15 vs 8-9

[Fluffy]

AQ8xx

xx

A10x

AJ10

 

 

 

 

pass-pass-pass-1SP

pass-2SP-pass-

 

nobody vul IMPS.

 

2SP shows 8-9 HCP with 3 cards or something equivalent with 4

[ArtK78]

Pass.

 

I suspect that the chances of turning a plus into a minus by making a game try on these cards is larger than the chances of reaching and making game.

 

If I were vul, this would be a closer decision.

[Hanoi5]

I'd probably just bid game, but being not Vul I'll give it a try with 3♦.

[mike777]

AQ8xx

xx

A10x

AJ10

 

 

 

 

pass-pass-pass-1SP

pass-2SP-pass-

 

nobody vul IMPS.

 

2SP shows 8-9 HCP with 3 cards or something equivalent with 4

 

 

close but pass if we may assume pard has a 9 loser hand

if you prefer to make a game try, ok.

[inquiry]

I am making a game try, what game try options do you have available?

[the hog]

Pass. Would have opened 1NT of course.

[SteveMoe]

Count this as 16 HCP and 5.5 losers. Worth a 2NT game try (natural, strength, 5332 shape). HCP adjusts 4.5 aces etc. Losers adjust: 2As more than # Queens reduces losers by 1.

[johnu]

I never play that narrow a range, so I didn't have a feel for how good a game would be, so I used Dealmaster Pro to simulate 200 hands with responder having 8-9 HCP, and 3 trumps, 6-8 HCP with 4+ trumps (just guessing what your adjustments may be for 4 trumps), any distribution.

 

Spades

10+ tricks - 56%

9 tricks - 89%

8 tricks - 99%

 

 

NT

9+ tricks 32%

8 tricks 67%

 

If you can show a doubleton heart, it seems worthwhile to make a game try to avoid 4 spades when responder has wasted values in hearts and an 8- count, or possibly to end up in 3NT when responder has hearts well stopped and a maximum.

 

Opposite a more standard wide range 5-9 HCP, 3-4 trumps, I think a game try is warranted:

 

10+ tricks - 47%

9 tricks - 80%

8 tricks - 96%

Edited July 14, 2012 by johnu

[Fluffy]

thx for the analysis john, but there is a small problem because I should had defined better my description, 2♠ will be balanced/semi-balanced and very rarelly have a singleton. Some hands with singleton might upgrade from 6-7, but hands with 9 go into druri, with 8 it will be close.

[Fluffy]

One similar I found yesteday

 

♠Kxx

♥KJxxx

♦Ax

♣Axx

 

1NT-2♣

2♥-3♥

??

 

(15-17 NT)

 

 

For the previous board, game was excellent, and partner had ♥Qx!! He had ♠K109 ♥Qx ♦KJxx ♣98xx, club lead made it very straightforward.

[pirate22]

With the hand shown,-- {7 loser}pards 2spades can be defensive or as stated8/9 points,

 

so opener should bid 3 spades that is asking pard was your 2sp

defensive or you have 8/9 points unable to use LTC.

But if the opener 1spade when his pard bids 2sp the opener

if you agree arrangements, bids another suit 3 any.it means i

Have it or i need help..if pard now bids 3spades u should pass.

But if pard is alert goes to game -end of story.

I rest my case

[kenrexford]

Assuming not opening 1NT with these hand types...

 

A range of 8-9 HCP is presumably intended to describe "constructive," which usually means about 2 1/2 to 3 cover cards. That is how I think about these problems. If partner technically has 8-9 HCP but has quacks, I will club him over the head and discuss logic.

 

So, I will quickly think through scenarios with three Kings.

 

♠♥♦? I expect to lose 1/4 of a club (the double hook is 75%), 1.5 hearts (the heart hook is 50-50), and 1 diamond, for 2.75 losers. I also need hearts 3-2, which seems like a good bet.

 

♠♥♣? I expect to lose 1.5 hearts, 2 diamonds, and .5 clubs, for 4 losers, which is a bad bet, plus I need spades cooperating.

 

♠♦♣? I expect to lose two hearts, one diamond, and .5 clubs, which is a bad bet, and I need spades cooperating.

 

♥♦♣? I expect to lose 1.5 trumps, 1.5 hearts, 1 diamond, and .5 clubs, which is a really bad bet.

 

So, the odds against a game see high. Strangely, I want all Kings except the club King for my best chance, such that a club "Short Suit Game Try" would be my call at IMPs if I played that and wanted to seek game. Weird.

[phil_20686]

My instinct was to pass, but I think a game try might be ok. Bidding game is definitely too much imo. I suspect the DD analysis is overstating things. AJT is a famously good holding for DD analysis, anytime partner has the K that is three tricks in the bag :). Even if partner has a monster hand like KJx xxxx Qxx Kxx, it is a tenuous proposition single dummy. But of course DD you are in a good spot.

 

The second hand seems like an easy raise though.

[655321]

Partner is 8-9, so probably he has a hand ranging from almost worth an invite over a 1NT opening, up to something that would just bid game.

 

This 15 looks like a very fine 15-17 to me, and we have a known fit, so passing seems pretty conservative.

 

Also, at the risk of being clubbed over the head and receiving a lecture on logic, I might mention that even quacks in partners hand could be useful!

[kenrexford]

Partner is 8-9, so probably he has a hand ranging from almost worth an invite over a 1NT opening, up to something that would just bid game.

 

This 15 looks like a very fine 15-17 to me, and we have a known fit, so passing seems pretty conservative.

 

Also, at the risk of being clubbed over the head and receiving a lecture on logic, I might mention that even quacks in partners hand could be useful!

If you tabled AJx-Jxxx-Jxx-Jxx, you would need a helmet.