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should I be in slam?


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[hv=d=e&v=n&n=sajt92hjdak632ca2&w=sk86hq976dj5cj987&e=sq5ht8542dt97ckt5&s=s743hak3dq84cq643]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

West North East South

 

 -     -     Pass  Pass

 Pass  1    Pass  2

 Pass  4    Pass  4

 Pass  4NT   Pass  5

 Pass  5    Pass  5

 Pass  Pass  Pass  

 

Hi all,

 

Loads of people bid and made slam in this and I got a -3 imps for my efforts, I am not 100% convinced it is a good slam. So can I have your opinions on my bidding . thx, btw 2 diamonds drury shows 3 spades and 10 - 11 hcp

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The odds for playing the spade suit for four tricks is about 74% and the odds of the diamonds playing for 5 tricks is about 68%, so the slam is about 50%. Perhaps not as good as it first looks.

 

In terms of the bidding North's 4 rebid looks a little strange. I'd have thought either a simple 3 bid (which must be forcing) or a jump to 4 if this shows a 2-suiter would be more normal. I guess North was just cuebidding his lowest control but thin slams, which this one would be with South as a passed hand, are more dependent on shape than controls, so showing 5-5 is better. North still has the strength to bid 5 over the 4 cuebid and will be able to leave the final decision to South.

 

As South has an opening bid in North's eyes, I would expect South to bid the slam given North's strong bidding and excellent diamond holding. However, as the odds show, all decisions are correct :)

 

p

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West North East South

 

 -     -     Pass  Pass

 Pass  1    Pass  2

 Pass  4    Pass  4

 Pass  4NT   Pass  5

 Pass  5    Pass  5

 Pass  Pass  Pass  

OK, I give. Why 2? Does that have a different meaning (besides suit) than 2?

 

And Card...the way I play it, 3 is not forcing, because responder is a passed hand.

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I'm guessing they play 2 way drury with 2 showing a 3 card raise ( I play it the opposite way, with 2 showing 4).

 

If 2 is some sort of limit raise, then not only is 3 forcing, but its a slam try. 4 is a splinter slam try the way I play, not an advance cue bid.

 

Its an OK slam; if you pick up the trump suit, the odds of the diamond suit coming in are slightly better than 68%.

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no not a good slam, consider the entry position and the lack of spade 8 in dummy. say you get a heart lead, you play AK pitching your club and a spade to the jack. it loses, you get a heart back, you ruff and lead a diamond to the queen. now you lead a spade to the ten. Even if it wins, if spades are 4-1 you go down. So you will make in these cases:

 

if diamonds are 3-2 (62 %) AND.

 

Hxx of spades onside. (20.3478 %)

HHxx of spades onside. (8.4783 %)

HHx of spades onside. (10.1739 %)

HH of spades onside. (3.3913 %)

Hx of spades onside. (20.3478 %)

H of spades onside. (5.6522 %)

 

total of spades being "good": 58.2204 %

 

total of both happening: 39.5899 %

 

you also have the added shot of diamonds being 4-1 AND

 

Hxx of spades onside with a 4 card diamond suit. (2.8752 %)

 

This is assuming perfect defense (which means if they have Hx onside in spades and also a stiff diamond, they will pop with their honor on the first round).

 

TOTAL % OF MAKING CONTRACT: 42.6 %

 

bad slam

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