drop.

 

But there are two ways that West can play their spots with K85 in the first instance, which is where restricted choice comes into it.

[rhm]

It seems to me the drop must be better.

We know the clubs are 3-3 and West has the ♣K, the only forced card on the club play.

Of the remaining 5 cards in clubs it is 60% already that East will hold the ♣T

Furthermore East club discard is restricted choice.

If East has the ♣T his choice was restricted, when he discarded the ♣3.

 

If these arguments are correct the drop is a heavy favorite.

 

A further argument in favor of the drop, though much weaker, is that the drop goes down one less if wrong.

Putting any faith in club signals seems to me misguided here.

 

Rainer Herrmann

[ritong]

hi guys

 

are we 100% sure east has four spades and not five?

[ritong]

imho, answer is : we are 95% sure.. east might have concealed the spade 3 from the start, seeing the whole thing coming and simulating club 10xx- that would be a very deep play, for sure- now, it might be an answer to ben's question: rodwell finessed because it was possible that east was out of clubs.

[rhm]

imho, answer is : we are 95% sure.. east might have concealed the spade 3 from the start, seeing the whole thing coming and simulating club 10xx- that would be a very deep play, for sure- now, it might be an answer to ben's question: rodwell finessed because it was possible that east was out of clubs.

With ♠AQJ93 East would probably double for the lead. It would have been a good double even on the actual deal.

 

Rainer Herrmann

[phil_20686]

Maybe the hand was not such an open book to east. When east pitched a club, he would have been letting it through from Txx if south had had only three diamonds. Maybe rodwell judged this was an unlikely play from a WC defender when he has an easy heart pitch. If south was 3433 east could have looked pretty absurd.

 

Its a little tenuous.

[TimG]

Didn't declarer at the other table also score his last two tricks with the 9 and then J of clubs? The play to that point was a little different, but I think the ending was essentially the same.

[rhm]

Maybe the hand was not such an open book to east. When east pitched a club, he would have been letting it through from Txx if south had had only three diamonds. Maybe rodwell judged this was an unlikely play from a WC defender when he has an easy heart pitch. If south was 3433 east could have looked pretty absurd.

 

Its a little tenuous.

I do not know the actual deal and play, but I presume the ♦8 lead was top of nothing and denied the ♦9, in which case declarer's diamonds ♦AJT9 were pretty marked at trick one but certainly at the time of the club discard.

 

Rainer Herrmann

[phil_20686]

I do not know the actual deal and play, but I presume the ♦8 lead was top of nothing and denied the ♦9, in which case declarer's diamonds ♦AJT9 were pretty marked at trick one but certainly at the time of the club discard.

 

Rainer Herrmann

 

use the next button to see the play. There are any number of ways that rho can know the exact layout, but if your partner is famous for intelligent falsecards in defence, maybe you have to cater for him not leading/carding according to agreement.

[TWO4BRIDGE]

Maybe the hand was not such an open book to east. When east pitched a club, he would have been letting it through from Txx if south had had only three diamonds. Maybe Rodwell judged this was an unlikely play from a WC defender when he has an easy heart pitch. If south was 3433 east could have looked pretty absurd.

 

Its a little tenuous.

I too think the ♣3 discard by East was unusual ( at trick 7 trick 8 ) when East had a "safe" discard of one of the ♥.

Of course the lead of the ♦K next ( trick 8 trick 9 ) "forces" East to then discard a ♣ coming down to the 3 card ending . EDIT: This is where East discards the ♠Q, now coming down to 4 cards which could be:

♠A

♥9

♣10 x

 

Now on trick 10, Declarer leading the good ♦9, and discarding the ♠K, East could safely

discard the ♠Ace ( if he has ♣10 x; but since he doesn't discard the ♠Ace but a ♣ instead, that seems to be the clue. [ End of EDIT ] .

 

So, Rodwell's thinking goes: Which discard scenario is more likely for East holding the stiff ♣10.

 

I think I remember watching this hand ( can't remember one day from the next ) and was amazed he found the ♣10.

Edited July 23, 2012 by TWO4BRIDGE

[inquiry]

imho, answer is : we are 95% sure.. east might have concealed the spade 3 from the start, seeing the whole thing coming and simulating club 10xx- that would be a very deep play, for sure- now, it might be an answer to ben's question: rodwell finessed because it was possible that east was out of clubs.

 

Couldn't he win the jack in this case, and play a low club back to his six? I mean the ♣8 is gone, the ♣7 is gone, so the six forces the ten? I think the carding in clubs alone remove this possibility. Then there is the lack of the double of 3NT.

[inquiry]

I too think the ♣3 discard by East was unusual ( at trick 7 ) when East had a "safe" discard of one of the ♥.

Of course the lead of the ♦K next ( trick 8 ) "forces" East to then discard a ♣ coming down to the 3 card ending .

So, Rodwell's thinking goes: Which discard scenario is more likely for East holding the stiff ♣10.

 

I think I remember watching this hand ( can't remember one day from the next ) and was amazed he found the ♣10.

 

I am thinking along these lines as well, but with an opposite view.

 

At trick 7, NUNES sees 8 tricks for Rodwell. 4♦ (opening lead marks south with aj109), 2♥, 2♣. If south has the ♣10, hand is over. So he mentally places that card with West. Now he has to create an image that he does hold the ♣10. How would you do it against a duffer? You would pitch winners to hold onto clubs. But then Rodwell will endplay you, but not a duffer. How would you play against an advanced player? You would discard the ♠Q, then a heart, finally a club (and if you were a coffeehouser, you would pitch that club verrrrrrry slowly.

 

But you are playing against one of the best card readers it becomes a game of psychology. If East had the ♣10, he would want to discard as if he didn't. But he knows that Rodwell knows, he is capable of discarding like he didn't have the club ten, so if he discarded like he didn't have it, he would have it. So.... well you get the idea that becomes a spy-vs-spy situation (forgive the MAD magazine reference).

 

So what I thought is you would go back to the "correct" line of play, and play for the drop (the math is simple, and favors the drop. There are three "slots" in Eas't clubs that can be the "ten", and only two in West's hand. Without fancy math, and ignoring the actual spot cards played (treating 8753 as true equals) here are the combinations...

 

West with the ten: KT3, KT5, KT7, KT8 (this is C(4,1) = 4)

 

East with the ten: K87, K85, K83, K75, K73, K53 (this is C(4,2) = 6).

 

As you can see, there are six combinations where East has the 10 to four where West has the ten: that is 6 to 4 or 3 to 2 (the number of vacant spaces. In a spy-vs-spy situation based upon carding, I would have thought Eric would go with the percentage play and play for the drop (so did all the commentator). So when he finessed the ten after a lot of thought, I knew there had to be something we all missed. I still don't know what it is, but I am certain it is there. Whatever the clue was, it doesn't seem to be related to West's carding. His one discard was an honest and sensible diamond two.

[keylime]

My gut feeling is that is was a table feel decision, based on the potential that he felt he was behind to try for any swing.

[quiddity]

But there are two ways that West can play their spots with K85 in the first instance, which is where restricted choice comes into it.

 

West is marked with the 8 after East signals with the 7 on the first round, so he is just playing the card he is known to hold.

[inquiry]

My gut feeling is that is was a table feel decision, based on the potential that he felt he was behind to try for any swing.

 

This was board 22 of a 64 board match (assuming no board thrown out like they did stupidly in the semi-finals). At this time, the match was very tight. So surely this was not a state-of-the-match play. The timing of the play (up to which club to play from dummy) seemed normal to me. It is true, both defenders would quickly determine the possession of the ♣10 was key to the hand, surely no later than when the ♥A won the fourth trick. I make some assumptions here... The ♦8 was top of nothing, the ♣7 was count, and the ♥T was probably s/p for spades, but south must have ♥Q for continuing hearts.