sceptic Posted November 16, 2004 Report Share Posted November 16, 2004 [hv=d=e&v=n&n=sajt92hjdak632ca2&w=sk86hq976dj5cj987&e=sq5ht8542dt97ckt5&s=s743hak3dq84cq643]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv] West North East South - - Pass Pass Pass 1♠ Pass 2♦ Pass 4♣ Pass 4♥ Pass 4NT Pass 5♣ Pass 5♦ Pass 5♠ Pass Pass Pass Hi all, Loads of people bid and made slam in this and I got a -3 imps for my efforts, I am not 100% convinced it is a good slam. So can I have your opinions on my bidding . thx, btw 2 diamonds drury shows 3 spades and 10 - 11 hcp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulg Posted November 16, 2004 Report Share Posted November 16, 2004 The odds for playing the spade suit for four tricks is about 74% and the odds of the diamonds playing for 5 tricks is about 68%, so the slam is about 50%. Perhaps not as good as it first looks. In terms of the bidding North's 4♣ rebid looks a little strange. I'd have thought either a simple 3♦ bid (which must be forcing) or a jump to 4♦ if this shows a 2-suiter would be more normal. I guess North was just cuebidding his lowest control but thin slams, which this one would be with South as a passed hand, are more dependent on shape than controls, so showing 5-5 is better. North still has the strength to bid 5♣ over the 4♥ cuebid and will be able to leave the final decision to South. As South has an opening bid in North's eyes, I would expect South to bid the slam given North's strong bidding and excellent diamond holding. However, as the odds show, all decisions are correct :) p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtfanclub Posted November 16, 2004 Report Share Posted November 16, 2004 West North East South - - Pass Pass Pass 1♠ Pass 2♦ Pass 4♣ Pass 4♥ Pass 4NT Pass 5♣ Pass 5♦ Pass 5♠ Pass Pass Pass OK, I give. Why 2♦? Does that have a different meaning (besides suit) than 2♣? And Card...the way I play it, 3♦ is not forcing, because responder is a passed hand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pclayton Posted November 16, 2004 Report Share Posted November 16, 2004 I'm guessing they play 2 way drury with 2♦ showing a 3 card raise ( I play it the opposite way, with 2♦ showing 4). If 2♦ is some sort of limit raise, then not only is 3♦ forcing, but its a slam try. 4♣ is a splinter slam try the way I play, not an advance cue bid. Its an OK slam; if you pick up the trump suit, the odds of the diamond suit coming in are slightly better than 68%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Free Posted November 16, 2004 Report Share Posted November 16, 2004 I think it's a decent slam. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jlall Posted November 16, 2004 Report Share Posted November 16, 2004 no not a good slam, consider the entry position and the lack of spade 8 in dummy. say you get a heart lead, you play AK pitching your club and a spade to the jack. it loses, you get a heart back, you ruff and lead a diamond to the queen. now you lead a spade to the ten. Even if it wins, if spades are 4-1 you go down. So you will make in these cases: if diamonds are 3-2 (62 %) AND. Hxx of spades onside. (20.3478 %)HHxx of spades onside. (8.4783 %) HHx of spades onside. (10.1739 %)HH of spades onside. (3.3913 %)Hx of spades onside. (20.3478 %)H of spades onside. (5.6522 %) total of spades being "good": 58.2204 % total of both happening: 39.5899 % you also have the added shot of diamonds being 4-1 AND Hxx of spades onside with a 4 card diamond suit. (2.8752 %) This is assuming perfect defense (which means if they have Hx onside in spades and also a stiff diamond, they will pop with their honor on the first round). TOTAL % OF MAKING CONTRACT: 42.6 % bad slam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luke warm Posted November 17, 2004 Report Share Posted November 17, 2004 i don't think it's a good slam either, even tho it made all over the place Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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