Lead Problem

[rogerclee]

Third Seat, P 1N P 3N AP

 

Axx J9x ATxx JTx

[Hanoi5]

♥9

 

A sim would be nice.

[kfay]

4th from longest and strongest, imo.

 

I don't see how a passive round-suit lead will do anything but hurt us. If partner has the goods in those suits to get a set then declarer can most likely foil our plans with a holdup anyway. It seems we're just more likely to just be skewering a frozen suit.

 

Choosing between the pointeds, the 10 and the 4th card bolster the choice for a diamond. The auction doesn't worry me.

[Fluffy]

at MPs I wouldn´t lead a diamond, a club to be passive. At IMPs club would be my last option though, diamond, hearts or even spades could be best. I´d go with a spade.

[wclass___]

♣Jhttp://www.bridgebase.com/forums/public/style_emoticons/default/rolleyes.gif

[chasetb]

I'm assuming this is IMPs, though I probably wouldn't change my answer even at MPs. I lead a low Spade, because partner can easily have two Queens and length in our suit, and otherwise we likely aren't setting them.

[mike777]

low d.

[MrAce]

♣J

[Mbodell]

What constraints to size and shape would you put on the opps hands for a simulation? What about on partner who passed in first seat (no weak 2 in a major?)?

 

I suspect, having recently been reading the new book on opening leads against nt, that the best double dummy after the opening lead simulated lead is the spade A.

[SteveMoe]

Looks like we're reading "Winning Notrump Leads" by Bird & Anthias.

Lots of sim hands document the major suit bias for the 1N-3N auction.

♠A lead works when holding supporting honor.

Suspect ♥9 would be the winner on this hand, but likely not by much.

Good point that partner's pass reduces bias toward Major Suit lead from shortness.

However our HCP suggest partner had nothing to say even with a 6-card major.

 

No hand in the book is a close match, but the authors generalize:

"When comparing two major suit leads (or minor suit leads), it is usually

better to lead from two low or three low rather than low from 4 cards

headed by one or two honors. Leads from a major suit doubleton fare

surprisingly well because partner is likely ot hold at least 5 cards opposite."

 

Some useful expectations tables:

West Suit Length: 1--------2--------3-------4-------5-------6

East Length ♥/♠: 5.4-----4.7-----4.0-----3.3-----2.6-----2.0

East Length ♣/♦: 3.8-----3.3-----2.9-----2.4-----2.0-----1.6

[mike777]

No hand in the book is a close match, but the authors generalize

 

 

 

thanks for your post....interesting

[MrAce]

I didnt read that book, but i doubt it would convince me in anyway to lead my ♠A from Axx unless bidding suggests that they are bidding 3 nt due to a long suit. Sorry i just cant see myself banging down unprotected Ace from Axx to collect air from opponents, especially when the expected shapes are balanced vs balanced most of the time in this auction.

[karlson]

I'm sure it's been written before, but much of the reason that ace leads seem to work so well double dummy is that you always get to switch to the right suit at trick 2, which is by no means guaranteed single-dummy.

 

I'd lead the ♣J on this hand.

[nigel_k]

♠A is probably the best choice as an attacking lead. It needs Kxxxx with partner, or maybe Qxxxx with one opponent having Kx. Other leads need more than that to produce five tricks.

 

But I would try to go passive here and lead a club.

[Mbodell]

I'm sure it's been written before, but much of the reason that ace leads seem to work so well double dummy is that you always get to switch to the right suit at trick 2, which is by no means guaranteed single-dummy.

 

I'd lead the ♣J on this hand.

 

Yes, the book acknowledges this, but isn't totally convincing on this point. But it comes in to play with double dummy analysis on non-ace leads too. Sometimes leading a non-standard suit works well because partner figures out to attack declarer in your suit where at the table that would be hard to find.

[keylime]

I'm old school. Goren wrote a long time ago that 1N-3N was a spade lead unless something was clearcut. So, low spade for me.

[phil_20686]

4th from longest and strongest, imo.

 

I don't see how a passive round-suit lead will do anything but hurt us. If partner has the goods in those suits to get a set then declarer can most likely foil our plans with a holdup anyway. It seems we're just more likely to just be skewering a frozen suit.

 

Choosing between the pointeds, the 10 and the 4th card bolster the choice for a diamond. The auction doesn't worry me.

 

This assumes that declarer has nine tricks. A fair amount of the time dummy goes down with a 4333 hand with scattered values, and you just have to avoid giving anythign away. Obviously a club will hurt if it is right to go offensive, but on this hand passive is likely to work just as well, and since our attacking leads arent very tasty, and our passive leads are quite tasty, it seems right to go passive. Times a hundred at MP.

 

So club J for me.

[Phil]

Partner will have about 0-6, and usually 4-5 or so. Responder usually won't have a four or five card major, but more and more I see random jumps to 3N with a scattered balanced 9 or 10 with a major. However, if we are hoping for a doubleton in dummy, it will more likely be a major instead of a minor.

 

Its hard to see how we can beat this hand when partner has 0-1 points.

 

When partner has 2-3, we really need a long suit from him. (K)Qxxxx of spades is one possibility, but Qxxxx of clubs doesn't help since declarer can lay off once. Also note that whatever clubs and hearts are fairly even, since both usually need a T/9 kicker from partner.

 

When partner has 4-6, we might be beating this simply by taking our tricks. We have some useful intermediates.

 

From worst to first:

 

E. ♦. This rates to blow a trick a lot even if we can get the suit going, so its break even at best.

 

D. Low heart. Even if we catch partner with a great holding - Q8xxx, we might be blocking the suit in the process.

 

C. Heart J (and similarly 9). Works to unblock and is successful when partner has Qxxxx, and declarer H-x.

 

B. ♠. Hard to tell if the Ace is best or a small one. Partner should realize the importance of ducking with K or Qxxxx when dummy hits with 3, but the Ace might remind him to on the 1st round.

 

A. ♣. Seems to require the least, and also works in a lot of cases where we need to stay passive and partner has max values.

[JLOGIC]

Club is very obviously the 4th best suit

[pigpenz]

I ran a sim

game west 14-17 3rd seat

2-5 majors

 

2-6 minors

 

east

10-11 hcp

4333

3433

 

2-3s

2-3h

2-6d

2-6c

 

 

 

created 500 deals

following shows number of deals where this card is best lead

if contract makes all cards should be equal(make that note)

I can run the simulator so that only best lead to set contract shows up

also spot cards come into play, original post was xxx

 

3NT makes 66% of time

a♠335

7♠340

6♠340

j♥321

9♥334

6♥334

a♦283

10♦242

6♦298

5♦298

j♣323

10♣323

6♣310

[phil_20686]

Club is very obviously the 4th best suit

 

Yes, but he wanted to know about the best lead. :)

[dburn]

The truth, as anyone who has played bridge for any length of time will tell you, is that if you lead a club dummy will have ♣Q98x and declarer ace third. If you don't, they won't.

 

If you don't lead a diamond, declarer will run four heart tricks and five club tricks, while partner had ♦KQxx all the while. If you do, declarer's unsupported ♦K will be his ninth trick.

 

If you lead the nine of hearts, declarer will cover it with the ten from dummy's ♥Q108 and smile at your partner, who has king-low. If you don't lead the nine of hearts, it will transpire that specifically the nine of hearts was the only lead to beat the contract.

 

If you lead a spade, either the ace or a low one, it will turn out that you could have led any of the other ten cards in your hand for a one-trick set. But you didn't.

 

Since you didn't ask, I will tell you anyway - I would lead a low spade, because that seems to require least from partner to enable us to beat the contract even though suits are breaking well for declarer; moreover, a low spade seems to me less likely to blow a trick by force than any other suit. ♠A could work better than a low one in terms of preventing partner from doing something stupid (or something clever slowly, barring me from continuing the suit anyway). If you told me I couldn't lead a spade I would lead a diamond; if you told me I couldn't lead a spade or a diamond I would lead a heart (the nine, just in case).

 

If you told me I had to lead a club, I would join JLOGIC in the bar while you led a club. One of two things would then happen: your club lead would beat the hand and you would play the rest of the match while JLOGIC and I formed a mutual admiration society in the bar; or dummy would have ♣Q98x and declarer ace third. Still, as we took our seats for the rest of the session, JLOGIC and I would be both agreed on the demerits of a club lead and a couple of beers to the good.

[pigpenz]

it seems in bridge there are never any absolutes other than what is right at the time, I guess sort of the Rabbi Rule.

[dburn]

May be worth mentioning that the spot cards were't quoted in the OP, but they might matter. If your spades were, say, A32 and you led the two playing fourth best, partner would not duck his king from king fifth and out (well, give him a round-suit queen to prevent declarer from having nine fast ones) with ♠Jx in the dummy - why should you not have ace fourth? Nor would he duck his queen from queen fifth and out with ♠Kx in the dummy - again, why should you not have ace fourth and declarer have misguessed with ♠Jx? Attitude won't help in this position either; the only thing that will is playing third and low against notrump as well as against suits, and no one plays that. Perhaps I should lead the ace after all (or the eight from ♠A8x like a true Pole, if indeed ♠A8x was what I had).

[JLOGIC]

Yes, but he wanted to know about the best lead. :)

 

I talked about it with him irl already. FWIW I think H>S mainly because the 9 of hearts (Axx Jxx I'd lead a heart). I am not confident about this, a low spade is certainly reasonable, but I did say that double dummy simulations will support SA but that doesn't mean that much. I think either major is quit a bit better than a diamond, and that a club is LOL.

 

There was a hand in the bermuda bowl, I don't remember exactly but it was something like AQx Jx KJxx QTxx, 1N p 3N. Basically some hand where I would not lead either minor or a heart from that suit ever on the auction. I led the SA. This worked well, I could beat it after that lead by finding the right shift, but not surprisingly I did not find the right play. Trick 2 is not just automatic in real life. If you add to that that you are often getting the wrong signal (since the SA from Axx or AQx is not the normal lead, and partner is signalling based on a different holding), you are certainly never getting things right 100 % in real life or close to it.

 

That is one flaw with simulation type ace leads. Also, when declarer is going to play double dummy and guess everything, things are more dire, you need to be very attacking since declarer is just awesome. This is on top of the fact that you will be double dummy at trick 2, so this is magnified. This is what makes leads like 2 small in a minor look alright to gib also, "passive" leads don't pickle partner/give stuff up ever, because declarer is always getting these right. On top of that, partner will never misread the situation if he gets in, he will play perfectly. This is not realistic.

 

IMO the SA is not nearly as good as a low spade in real life on this hand. I would never criticize a low spade or a low heart lead on this hand, the H9 and HJ just suffer from the same things, partner has no chance of knowing what the hell is going on (unless the 9 is your standard lead from this holding), so they are non options for me since I am playing in real life.