bad popular game at MPs

[Statto]

Do opps have a reading list attached to their CC? B-)

[EricK]

Do opps have a reading list attached to their CC? B-)

Instead of wasting your time at the start of each round finding out irrelevant stuff like the opponent's NT range etc, you should engage them in conversation about their reading habits. eg ask them about Rodwell. If they mention "The Rodwell Files" then be cautious against them. If they think you're talking about a tennis or basketball player, bid up.

[Finch]

It might be nice to know whether the opponents are advanced enough that you could expect them to be familiar with Bird - Anthias "Winning Notrump Leads", or the article that they wrote in Bridge World. The auction could just as well have been 1N-3N, since north had the opportunity to show a 4 card major and declarer is very unlikely to have 5 card major. That auction was extensively analyzed, and the winning leads from declarer's perspective must be a major, but much less likely 4th here - most certainly not in hearts.

 

If they are likely familiar with Bird - Anthias, there is some reasonable chance the the ♥5 is a doubleton, not 4th. If West were short in spades, on this auction a spade, even A from Ax is the "book" lead. Also W is unlikely to have AKQ, AK, or even KQ in the spade suit. Opponents are 8-7-6-5. The majors seem reasonably likely to be dividing fairly evenly. No preemptive overcall by W, though W could easily be short in hearts and long in spades but holding little in the way of honors.

 

Why not play the 8!H, just to see which of JT96 East has? If W has JT9, then J is probably his best lead. Can East afford to duck? So I think we should at least take a look.

 

Next consider the major splits. You can reasonably consider ♠6-2 and worse as less likely than normal after this auction. ♥ 2-5, or 1-6 is possible, after this lead, (if they have read the book), otherwise, 4-3 heart split odds increase (intuition). That should marginally improve the odds of 3-3 diamond split as well as a 3-2 club split.

 

To me, playing the diamonds first looks best for the reasons mentioned, and looks perhaps to have better percentages than the a priori odds. Nothing about the bidding suggests that the location of the ♣ king is better than 50-50 guess, and you will get no improvement on that guess during the play of the red suits.

 

If it gets to that point, you will have to decide what line is best after 2 discards by each opponent.

 

It's possible to have read the book (or the article) and disagreed with the conclusion.

[Fluffy]

LHO had this time AQxx Jxxx xx xxx

 

He pitched lowest club on third diamond and I decided to play for CK to be offside, so I pitched a club and played a spade myself, LHO won SQ and played a club inmediatelly. I won CA and exited with CJ, RHO cashed his 4th diamond on wich I ptiched another club from dummy and RHO didn´t read the position in the end so I made 4D, 2C, 3H

[phil_20686]

This hand is too hard.

 

If you are going to play diamonds, you should win the first heart in dummy though. That much seems clear. Obviously concealing the heart ace makes it slightly more difficult to find a spade switch, so maybe its right to do that anyway.

 

Winning the heart in dummy and playing a club to hand is likely to work against many poor players: if its on the left they might not contiue spades, poor opponents lead fourth best, and if they didint lead a spade they probably have a holding that you don't lead. If rho has the club K they might well not play it.

 

Cashing diamonds and then taking the club hook is obviously best at imps. But you should 100% win in dummy if you do this , as concealing the heart ace will leave him more in doubt about your spade holding.

 

If you play clubs its probably right to run the 9 rather than the Q. The Q is more `expected' so you might get a better read off leading the 9, which lho might not have thought of already.

 

Too hard.

 

I would have cashed dimaonds and taking the club hook att.